I am not as smart as I sound, so please don't listen to me

EUCALYPTUS TREE, Jan 3, 2022 (Newswire) 7:00 AM: The koala is an unrestricted free agent There is no pre-contract or handshake on a max deal to be signed on a certain date What will come in '22, let's see, but until then no compliance regime Let the mayhem begin...

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You know what, the Koala is feeling a little bored these days and needs some excitement in the eucalyptus tree Let's follow along with a friend on a rates trade just to feel something Long $RKT Even if the USG actually does lose control of the back end, they'll surely try some serious YCC first before it's truly lost
$RKT has huge torque if rates reverse Long.
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Taken a small punt on Lux Metals $LXM.V in the eucalyptus tree Trans-Taiga Corridor has been good to the Koala in the past and the geology looks fascinating Curious to see how the drilling looks this season TBD if it works but sometimes you have to just do things for the plot
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Not going mega size here 9 months ago when the CEO and Chair roadshowed through New York was one of the koala’s biggest mistakes of the past year And seeing Mt Todd go today, Glenburgh is going to have suitors Will majors be willing to pay the number required or be brave enough to go ahead of an actual JORC resource estimate is the question
$BNZ Nothing to see here...
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“So after over 10+ years living in redacted you moved to a state with no income taxes?” Well guess we will find out next 12-24 months if that CEO is delusional or knows how to close a deal
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Well looks like we have our answer on Artemis $ARTG.V now
Replying to @YellowLabLife
We are, and have been in hindsight for 18 months, into the middle of the cycle where capital isn’t looking to de-capitalize / harvest from the mining sector and instead realizing there is actually value creation opportunities in the sector So it’s not about your capital returns (buyback and dividends) but your opportunity set to grow and deploy capital for attractive returns (and of course, you know, execute said opportunities without catastrophic errors) It’s the first question phrase another way but “what’s your unique / company specific runway to create alpha for your shareholders” An example (and the koala is open to input here): Artemis with Blackwater has been a brilliant vision and execution, but after the current optimization…what’s “the next opportunity” in that company? And besides being in Canada so could allow some peers to utilize Canadian tax loss pools not currently being utilized…what’s the lever for a potential acquiror to create incremental value at Blackwater? So what does Artemis do from here? How does it further drive alpha like it has since buying Blackwater from New Gold (RIP)? You don’t sell it per se but what’s basis to get new money to buy into it? There very well may be one, haven’t dug in beyond skimming the latest deck and a few old meeting notes, but that’s sort of where the fresh $ will get trying to decide whether to start digging deeper into the situation 3/n
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Flight delayed to Colorado so a few musings from the Koala ahead of Beaver Creek week: Since last Beaver Creek, $GDX up ~35% While $GLD up ~20% Given how crude and diesel have performed this year, think barring some major changes in fuel prices you have to think next 12 months the @TraderPamplona view of GLD over GDX makes sense A key question for every meeting is what in the portfolio today can be a major catalyst for NAV uplift before next years conference or even BMO Because as we go into budgeting season for producers, the Koala suspects the fuel prices in everyone’s models for 2027 are probably low versus what will be used in budgeting to issue guidance in Jan/Feb Means if energy product supply chain does normalize we probably have upside to initial guidance in 2027 BUT it’s not hard to imagine in Florida late February 2027 the buyside is normalizing company guides for different oil/diesel assumptions and bringing numbers down for 2027 all else equal 1/n
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What commodities will we not be talking about? Gold/Silver Copper Critical Minerals Will be the main topics Not expecting to hear the words nickel and lithium much this week…always a good barometer to check for where fast money is and isn’t 6/n
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Anyways that’s just the koala organizing its thoughts out loud Should be a great week 7/7
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Looks like the Koala may be spending a few more days at Beaver Creek than originally planned, give the eucalyptus tree a ping if good idea to catch up in person
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Yellow Lab Life Capital retweeted
🔔 NEWS ALERT: TNR Gold Would Rather Cancel Meeting Than Face Shareholders - $TNR.V ceo.ca/@newswire/tnr-gold-wo…
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Hot take but an F1 Sprint in Monaco may be super entertaining because any driver crazy enough to try to pass probably would be able to just because no one defending (especially in a top car) would want to risk crashing their car <4 hours before qualifying
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We’ve had a new wardrobe option proposed for Tuesday in the eucalyptus tree And it’s transformed the whole navy suit/business formal versus preppy chic discussion
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Someone asked the Koala this morning why it was so excited by the Blue Moon $BMM $MOON.V deal with EQ Resources $EQR.AX and Elmet $ELMT given the "implied valuation" And now the Koala realizes some investors may not understand it's JUST on the APT plant That's basically "the smelter" that takes the concentrate from the Springer mill and turns it into the tungsten form we think about when we talk about "what is the tungsten price" But what's also exciting here is the potential offtake terms for the concentrate Springer will sell concentrate to the APT plant "the same pricing terms that EQ receives for its offtake into the APT Plant pursuant to the EQ Offtake Agreement" Anyone whose been on the EQ Resources journey early this year knows a big question was what are those payablities, you can back out from their results last couple quarters they are getting a mid-70s payability on current contracts So the APT plant at Springer will probably be buying for 75-80% payability and selling APT at...the tungsten APT price Within that 20-25% of "free metal" the APT plant will have processing/refining costs...this is not a high margin portion of the value add chain but it is strategic This deal is just around "the smelter" and doesn't include the mill at Springer or the tungsten resource itself but we know now where the concentrate will be refined into APT and Blue Moon doesn't have to put up that capital Bear in mind, after Year 5, Springer/Blue Moon has most favored nation status for 90% of the APT plant capacity, that's 3,600 t or 360k MTU You can do your own maths on what that makes Springer mine and mill worth at different tungsten prices if that's the potential annual production from the mill
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Wow that's truly a once in a Blue Moon $BMM $MOON.V transaction to rebuild the upstream western tungsten supply chain EQ Resources $EQR.AX knows tungsten so must have been super impressed with the APT plant at Springer It's like the Koala said after visiting Springer in May, anyone trying to solve the dependence on China for tungsten who steps into that plant will go "yes" Setting aside the geopolitical and strategic nature of this deal, a few incremental thoughts: Equity coming into Blue Moon at C$10 with a 3 year warrant at C$10.85 (but to fair, TEG is given BM some warrants too so the warrants sort of a wash)...that's a strong endorsement of the company versus Friday share price of C$7.60 Nussir looks really sexy at these copper prices but looking at this deal and what it suggests Springer TUNGSTEN is worth does it even matter at below C$10/share? Don't think there is any value for Nussir in the share price below C$10/share For Christian, I hope the market now sees what I've seen the past 2 years in how much he has grown from the early Adventus days when he was first an executive. Serious people take him seriously and want to do serious deals with him, this is Exhibit A You start to wonder how in the world the combined enterprise values of EQ Resources (~A$2Bn market cap, de minimis net debt) and Blue Moon (~C$1Bn market cap at C$10/share, de minimis net debt) doesn't exceed Almonty (US$4+ billion market cap) Springer...$20 million in late 2025 to get a mill to run DSO from Blue Moon in Mariposa through once that underground decline was finished... Less than 12 months later its a high nine figures, maybe even a 10 figures ($1 billion) value assets, maybe THE deal of this critical minerals supercycle so far
Blue Moon, The Elmet Group, and EQ Resources Announce a US$150-$175 Million Investment into the Springer Tungsten Complex, Nevada, to Strengthen the U.S. Tungsten Supply Chain $MOON.V tinyurl.com/22bkzpwv
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Looks like some people walked through the Springer Mill and APT plant this summer $BMM $MOON.V

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Some people spend the Friday before Memorial Day Weekend trying to beat the traffic…the Koala spends it using a blacklight to stare at scheelite in the Nevada desert Pretty clear Blue Moon $BMM $MOON.V has a multi year lead on every other western tungsten project with the mill and APT plant already constructed here on site at Springer
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