The Fed sets rates at 2pm ET.
Now: 3.50–3.75%.
Most likely they lift it to 3.75–4.00%. That is already expected, so the first move can be small.
If they leave it at 3.50–3.75%, risk assets usually bounce.
If they jump to 4.00–4.25%, that would sting.
Warsh talks after.
If he sounds finished, crypto can recover.
If he sounds like more is coming, it stays heavy.