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1/ Excited to partner with @SnapshotLabs to bring futarchy market signals directly into Snapshot.
Tokenholders and delegates in participating DAOs can now see expected market impact before voting.
Now live on Snapshot: Advisory Futarchy, built with @_futarchy and currently running on @Kleros_io's latest proposal.
Traditional Futarchy lets markets decide outcomes.
Advisory Futarchy lets markets advise while governance decides.
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Futarchy retweeted
I just took a position to sell my ETH if 8363 doesn't pass! (and to buy more if it does)
Seer's market essentially splits the ETH token into 2; one where 8363 passes and one where it doesnt
ETH holders bearish on 8363 place orders like "if it doesnt pass, buy more eth" or "if it does pass, sell my eth".
the trade reverts on whichever outcome didn't happen and executes for the one that does
for eg, if 8363 is included in hegota
> the bears position "if passed sell eth" executes and they get usds
> their corresponding position "if not passed, buy eth" reverts and they get usds back
Given sufficient volume these markets can provide useful information on price impact for passing EIPs
however, the main drawback to getting volume is it locks traders into the price of eth at the time of the trade
so in this case, if eth is included in hegota, the bears will receive the dollar value of ETH as of today, not the price in october which may be higher or lower
which in my view makes it more of a platform to hedge your position than actually predict price impact
@MetaDAOProject has a similar issue, which they mitigate by only keeping trades open for 3 days compared to this market that's open for 3 months. but the deviance b/w spot prices on the open market & the one in the futarchy split universe persists there too
for those interested i have some thoughts for a price futarchy design that could neatly solve this problem 🔜
Voting by validators on issuance is biased, so here's a better mechanism:
if you're bearish on 8363, auto buy ETH if it does not pass or sell ETH if it does
& if bullish, auto sell eth if it passes or buy if it does
price will show the gwei
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Futarchy retweeted
Imagine I post $X in support of my blog, & if anyone disagrees w/ any claim I make there & posts $Y, & if I don't concede, judge rules who gets $(X+Y-J) where $J is judging fee. What should I call my post?
18%
Truth Bond
27%
Veracity Bond
23%
Accuracy Bond
32%
Claim Bond
22 votes • Final results
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Technical problems prevented some traders from making positions for ~6 hours.
But the market battle over GIP-150 continues.
The "NO" side has now flipped to winning, and those in favor of the proposal can now buy GNO tokens conditional on proposal passing at a ~1% discount.
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Outside activists want to dismantle GnosisDAO (@gnosis_) treasury. The team is fighting them off.
GIP-150 — a one-time pro-rata redemption: GNO for ETH, stables, and a claim on illiquid assets. Redeemed GNO is burned.
Vote closes May 12.
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Futarchy retweeted
@gnosis_ is voting to put @_futarchy's prediction markets on every official governance proposal in a 9-month pilot - joining @Kleros_io and @VeloraDEX.
GIP-145 proposes advisory markets on Snapshot showing expected $GNO price impact before voters decide. Proposed by @azsantosk, backed by co-founder @koeppelmann - "now it seems FINALLY the time is right."
@_futarchy has a live market on this proposal to demonstrate the concept - pricing a +2.45% $GNO impact if the pilot passes.
Already proven at @Kleros_io:
1. Voters cited market signals in their rationale to reject a proposal.
2. The DAO now requires $PNK minting proposals to show a positive futarchy signal to pass.
3. The Kleros Cooperative will "delegate a substantial amount of voting power that will vote strictly according to the Futarchy signal."
Each market prices $GNO conditional on the proposal passing or failing - the percentage difference between YES and NO is the expected impact. Accuracy is measured by comparing 5-day TWAPs of each conditional token and GNO spot against the 24-hour TWAP of $GNO post-outcome.
Proposal: snapshot.box/#/s:gnosis.eth/…
Live market: app.futarchy.fi/market?propo…
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Futarchy retweeted
Prediction market FUD according to brain size.
Futarchy offers great promise, but also the worrisome scenario of a very competent, and thus durable, world govt tied to mal-valued goals. overcomingbias.com/p/world-g…
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1/🧠 Futarchy market live for AAVE
A futarchy market is now live to evaluate the expected impact on AAVE price if the some version of @eboadom's Alignment Proposal is approved until the end of February.
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1/ PIP-75, a governance proposal for @VeloraDEX, is now live with advisory futarchy markets.
The proposal is to decide whether to accept a refund from a user, related to a March 2024 vulnerability.
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