THE BUSINESS CYCLE IS DRIVING BITCOIN -- NOT THE 4-YEAR CYCLE.
Raoul Pal said that
$BTC isn’t “lagging”… it’s literally tracking the ISM, the global business cycle. Rates stayed too high for too long, main street got crushed, and that extended the entire cycle.
In 2021-2022 the U.S. quietly pushed the average debt maturity from 4 to 5 years, that stretched this cycle too.
So what looks like “
#Bitcoin being slow” is actually the macro clock running one year longer than usual.
If this 5-year cycle is right, Raoul’s model still points to peak liquidity into 2026, with the ISM topping out after that.
Patience here isn’t weakness, it’s macro awareness.