Every AI dollar flows through five layers.
Where that money pools, and where it leaks, has become the central question for anyone allocating to this theme. The numbers are worth sitting with.
Layer one is power, and it is now the binding constraint.
Goldman Sachs expects US data center power demand to more than double, from 31 GW in 2025 to 66 GW by 2027. Microsoft has an $80 billion Azure backlog it cannot fulfil, with GPUs sitting idle because the electricity is not there. Demand is not the problem.
Layer two is silicon.
Nvidia's data center segment did $75.2 billion in its latest quarter, up 92% year over year. Most of the stack's profit has pooled in this layer so far.
Layer three is the infrastructure buildout, and this is where the scale gets hard to grasp:
The big five hyperscalers have guided to roughly $650 to $750 billion of 2026 capex, up over 60% from a record 2025
About 75% of that is going into AI infrastructure
Capex intensity now runs from roughly 25% of revenue at Amazon to over 85% at Oracle
They raised over $100 billion of debt in 2025 to help fund it
Those are utility-style capital ratios, increasingly financed through debt markets. That changes the risk profile of businesses long valued as capital-light.
Layer four is the models, and this is where 2026 surprised everyone.
Anthropic went from a $9 billion run rate at the end of 2025 to $47 billion by May, overtaking OpenAI at roughly $25 billion.
Combined, the two leaders now run above $70 billion. Real money, but still a fraction of the near $700 billion being poured in beneath them.
Layer five is applications, still the thinnest layer by revenue.
That is the tension worth watching. The layers with the least revenue today are the ones that must eventually justify everything built below them.
For allocators, the practical takeaway is that "AI exposure" is not one trade.
Power, silicon, infrastructure, models and applications each carry different margins, different capital needs and different failure modes. Sizing them as a single theme misses the point.
*only for informational purposes, not investment advice. Do your own diligence