European football through a value lens. Results and goals markets. Every selection logged before kick-off. Full record. 18+ | Gamble responsibly.
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📊 SATURDAY SELECTIONS
Shrewsbury 3.30
Watford 2.52
Derby 3.10
Tranmere 3.50
Swindon 2.86
Accrington 2.52
Kocaelispor 3.30
Celta–Alavés O2.5 2.32
Trabzonspor 2.94
Getafe 3.15
10 model-value selections. 1pt each.
18+ | Gamble responsibly
89
⚽ MONDAY SELECTION
Mon 26 Oct | 20:00
Walsall v Salford
Walsall to win @ 3.30
Walsall average 2.20 home PPG vs Salford’s 1.67 away. Model xG favours Walsall 1.27–1.22.
Model 2.93 | Net edge +11.1%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
39
⚽ SUNDAY SELECTION
Sun 25 Oct | 17:30
Gent v Anderlecht
Gent to win @ 2.42
Gent are 4W–0D–0L at home with 3.00 PPG. Model xG also favours Gent 1.47–0.98.
Model 2.20 | Net edge +8.5%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
45
⚽ SUNDAY GOALS SELECTION
Sun 25 Oct | 15:15
Celta v Betis
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.93
Model total xG is 3.18. Celta home matches average 3.00 goals; Betis away matches average 3.25.
Model 1.74 | Net edge +9.8%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
38
⚽ SUNDAY SELECTION
Sun 25 Oct | 14:00
Motherwell v Hearts
Motherwell to win @ 3.25
Motherwell allow 1.10 xG at home; Hearts concede 2.17 xG away. Model xG favours the hosts 1.39–1.31.
Model 2.82 | Net edge +13.8%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
55
⚽ SUNDAY SELECTION
Sun 25 Oct | 14:00
Man United v Bournemouth
Man United to win @ 2.30
United average 1.33 home PPG; Bournemouth just 0.33 away. Model xG favours United 2.12–1.49.
Model 2.04 | Net edge +11.3%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
21
⚽ SUNDAY SELECTION
Sun 25 Oct | 13:30
PSV v Feyenoord
Feyenoord to win @ 3.20
Feyenoord are 5W–0D–0L away this season, averaging 3.00 PPG. PSV’s home average is 2.50 PPG.
Model 2.82 | Net edge +12.0%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
40
⚽ SATURDAY SELECTION
Sat 24 Oct | 19:30
Nurnberg v Kaiserslautern
Nurnberg to win @ 2.10
Nurnberg average 2.50 home PPG vs Kaiserslautern’s 1.25 away. Model xG strongly favours the hosts 1.94–1.02.
Model 1.85 | Net edge +12.5%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
17
⚽ SATURDAY SELECTION
Sat 24 Oct | 15:00
Gillingham v Grimsby
Gillingham to win @ 3.30
Gillingham average 1.50 home PPG; Grimsby just 0.67 away. Model xG narrowly favours the hosts 1.32–1.30.
Model 2.92 | Net edge +11.6%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
30
⚽ SATURDAY SELECTION
Sat 24 Oct | 15:00
Burton v Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient to win @ 2.82
Orient average 1.60 away PPG vs Burton’s 1.17 at home. Model xG favours Orient 1.46–1.17.
Model 2.48 | Net edge +12.0%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
22
⚽ SATURDAY SELECTION
Sat 24 Oct | 14:00
Sudtirol v Sampdoria
Sudtirol to win @ 3.00
Sudtirol average 2.00 home PPG; Sampdoria just 0.25 away. Model xG: 1.22–0.95.
Model 2.60 | Net edge +13.7%
1pt | 18+ Gamble responsibly
46
✅ MIDWEEK RESULTS
AFC Wimbledon @ 3.60 ❌ (0–3)
Levante @ 3.75 ✅ (3–1)
Levante–Athletic Bilbao O2.5 @ 2.02 ✅
2/3 winners | +2.69pts | +89.8% ROI
A strong Wednesday double turns the midweek card profitable.
1pt stakes after 2% commission.
18+ | Gamble responsibly
66
⚽ VALUE XI — WEDNESDAY
19:00 Levante v Athletic Bilbao
Levante @ 3.75 | Model 2.99 | Edge +23.6%
Over 2.5 @ 2.02 | Model 1.81 | Edge +10.5%
Levante scored 10 in 3 home games; all went over 2.5, averaging 6.33 goals.
1pt each | 2% commission | 18+ Gamble responsibly
24
⚽ VALUE XI — TUESDAY
19:45 AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield
AFC Wimbledon @ 3.60
Model 3.17 | Net edge +11.9%
Wimbledon: unbeaten with 4 clean sheets in 4 home league games. Mansfield: winless in 4 away, losing 3.
1pt | 2% commission | 18+ Gamble responsibly
25
✅ WEEKEND RESULTS
Fri 0/2: –2.00pts
Sat 3/6: +2.23pts
Sun 1/2: +0.29pts
Mon 1/2: +0.90pts
Overall: 5/12 | +1.43pts | +11.9% ROI
Five winners at prices from 2.32 to 3.30.
1pt stakes after 2% commission.
18+ | Gamble responsibly
5
✅ SATURDAY RESULTS
Watford @ 2.52 ✅
Shrewsbury @ 3.30 ✅
Accrington @ 2.52 ✅
Derby @ 3.10 ❌
Swindon @ 2.86 ❌(Winning at HT 😥)
Tranmere @ 3.50 ❌(Winning at HT 😥)
3/6 winners | +2.23pts | +37.2% ROI
1pt stakes after 2% commission.
18+ | Gamble responsibly
1
88
📊 SATURDAY SELECTION
Getafe @ 3.15 v Vallecano
Vallecano concede 3.00 goals and 2.04 xG per away match.
Model price: 2.40
Net edge: 29.5%
1pt level stake. Value, not certainty.
18+ | Gamble responsibly
29
📊 SATURDAY SELECTION
Trabzonspor @ 2.94 v Beşiktaş
Trabzonspor average 2.58 xG, 16.33 shots and 8.33 shots on target at home.
Model price: 2.38
Net edge: 21.9%
1pt level stake. Value, not certainty.
18+ | Gamble responsibly
44
📊 SATURDAY SELECTION
Celta v Alavés — Over 2.5 @ 2.32
Their relevant venue profiles average 2.76 and 2.70 combined xG, with 9.25 and 8.0 combined shots on target.
Model price: 2.05
Net edge: 11.9%
1pt level stake.
18+ | Gamble responsibly
39
