I like big draws

$ATH.TO $CVE Morning early sell side briefs on Athabasca Oil and Cenovus Energy #oott

🇨🇦🛢️🇨🇦 JPMorgan upgraded Cenovus Energy $CVE.TO to Overweight and raised its price target to C$58.00

BREAKING: Kpler's verified data directly contradicts Axios' report that 40 tankers carrying 16 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night — with Kpler recording zero west-to-east tanker crossings and zero barrels exiting the Strait that day. Axios' Barak Ravid reported, citing three U.S. officials, that 40 tankers transited the southern deep channel on Friday night, moving 16 million barrels of oil out of the Gulf. But Kpler's vessel-tracking data shows no commercial vessel movements in either direction through the Strait on Friday, with traffic remaining near a standstill for much of the week. The gap between Washington's claims and independently observable traffic is enormous. U.S. officials say 16 million barrels moved. Kpler says zero. The administration is claiming victory — but the data says otherwise.

US imports of Venezuelan oil are at their highest in 9 years.

IEA DOUBLES ITS ESTIMATE FOR OIL SHORTFALL IN THIRD QUARTER

🛢️💰Cenovus Energy just reported its best-ever quarterly financial results. Revenue: CAD 17.4 billion. Net income: CAD 2.87 billion. Oil sands production: record! And they're on pace to cross 1 million boe/d in July. 🔹Q2 2026 numbers: Adjusted funds flow: CAD 5.0 billion. Free funds flow: CAD 3.8 billion. Shareholder returns: CAD 1.4 billion (CAD 1.0B buybacks + CAD 400M dividends). Net income up from CAD 851 million a year ago to CAD 2.87 billion. 🔹The production machine: Record oil sands: 786,400 boe/d anchored by Christina Lake and Sunrise. Total upstream: 970,400 boe/d more than 200,000 boe/d higher than a year ago. Monthly 1 million boe/d milestone: on pace for July. Full year guidance raised by 25,000 boe/d to 970,000–1,010,000 boe/d. Oil sands operating costs cut 6% to CAD 10.75–11.75 per boe. 🔹The cost structure tells the real story: CAD 10.75–11.75 per boe in oil sands operating costs. At $100+ Brent, that is one of the widest margin structures in global upstream. Canadian oil sands are not conventionally "cheap" to develop but once producing, they are long-life, predictable, and at these prices, extraordinarily profitable. 🔹The downstream held up too: 95% crude unit utilization. 451,500 bbls/d throughput. US refining at 67% adjusted market capture.

THE BULL CASE FOR OIL — RESTATED Oil traders seem to think just bc Trump chickened out on the weekend (due to the Iranian counter-personnel threat) means that a deal that reopens Hormuz has become more likely. Therefore, sell oil. This is incorrect. The Iranian theory of victory is to squeeze Trump until he agrees to cede Hormuz. They have refused to negotiate. And will keep refusing to negotiate until he finally says “FUCK IT! YOU CAN KEEP HORMUZ!” We are very far from that point, largely bc accepting exclusive Iranian authority over Hormuz is tantamount to recognizing Iran as the regional hegemon of the Gulf and the arbiter of global access to Gulf energy. The noose around his neck will have to tighten considerably before he capitulates. It’s a bitter pill to swallow. And even after he has swallowed it, it is not entirely clear that the Iranians can be persuaded away from their no-deal fallback: most of them do not believe that even written US promises of future concessions are credible at all. Instead they think you have to make an example of him to deter him and future presidents. A quick return to an MOU state is therefore highly unlikely. This is a high confidence assessment. Buy the dip.