I'm a bull on this merger. I'm a bull on
$TSLA and
$SPCX before it, and I'd be a bull on the combined company after it. Rockets, Starlink, AI, EVs, energy under one roof is the endgame.
But the 0.7 ratio making the rounds is fantasy math at today's prices.
$SPCX trades around $152.
$TSLA trades around $363. 0.7 shares gets a Tesla holder about $106 for a $363 stock. Value neutral today is closer to 2.4 shares.
Do the ownership math and it tells the real story. At 0.7, Tesla holders end up with about 17% of the combined company while contributing about 42% of its value. That gap is the whole negotiation.
The deal happens eventually, in my opinion. The December timeline is the part I'm skeptical of. Musk sits on both sides of the table and both shareholder bases get a vote.
Watch the percentage Tesla holders actually get, not the ratio headline. And whatever you do, never be a long-term short of anything Elon runs 🚀
BREAKING: A Tesla–SpaceX merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting in early December, per Barclays.
The most likely structure: SpaceX acquires Tesla in an all-stock deal, with Tesla shareholders getting about 0.7 SpaceX shares per Tesla share, plus a likely premium.
Barclays says Musk would own about 37% of the combined company, with roughly 56% of the voting power.