Trump’s “stop trading with deficit countries if the Fed doesn’t cut” is real crash trigger, not rate hikes - a real embargo is worse than tariff day, but chance he does the literal thing before midterms are very low.
what Trump can actually do before midterms to help the market
$SPY?
1) high chance of a headline Iran war pause, but low chance it survives contact.
2) ukraine war pause is easier to fake, almost impossible to finish: this pause Russia can rent to Trump for a month fo a political win because this win will crash the US economy.
if he is not retarded he won't embargo countries like Taiwan, China, Mexico or Germany even if they have a deficit with US, but what are the odds of that?
block Taiwan? ai bubble pops and kill the economy
block China? it attacks Taiwan and ai bubble pops
block Mexico and Germany? auto crisis for Midwest
this would be like a war time blockede of yourself, is it not?