thoughts on the market and how I'll be trading
Thesis: bounce at $80-83k into $93-95k+. Then we get the first deeper correction of the bullrun.
>btc ranged between $76-80k for a month
>range refused to break down on back-to-back bad news
> It's been less than a week since we concluded that range, nothing happened to suggest we need to revisit that range now
> However, very high open interest and late longs need to be punished. A simple flush into retest of the top of the range ($80-81k) would do the trick
> Most people will be scared to buy looking at the 10y bonds and inflation numbers, which will help boost momentum later into the 90s (or higher)
> That move will 100% confirm the bull run
> At that point, a deeper correction from higher would make perfect sense, wouldn't break bull structure, and would be max pain for the late longs (95 -> 70)
> This plan lines up nicely with midterms, and the Fed doing things to fix the economy
> TradFi gets into a bear market(1-2months) and crypto follows
> After that, the sky is clear for the bull run main event
Bottom line:
This is a bull run.
I think we go higher before we go lower.
But even if not, we still go higher eventually.
Do not, under any circumstances, get killed right before the bull run.