Bitcoin is now being supported by a key level : the True Market Mean. This is a metric that calculates the cost basis of economically active bitcoin:native . In other words, all BTC considered "vaulted" (dormant) are excluded from weighting the overall realized price. This way, we obtain the true average cost basis of BTC that is considered to be genuinely circulating and therefore holds real economic value in the market. The TMM is estimated at around $77 000, and Bitcoin has just broken above this support level for the first time this year. (Note that this is on the weekly timeframe, which makes the trend more robust.) This is an important confirmation that helps confirm the market's shift toward a bullish trend.

Top buyer capitulation is still in play. This push toward $84 000 has prompted the worst-positioned investors to take the opportunity to exit the market while limiting their losses. These investors are made up of cohorts between 9 and 18 months old, whose purchase price could have been anywhere between $63 000 and $125 000. After setting realized loss records, including two events with over $300 million in realized losses from the 9m+ cohort, we're seeing a new episode of capitulation. The 9m+ cohort has just realized $246M in losses and $233M for the 1y+ cohort, for close to $500 million combined. These capitulation events have occurred in every bear market, but this time the exchange between weak hands and strong hands has never been this significant, and it's still ongoing today as Bitcoin sits at a major pivot point.

The circulating bitcoin:native supply is estimated at 20.09 million, meaning less than 1 million BTC remain to be mined. With its recent rise since July, the supply held in profit has once again become clearly dominant, at 14.37 million BTC versus just 5.717 million in loss. During every bear market or major correction, this ratio has tended to roughly balance out between loss and profit, as was the case not long ago. Now that profits are taking hold, market dynamics are turning more positive and investor behavior is starting to shift.

Do you think you hold enough Bitcoin ? This is a hard question to answer, everyone has their own goals and ambitions, but in reality, we'll probably never own enough Bitcoin. That said, to get a sense of scale and make a comparison, there are currently 56.96 million addresses holding Bitcoin in total. Across all these addresses, the average amount of BTC held comes out to 0.353 Bitcoin. That currently represents just under $30 000 today, compared to $297 exactly 10 years ago.

This is only the second time in Bitcoin's history that its Hashrate has dropped enough to fall below its annual hash average. The only other time this happened was in 2021, with the Chinese mining ban. Today, Hashrate is estimated at around 838 EH/s, while the annual average sits at 924 EH/s. This means mining activity has clearly slowed down recently, and this comes after Hashrate set a record of around 1.25 ZH/s, the Zettahash being the largest unit Bitcoin has reached so far. To understand why, you need to know that the blockchain is built to produce a block every 10 minutes. Depending on how long it takes to mine a block, difficulty adjusts, pushing machines to produce ever more computing power to solve the equation before everyone else. So it's this competition for rewards (3.125 BTC/block, which get cut in half at every halving) that mining pools are fighting over. When this activity becomes less attractive, miners scale back their operations to cut costs. With that in mind, this drop in Hashrate can be attributed to a combination of factors that led miners to reduce activity enough to bring the Hashrate down this much. ➤ To start, between the block rewards being cut in half in April 2024 and Bitcoin's price decline over the past year (-52%), some miners chose to scale back or diversify their operations. ➤ This is where AI comes into play, since it's experiencing a real boom that requires computing power on every front, something miners already have. Naturally, some decided to diversify their business into AI. ➤ Weather conditions have also put miners to the test, between the winter storm early in the year and the intense heat this summer, forcing miners to reduce or halt their activity for a period of time. ➤ The last point people don't necessarily think of comes from various conflicts that can affect commercial shipping, and therefore the pricesand availability of certain components needed for ASICs. All of this suggests that Bitcoin's Hashrate will eventually stabilize further in the long term, potentially with lower difficulty, which could lead to greater decentralization as the largest mining pools scale back their activity on Bitcoin, making room for more smaller-scale miners on the network. Bitcoin moves forward, transforms, and increasingly suggests that Satoshi's vision could indeed come to pass in the long run.

BTC is starting its second week in a regime completely different from the one it had been in for nearly a year. To assess this regime, we simply look at how bitcoin:native is behaving relative to certain key levels. Notably, BTC managed to break above the STH invested capital cost basis and the 1-year SMA. The overall average, sitting at $81 982, has also been broken through, the only thing offering some resistance is the LTH invested capital cost basis, estimated at $84 707. A sustained close above that level would crush the hopes of the last remaining bears.

This break above $86 000 just triggered the biggest transaction volume of the past 4 years. More than 1 million BTC were traded over the past week, worth more than $92B. This isn't just a simple bullish push, these past few days came to test and then break the last May high, and therefore the structure that's been in place for nearly a year. As a result, many investors have recently rushed to move Bitcoin, sending volumes soaring, even October's top didn't see this level of activity. Whether it's buying, selling, or simple transfers, there's a lot of activity on Bitcoin right now.

Bitcoin has already returned to the median zone after leaving the rarest price distribution zones, namely the percentiles between P0.5 and P2. Every bear market has been an opportunity to accumulate bitcoin:native at a statistically rare price. These periods don't last long relative to Bitcoin's historical trajectory, which is precisely what makes them ideal windows for long-term accumulation. Now we'll start watching for the opposite scenario: periods of overvaluation.

please welcome the official @_bitview_ account 👋 @Darkfost_Coc has been following the project for a while now. we’ve had many great conversations and friendly debates around datasets, charts and ideas, and he’s already shared quite a few bitview charts on his own account he very kindly reached out wanting to help give the project more visibility, and proposed taking care of a dedicated bitview account with charts, updates and insights very thankful he stepped in and excited to see where this goes !

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