Simplifying stocks, businesses & the Indian economy. Beyond the numbers: earnings, valuation & business. CMA & CIMA + NISM Certified RA & Gujarati
Gujarat,India
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Peshwa Wheat IPO - I am skipping this one.
Not because the numbers are bad. Actually, the numbers are exactly what caught my attention.
1. Revenue jumped from ₹43.8 crore in FY24 to ₹216 crore in FY26.
2. PAT increased from ₹5.2 crore to ₹15.8 crore.
3. At ₹101, the post issue valuation is around 12x FY26 earnings.
Looks cheap.
But then I asked myself one simple question:
How much history do we really have?
The company was incorporated as a public limited company only in December 2023. Yes, the underlying business existed earlier as a partnership, but the listed corporate history is still very short.
And there is another thing I don't like ignoring.
PAT margin has fallen from nearly 12% to around 7%.
Revenue is growing much faster than profitability.
Now the company is also raising money for expansion and working capital. So the next part of the story depends on execution.
Can they utilise the new capacity?
Can they maintain margins?
Will receivables remain under control?
Will operating cash flow actually follow the reported profit?
We don't know yet.That's the problem.
The valuation may be attractive. The business may eventually become a good investment. But today, I don't have enough history to take that call with confidence.
So my decision is simple:
IPO: Skip
Company: Keep watching
Valuation: Interesting
Risk: Still too much uncertainty
If the business delivers for the next 2 to 3 years, I would rather buy later with more data than buy today because the spreadsheet looks attractive.
Sometimes the opportunity is not the IPO.
The opportunity is what happens after the company proves itself.
#PeshwaWheat #PeshwaWheatIPO #IPO
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3 min me paisa double ! What A Move
22,800 Nifty slip today? Anyone?
If this level breaks, I’m leaving the market. I’ve had enough.
Anyone else feeling the same?
#nifty #icicibank
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22,800 Nifty slip today? Anyone?
If this level breaks, I’m leaving the market. I’ve had enough.
Anyone else feeling the same?
#nifty #icicibank
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NSE profit Rs 10k Crore - Market cap Rs 5L Crore
BSE profit 2.5 Crore - Market cap Rs 1.3L crore
Bajaj Finance Profit Rs 20k crore - Market cap Rs 6L Crore
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GIFTNIFTY around 23,350.
After yesterday’s weak close, the market is again trying to start positive.
But here is what makes today interesting.
Crude has fallen below $90.
Bitcoin has jumped above $86,000.
US tech stocks are strong.
And global risk appetite is improving.
For US, lower oil is a big relief. It takes some pressure off the rupee, inflation and corporate costs.
But there is still a problem.
FIIs sold nearly Rs 3,810 crore yesterday, while DIIs bought around Rs 4,120 crore.
So domestic money is absorbing the selling, but foreign investors are still reducing exposure.
Nifty closed at 23,329.
23,200–23,000 remains the important support zone.
23,400 is the first level I want to see reclaimed, followed by 23,600.
Bank Nifty also needs to hold above 56,000 if this recovery is to continue.
Gold remains elevated.
Silver is still strong.
Bitcoin above $86,000 is an interesting signal for global risk appetite.
Crude below $90 is probably the biggest positive change for us this morning.
Can Nifty finally turn this bounce into a proper recovery?
23,000 is still the line I don’t want to see broken.
#Nifty50 #BankNifty #GIFTNIFTY #FII #DII #Bitcoin #Gold
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Nacho BC #Giftnifty
BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 extends gains to over +2% on the day as the tech rally gains momentum.
The S&P 500 has now added +$1 trillion in market cap today.
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India market and rupee update
#GIFTNIFTY around 23,300.
US talking about tariffs of up to 100% on India.
US–Iran tensions.
Fed has raised rates.
And yet… Indian markets are not exactly panicking.
Why?
Because markets don’t trade the headline alone.
The 100% tariff is a serious risk, but it is not a blanket 100% tariff on everything India exports to the US. The actual impact depends on what gets covered and how the measure is implemented.
And then look at crude.
Oil has fallen sharply towards $94.
That is a big relief for India.
Cheaper crude means less pressure on the import bill, the rupee, inflation and corporate costs. This is probably one reason the market is not reacting to the geopolitical headlines in a straight line.
Nifty is around 23,300.
23,000 remains the level I am watching.
Above 23,500, the recovery starts looking stronger.
Below 23,000, the picture changes quickly.
Bank Nifty remains around the 56,000–57,000 zone.
USD/INR is near Rs 96.
Gold remains elevated.
Silver remains strong.
Bitcoin is around $81,000.
So today’s market is giving us a very simple message:
Bad headlines do not automatically mean bad markets.
Watch what actually changes in the numbers.
Right now, tariff risk is high.
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