20+ years Buy & Sell side. Macro trends. Not investment advice.
New York, NY
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COMMODITIES DURING
-SPANISH FLU/WW1
-GREAT DEPRESSION
-WW2
-70s OIL CRISIS
-GFC 👇👇👇
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What to watch
Current read
LEI, new orders, permits, claims, credit, yield curve
Cautious, but not recessionary
Cyclical conditions
ISM, industrial production, employment, consumer spending, credit spreads
Still expanding, but slowing
Profit-margin momentum
Strong
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AAII SURVEY: BEARISH SENTIMENT HITS 53.3%, HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2025; BULL-BEAR SPREAD WIDENS TO -24.5 POINTS, WIDEST SINCE MAY 2025
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Are the AI companies really going to slow down
No—not in any coordinated, industry-wide, or lasting way that meaningfully halts frontier progress. Leading US labs are signaling “pacing” (slower capability jumps so safety testing, monitoring, and alignment can catch up)
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
What happens if you only own the largest company in the S&P 500?
James Eagle
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Best movie
38%
Interstellar
22%
Inception
28%
No Country for Old Men
12%
There will be blood
65 votes • Final results
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
BREAKING: Democrats are now projected to sweep the 2026 midterms, taking both the Senate & House.
51% chance.
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