Everything passes

$MARA: a progress report, since management isn't writing one. May shareholder letter: "We intend to communicate clearly as our pipeline advances." Everything communicated since the Aug 6 call: ??? — ??? That's the list. Here's what happened in the silence: • Stock: −45% in a month, −65% in a year, a whisker above the 52-week low. Over five years bitcoin is up. MARA is down 87%. At some point "it's the cycle" stops being an explanation. • August, the CEO: "The foundation has been built. Our focus now is monetizing it." Eleven weeks later, the only thing visibly leaving the building is the bitcoin: ~2,000 BTC (~$164M) moved to Galaxy and exchanges this month. Explanation to shareholders: none. On-chain trackers are now MARA's most responsive IR department. • Long Ridge: the seller guided a Q3 close. Q3 is over. FERC approval was expected "soon." The PJM market monitor, which asked FERC to attach conditions, filed again in September. Shareholders learned that from the docket, not from MARA. • Leases: "at least two by year-end." But Hannibal lease signing is paused until Long Ridge closes, so the lease target now hangs on a regulator management can't hurry and won't discuss. • Starwood JV: announced in February, ~1 GW "near-term." Eight months, zero tenants announced. And the 8-K fine print: once Starwood lands a qualifying hyperscaler lease, if MARA doesn't come in, it must sell its rights to the powered land to Starwood. "Capital-light" sounds elegant until you notice who's light on capital. • Funding: $600M of new bitcoin-backed debt at ~7.6%, leaving ~54% of the stack pledged. HODL, but make it collateral. • The CFO sold 16,000 shares at $7.88 on Oct 19. Retail got the silence for free. Then there's investor relations. In the $MARA Bulls chat, a board member of a competitor dropped by to advertise a BGDE chat run by the same host, where, she noted, the executives are in the mix talking directly with shareholders. "No velvet ropes." A rival's director walked into MARA's living room to mention that over at her place, management actually shows up. Nobody from MARA objected. What would they have said? The host of that chat says her largest position in the sector is BGDE, plus CIFR, WULF, CLSK and KEEL. MARA didn't make the list. When the person hosting the MARA bulls chat doesn't name MARA among her holdings, what exactly is the pitch? Meet @OGAdvisors: "IR for Bitcoin & AI," followed by @MARA's own account, with other miners and competitors on the client roster. Running a rival's chat while a rival's director recruits from yours isn't investor relations. It's a referral service, and MARA shareholders are the ones being referred. The problem isn't #bitcoin; every miner lives with the same bitcoin. JPMorgan's double downgrade said it politely: peers convert their own power into compute, MARA hands it to a partner and keeps a slice. Close Long Ridge. Sign a lease. Put a Q3 date on the calendar. And ask @OGAdvisors whose shareholders they're actually building. @MARA @fgthiel
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Does this look like natural price action to anyone? $MARA 4 weeks, 2 "green" candles −49% from the Sep high in 4 weeks 5 of 6 peers closed green yesterday. MARA: red −3% premarket, $7.15 Totally organic.... right?
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Uncomfortable stats for @MARA. 3Y returns: $WULF +1,006% $IREN +795% $HUT +662% $CIFR +248% $CLSK +119% $RIOT +58% $MARA −4% This week's dump is sector wide but the 3 year gap isn't.
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The market wiped the AI premium off $MARA. No signed contract to hold a floor. So it fell to the only floor it has: its bitcoin. Market cap: $2.91B Bitcoin: ~$2.94B Bitcoin + cash (last reported): ~$3.36B Sep 22 → Oct 16: Bitcoin: −4% MARA: −45% Here's what the market now prices at $0 to shareholders: Mining ▪️ 70.3 EH/s fleet ▪️ 2,422 BTC mined last quarter. ~26 a day. Power: 19 sites, 4 continents, 1.9 GW energized ▪️ Wolf Hollow, TX: 246 MW ▪️ Hannibal, OH: 200 MW operating, path to 600 ▪️ Garden City, TX: 132 MW, path to 200 ▪️ Hansford, TX: 114 MW on its own wind farm ▪️ Kearney, NE: 100 MW, path to 368 ▪️ UAE + Paraguay JVs: 350 MW gross Pipeline ▪️ Long Ridge: 505 MW gas plant, 1,600+ acres, own gas supply, ~$144M EBITDA, 70%+ contracted. Awaiting FERC. ▪️ Matagorda, TX: up to 2 GW on 1,200+ acres. Pending approvals. ▪️ Starwood JV: ~1 GW near-term IT capacity, path to 2.5 GW. ▪️ MPLX LOI: 400 MW gas-fired power, scalable to 1.5 GW. AI ▪️ Exaion: 64% of EDF's AI cloud unit. Runs critical infrastructure for EDF's nuclear fleet. Selected for the EU's AION consortium. What's missing: ▪️ A signed AI lease. CEO: 2 by year-end, "very confident." Signed so far: 0. Floor: bitcoin. Everything above it: $0. @fgthiel, the market has priced everything you've built at $0. 52 trading days left in the year. @MARA
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$MARA asked FERC to approve its biggest deal by July 7. Then by September 10. It's October 15. Still no order. What's in the docket (EC26-92, Long Ridge): ▪️ Aug 25: FERC deems the application deficient. The question: did BlackRock (16.8%) & Vanguard (12.4%) buy into MARA before it became a holding company? If so, their affiliates could count as MARA's. ▪️ Sep 1: @MARA confirms both already held >10% before that point. Then tells FERC it's "not aware of any Commission precedent" for that outcome. ▪️ Sep 14: Thiel on 2 AI leases by year-end: "very confident" ▪️ Sep 15: PJM's market monitor: reject it, or keep it deficient. ▪️ Sep 23: @MARA asks FERC to "expeditiously grant." Dec 2024: FERC approved MARA's Great Plains deal. Same two shareholders. It didn't ask about them then. The clock: ▪️ Nov 30: deal outside date (extendable to Jun 30, 2027) ▪️ Dec 31: "at least 2 leases" ▪️ Leases announced so far: 0 $MARA doesn't pick its shareholders. FERC is asking about them anyway.
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16 red candles in a row. Not a single green candle on $MARA since September 22. Record streak. ▪️ $13.63 → $8.23 in 16 sessions. −40%. ~$2B of market cap gone. ▪️ Past month: $BTC +6% | $MARA −27% ▪️ Past year: $BTC −28% | $MARA −63% Balance sheet: ▪️ Market cap: $3.17B ▪️ 35,577 BTC (last reported) ≈ $2.9B → ~$7.60 of bitcoin behind every $8.23 share ▪️ Debt: ~$2.3B in convertible notes (~85% at a 0% coupon) + $600M in BTC-backed loans Positioning: ▪️ 27% of the float sold short (100.75M shares) ▪️ RSI 25. Price 28% below its 20-day average ▪️ Today's −9.7% came on 0.8x average volume The Street: ▪️ Morgan Stanley (Underweight): $10 ▪️ JPMorgan (Underweight): $11 ▪️ Consensus: $18.23 Even the bears' targets are above today's price. No opinion. Just numbers.
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$MARA closed its 14th straight red daily candle yesterday. New all-time record. And premarket is already painting #15. Last week I flagged it at 10. Since then: no AI lease, no FERC approval, no press release. $9.25 premarket. 52-week high was $23.45. That's -60%. July 2024, CEO Fred Thiel: "Adopting a full HODL strategy reflects our confidence in the long-term value of bitcoin." Q4 2024: MARA bought 15,574 BTC at an average of $98,531. March 2026: MARA sold 15,133 BTC at ~$72.7K. IR had called reports it would dump most of its BTC "factually incorrect." By June 30, 34% of the stack was gone. Who paid for those coins? You did. Shares outstanding: 82M at the end of 2020. 382M today. 4.7x. Net loss, last 12 months: $3.46B. 2025: MARA lost $1.3B. Thiel was awarded $27.1M, including a $2.2M cash bonus. The core bonus metric? "Hashrate Hours." Not profit. Not share price. Machines running. Shareholders noticed. 78% of votes cast went against executive pay. Same meeting: 18M more shares added to the equity plan. This June: another 18M. And every month, like clockwork, the CEO sells 27,505 shares under his 10b5-1 plan. May. June. July. August. September. He gets a schedule. Shareholders get silence. Sep 14, Thiel: "we feel very confident about signing the 2 leases by year-end." 79 days left. Meanwhile $WULF, $HUT, $CLSK and $CORZ have all signed billion-dollar AI deals. 27% of the float is sold short. The market has already placed its bet. Nov 11 is earnings. Either a lease shows up, or this streak was the preview.
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Update: $MARA is now on its 12th consecutive red day. The all-time record is 13 consecutive red days. Current market cap: just $3.83 billion. @MARA @fgthiel @theRealSalKhan We, MARA investors, salute you! 🫡🎊
$MARA closed its 10th straight red daily candle yesterday, and premarket is already painting #11. The all-time record is 13, set last fall right as the slide from ~$23 began. Today it trades near $11. Three more ties the record. Four more, and we're in uncharted territory. And the company? Silent. Not a single press release since the Q2 report on Aug 6. Here's what shareholders have been asked to wait for: ▪️ Feb 26: Starwood JV, a "2.5 GW AI platform." Seven months later, zero signed tenants. ▪️ Apr 30: $1.5B Long Ridge acquisition. Still waiting on FERC. ▪️ Aug 6: "At least two AI/HPC leases by year-end." 12 weeks left. Nothing announced. Meanwhile, in July alone: • $WULF signed $19B with Anthropic • $HUT signed another $9.8B • $CLSK signed $6.6B • $CORZ inked an AMD deal (~$14B est.) The company that preached HODL sold 15,133 BTC in March. Holdings down 29% YoY. Q2 revenue down 27%. Net loss: $611M. The market isn't punishing @MARA for bad news. It's punishing it for no news. The chart is talking, @fgthiel. When are you?
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$MARA closed its 10th straight red daily candle yesterday, and premarket is already painting #11. The all-time record is 13, set last fall right as the slide from ~$23 began. Today it trades near $11. Three more ties the record. Four more, and we're in uncharted territory. And the company? Silent. Not a single press release since the Q2 report on Aug 6. Here's what shareholders have been asked to wait for: ▪️ Feb 26: Starwood JV, a "2.5 GW AI platform." Seven months later, zero signed tenants. ▪️ Apr 30: $1.5B Long Ridge acquisition. Still waiting on FERC. ▪️ Aug 6: "At least two AI/HPC leases by year-end." 12 weeks left. Nothing announced. Meanwhile, in July alone: • $WULF signed $19B with Anthropic • $HUT signed another $9.8B • $CLSK signed $6.6B • $CORZ inked an AMD deal (~$14B est.) The company that preached HODL sold 15,133 BTC in March. Holdings down 29% YoY. Q2 revenue down 27%. Net loss: $611M. The market isn't punishing @MARA for bad news. It's punishing it for no news. The chart is talking, @fgthiel. When are you?
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Xanny retweeted
$MARA | Jones Trading 𝗿𝗲𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝘆 on 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀, PT $𝟮𝟮 Analyst sees favorable risk-reward as MARA pursues its first major AI contract despite unsettled timing.
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Xanny retweeted
.@MARA Amended the purchase agreement for a Texas digital infrastructure site with 2,000 MW of power capacity ⚡ by posting a $100M security deposit, restructuring payment milestones, and replacing reconveyance rights with a site sale framework. $MARA
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I think I found one of the most mispriced AI infrastructure stocks in the market. It controls billions of dollars worth of power infrastructure. I broke down exactly why I’m buying it here:
Article

This $11 Stock Is the Next AI Giant

Dear Investor, I first bought this stock in 2020 at an average price of roughly $0.95. At the time, the company was going through a massive transformation into Bitcoin mining. Almost nobody cared

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MARA & Starwood’s 368 MW Project Horizon data center in Kearney has received City Council approval. Phase 1 will convert MARA’s existing 100 MW Bitcoin mining infrastructure into a data center, with completion targeted for late 2027. The most interesting point for $MARA investors: The biggest catalyst still ahead is the TENANT. Starwood’s role includes securing a hyperscale tenant, and MARA has already confirmed active discussions with multiple potential tenants, including major hyperscalers, targeting at least one signed lease by the end of 2026. The story is now becoming much clearer: 100MW Bitcoin Mine → Project Horizon → City Approval ✅ → Hyperscaler Lease ❓ → AI/HPC Conversion → Potential Expansion to 368MW If MARA announces a major hyperscaler as the tenant, that could be a significantly bigger catalyst than the city approval itself.
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Hi @grok how many $MARA shares has @MorganStanley added since the Underweight, and who exactly at 1585 Broadway is buying what the research desk is selling?
Is Morgan Stanley getting incrementally more positive on @MARA? "We recently had the opportunity to interview MARA CEO and Executive Chairman Fred Thiel, and we were encouraged by Fred's bullishness on the potential to sign two HPC data center transactions before year-end . . . the feedback that the AI industry has a heightened sense of urgency to secure power, plus MARA management commentary, implies that we could be wrong in our conservatism."
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$MARA at a $3.46B market cap is an embarrassment for management. This is a company with 35,000+ BTC, massive energy infrastructure, mining operations, power assets and an expanding AI/HPC platform. Yes, there is debt. Yes, the business is capital intensive. But when the entire equity is valued at just $3.46B despite that asset base, shareholders should be asking serious questions. And here’s the most frustrating part: Even if management announced a blockbuster AI/HPC deal tomorrow and the stock rallied nearly 80% from here to $16, shareholders would simply be back at a price $MARA was trading at only a few weeks ago - without that “blockbuster deal”. That says everything about how much shareholder value has already been destroyed. At some point, management has to stop selling investors on “future potential” and start unlocking the value of the assets they already control. The market isn’t saying @MARA has no assets. It doesn’t trust management to turn those assets into shareholder value.
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Morgan Stanley covering analyst Stephen Byrd pushed absurd $5.50 $MARA price targets in Q2 while his major global financial services firm Morgan Stanley loaded 1.5 million shares (6.7M total) Talking a stock down while loading up is a textbook institutional accumulation strategy
"Morgan Stanley" acquired 1,547,465 shares of $MARA in Q2 2026 which is a 29.65% increase This institution has accumulated 6,766,861 Long shares of MARA as of 6/30/2026 fintel.io/so/us/mara/morgan-…
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Xanny retweeted
$MARA $MS giving a $6 price target meanwhile gathering shares at a much higher price and have been for quite some time. They aren't fooling anyone but yet @blockspace posts it as gospel (who is sponsored by clsk). 🤣. 🤡show.
"Morgan Stanley" acquired 1,547,465 shares of $MARA in Q2 2026 which is a 29.65% increase This institution has accumulated 6,766,861 Long shares of MARA as of 6/30/2026 fintel.io/so/us/mara/morgan-…
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The part that changes everything for the miners: OpenAI has no investment-grade credit rating. The fix? $NVDA wraps the lease so lenders relax. Sound familiar? Google already wrapped Fluidstack's leases at $WULF and $CIFR. NVDA just scaled the same template to $250B. "No IG tenant will ever sign with a bitcoin miner" was the last bear argument against $MARA's pivot. It just died. Bonus math: $250B ÷ 10GW = $25B per GW in lease + debt guarantees. $MARA controls ~2.2GW and still trades like a pure miner. Do the math.
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PJM is now officially reporting a 6.8 GW power shortfall for the 2028/29 planning year. Which means connected power inside PJM is becoming even more valuable. Long Ridge sits right in PJM. $MARA isn’t just buying land they’re acquiring an operating power plant with existing interconnection, gas, water and fiber. It reinforces @fgthiel (CEO of MARA) thesis that power is the bottleneck for AI infrastructure, and assets like Long Ridge only become more strategic as the grid tightens.
Largest US power Grid Misses Power Target; PJM is Short the Equivalent of Seven Nuclear Reactors
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