EXCUSE ME, TEACHER ...
Journalists are trained to be jacks of all trades and masters of none. They can go from reporting on the Kenya Society for the Protection and Care of Animals in the morning to crunching debt numbers in the afternoon.
It comes from asking the right questions. Before that, it needs to be stated that if the refinery investment works, Lamu may prove to be the most consequential strategic infrastructure decision Kenya has made.
Strategic infrastructure can create returns that do not immediately appear on a balance sheet. Lamu now has the potential to become an energy and industrial hub.
Only months ago, Kenya appeared to have lost another regional energy contest. Uganda had chosen the Tanzania route for its crude export pipeline, giving Tanga a major strategic advantage.
Then, in April 2026, President William Ruto publicly announced discussions about a regional refinery in Tanga involving Kenya, Uganda and other countries.
Four months later, Kenya was breaking ground on a proposed $16 billion, 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Lamu. At the launch, Yoweri Museveni was not sounding very happy that he was not in Tanga...
Dangote matters because he has demonstrated the capacity to undertake infrastructure on a scale few African private investors can contemplate. He wants access to the landlocked markets of East Africa, particularly Ethiopia. Kenya wants to anchor more of the regional energy economy on its territory. But strategic importance is not a substitute for due diligence.
The greater the prize, the higher the obligation to get the terms right. So, here goes.
1. When was the Lamu refinery EIA application submitted to NEMA?
When were the Terms of Reference approved? When did the baseline studies commence?
When and where were the statutory public consultations held? When was the EIA study submitted? Which lead agencies reviewed it?
And on what date did NEMA issue the EIA licence?
NEMA's own rules say oil refineries and petrochemical works require environmental impact assessments. The EIA is supposed to precede implementation, affected people are to be consulted and the proponent must obtain an EIA licence before commencement. NEMA says its standard review period for a duly completed application is 45–90 days and advises proponents to apply at least three months before they intend to start.
In April, the project was being discussed with Tanga in Tanzania.
Then the conversation moved to Mombasa. Then Lamu.
The project is now officially described as a Sh2.2 trillion, $16 billion investment, incorporating a 1,000MW power plant and associated petrochemical and chemical facilities.
Seeing the dates when the application for the Lamu site was made, reviewed and approved would settle this question easily.
Maybe applications were submitted for Tanga, Mombasa and Lamu.
Maybe parallel baseline studies were under way simultaneously.
Maybe statutory public consultations were held at each site, community objections were received and addressed, lead agencies reviewed the assessment and all conditions were met before NEMA issued the necessary licence.
Searches of publicly accessible NEMA and EPRA material have not identified a project-specific EIA licence for the refinery. That is not proof that no licence exists. It is a reason for NEMA to put the document on the table.
2. What exactly has Kenya agreed to buy?
Kenya has been offered a 10 per cent stake in the refinery.
But Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi says the ownership structure has not yet been finalised, and Kenya could increase its stake if other regional governments do not take up their allocations. Regional governments have been offered up to 30 per cent collectively.
So what exactly has Kenya agreed to buy? At what price?