17% of global crude exports in March came from Iran, Russia, or Venezuela.
That is up roughly 3 percentage points from 2025 levels - and the shift happened fast. As Middle East supply tightened under active conflict conditions, high-risk barrels stepped in to fill the gap.
This is not a marginal story. One in six barrels shipped globally last month came from a sanctioned or high-risk origin.
The floating buffer that had cushioned the supply chain for months is now drawing down: oil on water fell toward end-March as Russia and Iran volumes reduced, and arrivals are outpacing departures by 0.5–0.7 mbd - a signal that April stocks could tighten further.
For crude traders and risk officers, this is the number to watch. The composition of global seaborne supply is changing, and the infrastructure behind it - shadow fleet routing, STS transfers above 40%, sanctioned vessel activity in Asia - is deepening in parallel.
The April 2026 High Risk Flows and Freight Monitor breaks down where every barrel is going, which buyers are absorbing the incremental volumes beyond China, and what the departure-arrival gap means for April balances.
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