$BTC This is my plan for the coming weeks. I’m currently not looking to short unless we see another push into the $90k region. Instead, I’m waiting for price to fill one of my long entries. The first one sits at $81.3K, where BTC would retest the recent breakout above the range highs. This is the more aggressive setup of the two, with a slightly tighter stop loss. If that trade fails and price continues lower, my second long entry sits around $75K. This is my main area of interest for another swing long, and where I believe the next higher low could form. My invalidation for this trade sits right below the 2021 ATH, near the highs of the bottoming range. Overall, I’m confident in both setups. If the first one doesn’t play out, I’m perfectly comfortable with taking a second attempt lower.

$BTC More downside is inevitable. Long liquidations currently outweigh short liquidations by roughly 2.5:1, leaving the much larger liquidity cluster sitting below price. At the same time, the trend on intermediate timeframes remains bearish. With both structure and liquidity still favoring the downside, I continue to expect another move lower before any larger continuation to the upside.

$BTC Retest done. Now let’s see if my scenario plays out. Price has just seen another spike to the upside, briefly moving above the highs of the LTF range and retesting the grey zone. After sweeping those highs, BTC immediately got rejected from my level and went on to close back inside the range. Because of that, this currently looks much more like a fakeout / liquidity grab to me than a sustainable breakout. If price now starts moving lower from here, I’ll be looking for a sweep of the low around $82.8K, followed by a possible continuation into my area of interest for longs between $81K and $82K.

$BTC BTC is currently compressing within this tight LTF range. Now we either see some more consolidation today, which would then likely carry on over the weekend, or price breaks out and we see another decisive move in one of the two directions. The longer BTC continues to consolidate, the more decisive the eventual breakout is likely to be. So if that’s the case, we could see another sharp move going into next week. A break above the highs would likely send us back toward the local high around $87K and increase the chances of further upside. A breakdown, on the other hand, would push price lower to revisit the previous HTF high or potentially even extend into the $80k–$82k region. A breakdown is the scenario I’m currently more interested in, as this would trigger my first long scenario. If BTC breaks higher instead, I’ll simply remain flat and wait for the next decent opportunity to present itself.

$BTC This is where things get interesting. After reclaiming this crucial resistance level and flipping it into support, BTC is now retesting it for the first time. So far, BTC has reacted directly from the upper boundary of that zone, which coincides with the previous HTF high. If price continues to find acceptance above this zone, followed by a weekly close above it, this would be a clear sign of strength and would make a continuation into the $90K region increasingly likely. However, I still believe that we’ll likely see a deeper retest into that zone before another expansion to the upside happens. Especially with structure still being bearish on intermediate timeframes. The level I’m observing for a potential bounce is the highs of the range we just recently broke out from, which sit right around $81.3K. Those also line up perfectly with the 0.5 Fib level of the recent rally, which adds even further confluence to this area. Anyways, this is the level I’m currently most interested in trading. Should this plan not play out the way I want it to and we break below the highs to re-enter the range instead, I’ll be looking for another long attempt lower around the $73K–$76K region.

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$BTC Price is currently bouncing from a key HTF support level. Meanwhile, open interest has continued to cool off significantly, showing that a large amount of excessive leverage is being flushed out of the market. Spot, on the other hand, continues to sell, which tells us that spot demand remains relatively weak for now. The short impulses to the upside we’ve seen today have been triggered by perps opening longs, while spot has failed to show the same strength. Given these circumstances, I would still consider the overall situation quite healthy. The leverage reset puts the market in a much cleaner position, and if genuine buying interest starts returning, upside continuation could quickly come back into play.

$BTC I still believe we’ll see further downside. Right now, two large clusters of long liquidations are sitting below price. Interestingly, both of them line up almost perfectly with the areas I’m already watching for continuation longs. The first sits around the lows of the recent breakout rally. A move into the $80K–$81K region would clear a significant amount of long liquidations while simultaneously retesting the highs of the previous range we broke out from. The second cluster sits lower around $74K–$75K, lining up perfectly with my HTF long area. If BTC sees a deeper pullback into that region, I’ll definitely use the opportunity to further increase both my spot and swing long exposure.

$BTC So far, so good. We pushed a little higher than I initially expected, but overall we got the reaction I was anticipating. If you took this short, you should already be sitting in decent profit and can now cut your risk by moving your stops to entry. My target remains a retest of the range highs, which I believe we could see soon. Whether I take the exact long shown in this post or wait for an entry lower instead depends largely on the incoming weekly close. If the weekly candle closes back inside the previous range, I’ll wait for an entry around the $73K–$76K region, which I’ve already highlighted in several of my previous posts. If we instead retest the range highs and continue holding above them, I’ll take that opportunity to long, targeting the recent high around $87K first and the major swing high around $97K after that.

$BTC Today’s selloff was driven by both continued spot selling and longs being closed. Open interest decreased significantly during this dump, suggesting that a lot of excessive leverage has been flushed out of the market. This leaves us with somewhat mixed signals. On one hand, it’s healthy to see some of the longs that were opened during the recent rally getting taken out. On the other hand, spot demand still remains pretty weak. However, this dynamic can change quickly. If spot buyers start stepping back in while open interest remains cooled off, momentum could shift back in favor of buyers very quickly.

$BTC A pullback into the $81K–$83K region looks increasingly likely. Today, BTC first broke its short-term uptrend, followed by a retest of the trendline and then a sharp breakdown below our key LTF support. Price is now consolidating around $84K. If bearish momentum doesn’t immediately continue toward $83K, I believe we could first see a retest of the $85K region. In that case, I’d consider opening a hedge short to protect my running swing long. My first target would be the former range highs we recently broke out from, followed by the lows of the current rally if downside momentum continues.

Looks like we‘ll retest $83k soon

$BTC A pullback feels inevitable at this point. While the majority of upside liquidity has been cleared during this rally, new long-liquidation clusters have started forming below price. Right now, three highly concentrated low-leverage clusters stand out. The first one sits around $83k, right at the previous HTF high BTC just broke above. A retest of that area would flush out a decent amount of breakout longs. The largest cluster sits lower around the $77k–$78k region. This is also the area many traders likely used to long after BTC reclaimed the old range, making it an obvious liquidity target on a deeper retrace. The final cluster sits just below the lows of the latest expansion to the upside. Interestingly, this is also the area many traders are currently waiting to buy again, which makes me question whether BTC will even give us a clean retest there or simply frontrun it instead.

$BTC This weekly close will be absolutely crucial. BTC is currently testing a major HTF resistance zone, with the yearly open sitting just above, adding further confluence to this area. If buyers can break through and we see a strong weekly close followed by acceptance above this zone, I’d expect continuation toward the major swing high around $97K. On the other hand, if BTC briefly trades through this level but fails to hold it and closes back below, I’d view that as a sign of weakness and favor a short-term correction. There are two areas I’m watching if that happens. The first is the recent range highs, where I’d look for a continuation long just as mentioned in my previous post. If that level fails to hold and BTC moves back inside the old range, my next area of interest sits around $73K–$76K, where I’d look to increase my swing long exposure.

$BTC Staying flat makes the most sense for me right now. Spot bags are printing. Swing long is printing. So why chase any trades here? However, there are two scenarios from here where I would want to enter another trade. The first would be a rejection from the HTF resistance zone we’re currently retesting, followed by a bearish market structure shift on lower timeframes. In that case, I’d look to enter a short targeting the $81.2K region, where price would retest the recent breakout from the range highs. The second, and currently much more interesting setup to me, would be a long from a successful retest of those highs. Price broke above the range with a lot of momentum, and yesterday’s daily close came in well above $81.2K. Considering that the move was also strongly supported by spot buying, this looks much more like a genuine breakout to me than a simple liquidity grab or fakeout. If price comes back into that area and starts showing strength again, I’ll look to enter another long targeting the major swing high around $97K. Until either of these setups presents itself, I see no reason to force a trade.

$BTC This is actually wild. With the recent rally, BTC has wiped out the majority of upside liquidity. Now, what remains is a massive cluster of long liquidations stretching from roughly $84K all the way down to $74K. This leaves us with an imbalance between long and short liquidation of roughly 6:1.

$BTC Reclaim this resistance zone and $97K is next. Price is currently retesting a key breakdown level from which we also got rejected back in May when BTC formed its last major HTF high. Right now, bullish momentum remains very strong, which could result in a break above this level. However, as confirmation, I would like to see a weekly close above $87K. While I do believe that we could see some more upside, I ultimately expect another rejection from this level. In case of a rejection, I am watching the $74K–$76K region for a possible bullish retest before the next larger expansion to the upside. This area not only represents strong support, but is also very interesting from a liquidity perspective, as a large cluster of long liquidations has built up right around it. I believe that this is where BTC could form a higher low. Therefore, this would be our best and potentially also final chance to ever buy Bitcoin below $75K again.

$BTC | Swing Long Update Looks like I sniped the exact bottom. So far everything is going according to plan, with price already up roughly 50% from my entry. More importantly, bearish structure has now officially been invalidated, which further supports my idea of the bottom already being in. That doesn’t mean I’m done adding, though. From here, I still plan to use every deeper pullback as an opportunity to further scale into the position. Other than that, the overall plan remains the same. See you at $160K.

$BTC Genuine breakout or fakeout ? Price has broken above the range highs with a lot of momentum and doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of weakness so far. I’m now watching how BTC behaves throughout the New York session to see whether price can sustain this move or if we get a larger retrace. If today’s daily candle closes above $82.2K, this would confirm the breakout. In that case, I’d look for longs once price retests the highs. Should we, on the other hand, close back inside the range, I’d consider this a fakeout and look for some kind of LTF confirmation to trade a possible continuation to the downside.

$BTC This is exactly what you want to see during a pump like this. Price has broken above the range highs with a lot of momentum. This move was supported by aggressive spot buying as well as shorts getting squeezed out of the market. At the same time, open interest has remained relatively flat, suggesting that we haven’t seen any significant build-up in leverage during this move. This therefore currently looks like a very healthy pump. If buyers continue showing this kind of strength, I believe the move could extend toward $87K.