WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
Tampa, FL
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I particularly like the word “Final”… has a nice ring to it.
The final thing to watch for any real Atlantic candidates this year is something near the Yucatan or Southern Gulf over the next couple of weeks.
Google DeepMind (both the 1000-member version and the newer WNV3) has had a fairly persistent signal, though it's only ~20% of members right now.
The mechanism for development would likely be convergence along the tail end of a front, and possibly a contribution from something crossing over from the East Pacific. These are plausible development pathways, but historically we haven't seen anything significant come from this during very strong El Niños.
If nothing comes from this signal, I think there's a very real chance we end the season with zero Atlantic hurricanes. We are already starting to see indications of a robust subtropical jet starting to drop south in a couple weeks. This will probably end the hurricane season for the CONUS and start the transition to what will likely be a very wet winter along the Gulf Coast.
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It’s astonishing how far ahead the 2026 El Niño is. The red line is 2026. The other warmest El Niños are the colored lines. It’s not even playing in the same league.
Some of this is of course due to this natural El Niño cycle on top of long-term ocean warming. For years 90% of excess heat being retained by our climate system has been going into the oceans. Much of that ends up in the West Pacific Warm Pool, so when the trades slacken and the Pacific rearranges itself, that heat comes back to haunt us.
#elnino
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The stadium effect and meso vortices inside #hurricane #Nolo ‘s eye are 2nd to none. Another text book Pacific storm.
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JUST IN: El Niño just Broke its Hottest Temperature on Record🥵
The El Niño 3.4 region average SST just surpassed 2015 for the highest temp ever measured in the El Niño (3.4) region. (Recently it broke the SST anomaly, this time it’s the absolute temp)
It comes 2 months earlier than typical peak (late Nov/ Dec). That means there’s still 2 months left of intensification in the 2026 event. And all meteorological signs show it will continue. It’s headed past the record, and to heights we’d never imagined it could reach. Image: Copernicus Climate Pulse #elniño #elnino
Breaking News!
Code: FUBAR!!!
The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature for September 25th was 29.822°C. This breaks the previous highest temperature ever recorded in the region of 29.815°C, set on November 17th, 2015.
The Climate 8-ball is exiting, stage right.
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There’s actually a very interesting story of survival of the even bigger 1958 - 1700 ft Alaskan #Tsunami
👀“The wave, in a remote and uninhabited area, reached a height of nearly 500m, just hours after a cruise ship had visited the fjord”
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Here’s the ingredients that led to the biblical flood in the Southern Appalachians during #helene
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Jeff Berardelli retweeted
A man in Mexico risks his life to save someone, then casually goes back to work
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2 years ago tonight #Hurricane #Helene was wreaking havoc. It was 2X the average size of a storm in the Gulf and that’s one reason why it was so impactful.
But tonight it couldn’t be nicer. I’m enjoying the break! Bet you are too.
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Two years ago today #Helene devastated #Florida and the Southern Appalachians, especially western #NorthCarolina near #Asheville. Here’s are the reasons it became a biblical event. Days before Helene’s landfall, what we call a predecessor rain event saturated the ground. Then the storm was captured by an upper level low and slammed into the mountains, squeezing all the moisture out. This whole process made the #flood that much worse, with tremendous run off cascading down hills. Water overrunning towns and sweeping homes away. Lives changed forever. 💔
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Two years ago today, Hurricane Helene changed Tampa Bay.
Helene’s center passed more than 100 miles offshore, yet its enormous wind field pushed big water into Tampa Bay and shattered 100 year storm surge records in the area.
For many families, the flooding was unlike anything they had experienced before.
Our TV station was surrounded. The only way out was through chest deep water and some creative maneuvers.
Where were you when Helene came through? Did your house flood?
#hurricane #HELENE
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Helene’s 2-year anniversary is this weekend. Despite the center staying 100 miles west of Tampa Bay, the area had 5-8 feet of surge - the worst in 100 years. Up to 15 feet of surge in Big Bend!
Arguably the worst impacts were in the Southern Appalachian mountains of NC, GA, TN, SC where some towns were virtually wiped off the map by 3 feet of rain and flood water cascading down mountainsides. It was devastating and some of us are still picking up the pieces all this time later. #Hurricane #HELENE
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Like a rocket ship.
Thanks, El Niño
Wow, just wow. The 2026 Pacific hurricane season east of the IDL is now ranked #2 & not far from surpassing 1992. Now I want to be clear that this does not mean we will surpass 300 ACE points, but the fact is that we might pass 1992 in ACE points at this rate on a given day due to 3 hurricanes churning at the same time, with 2 of them now being major. With Nolo forecasted to become a major in a few days, it would not shock me if we get to 300 ACE in the next week or two.
Fun fact: We have been accumulating around 10-15 ACE points per day since September 21st.
Running the calculations shows that we should reach 300 ACE in about 8-12 days (October 2-6) and break the all-time record by October 10th due to a 90% AOI in the EPAC that looks to become a hurricane in the next 5-8 days.
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Coral scientist @BillPrecht :
Most of the loss of coral worldwide is due to climate change. Climate change is the existential threat to coral:
piped.video/sZBeEeV8P_g?is=MbG9…
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#Polo is putting on a show right now. A 180-mph storm, and look at all that lightning near the core! It just keeps trying to get stronger.
3rd time it’s been a Cat 5 in its life cycle.
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