🧵 1/2
I recently collected a copy of the March 1977 issue of New Internationalist. The cover line: "Back from the brink? Bangladesh revisited." I read it twice and thought if I swapped a handful of words, it could have been filed from Dhaka earlier this year.
The correspondents who worked on this found a nervous capital. According to their findings, tanks had left the streets, but the radio station was still guarded round the clock, elections were postponed, and the jails were full of the previous government's enemies. They found a career soldier in the driving seat, Major General Ziaur Rahman, who they praised for honesty and for attacking red tape, with no time for fools and crooks. President Ziaur found a government too preoccupied with India to open up domestic politics. And he found a country that, far from being a basket case, had gas, fertile soil, jute and the quickest wits in the subcontinent, yet was more dependent on foreign aid than it had been at independence. More than half the budget came from foreign grants and credits. A hundred and twenty-six voluntary agencies were working throughout the country.
I paused at the two lines where they note that India decided to divert 40,000 cusecs of the Ganges at Farakka to flush silt out of Calcutta port, and Dhaka then became convinced Mrs Gandhi was using the river to destabilise the country. And on the diplomatic grapevine, Washington was said to be negotiating a base on St Martin's Island.
Put the magazine aside and look at October 2026. Ziaur Rahman’s son, Tarique Rahman, has been Prime Minister since February. Dhaka is once again a city where the government's foreign policy begins and ends with the question of how to handle New Delhi. His government is still waiting on India for an answer on Hasina's extradition before he will even consider a visit to Delhi.
The 1996 Ganges treaty expires on December 12 this year, and Tarique Rahman’s water minister says Bangladesh's top priority in the new version is to restore the guarantee clause from the 1977 agreement. Think about that — the son is negotiating to recover a protection the father secured in the very year this magazine was printed. Teesta is still unsigned. Delhi's "hydro-hegemonic" approach is the polite phrase experts use.
Reality is, instruments may have changed, but the intention remains the same. In 1977, the leverage was food aid: 650,000 tons of mostly American grain, sold through ration shops, propping up 18% of the budget and giving donors what the article called "enormous leverage." Today nobody needs to ship wheat. The lever swapped with the tariff schedule. Washington threatened a 37% duty on our exports, with garments, the industry that feeds the country’s economy, taking the hit, and the rate came down to around 19% only after Dhaka put something on the table. That something was Boeing.
Fourteen aircraft for $3.7 billion, signed in April, the biggest order in Biman's history, with a pledge of 25 and then, after Trump spoke to Tarique Rahman in August, a promise of billions more, announced by the American envoy on X. These days Washington no longer whispers about a base on St Martin's; instead, it sends an invoice.
Fifty years ago we were told what to eat; today we are told what to fly, and the seller's ambassador tells us in public, as a trophy. Whether an economy that struggles to pay its own import bill can afford those planes is a question our politicians can’t afford to ask loudly (considering whether their invite to American parties would stop coming).