Un mauvais trade coûte de l’argent ; vouloir lui donner raison coûte le compte.

RT @InvestingCanons: “We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” — Warren Buffett https://t…

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RT @TMLTrader: $FROG regained the 50-day/10-week line last week after slicing below the intermediate term moving average two weeks ago. It…

One of the most important concepts every trader and investor should understand is Accumulation vs. Distribution. Price tells us the direction. Volume helps us understand the conviction behind the move. Here's how I look at it: 1/ ACCUMULATION - Institutional Buying What I look for: - Up days on above-average volume - Pullbacks on declining volume - Strong closes near daily or weekly highs - Tight price action with decreasing volatility - Key support levels consistently holding - Improving relative strength Why does it matter? Large institutions often take weeks or months to build positions, leaving potential footprints through price and volume. This behavior is commonly seen during late Stage 1 bases and healthy Stage 2 uptrends. 2/ DISTRIBUTION - Institutional Selling What I look for: - Down days on above-average volume - Weak rallies on declining volume - Repeated closes near daily or weekly lows - Wide, loose price swings - Heavy volume without upward progress (churning) - Breakdowns below key support levels Why does it matter? Repeated selling pressure can indicate institutions reducing exposure, often appearing during Stage 3 topping formations before potential Stage 4 declines. 3/ THE SIMPLEST WAY TO REMEMBER IT - Accumulation → Up on strong volume, down on lighter volume. - Distribution → Down on strong volume, up on lighter volume. These are clues, not guarantees. Look for repeated patterns rather than isolated sessions. 4/ WHAT ABOUT THE BROADER MARKET? William O'Neil's CANSLIM framework emphasizes tracking distribution days in major indexes. A distribution day generally occurs when an index declines on higher volume than the previous session. Roughly 4-5 distribution days within several weeks can be an early warning of increasing institutional selling pressure. Not an automatic sell signal, but a reason to become more defensive. 5/ HOW I APPLY THIS TO MY TRADING & INVESTING - Accumulation → Look for constructive entries, build positions selectively, and let strong trends develop. - Distribution → Tighten risk management, avoid aggressive additions, and reassess technically weak positions. One thing I've learned over the years: Never analyze price without looking at volume! Combine price and volume with Stage Analysis, relative strength, and fundamentals, and you'll have a much stronger framework for navigating the markets. Note: Don't automatically treat heavy volume without significant price movement as distribution, especially on OpEx or major void days, when unusually high volume may not reflect meaningful institutional selling. Bookmark this for your next chart review!

$GEV just pulled the plug on its 50-week EMA 🔌

$NBIS Starting to look very interesting here off this brutal 13 day -40% selloff.

$XP ready for next leg higher? This Brazilian Fintech play had one of the best episodic pivots as of late +50% weekly candle two weeks ago on highest weekly volume ever. Right wing candidate Bolsonaro 83% odds to win tomorrow's presidential runoff. Up from 77% yesterday. Brazilian ETF $EWZ +5% today on Hyperliquid.

“Knowledge isn't free. You have to pay attention.” — Richard Feynman

💫Spare some time from your busy schedule and read this. ✅This is for people who lack patience and want to trade 2-3 star setups out of impatience, simply because they feel the need to stay active in the market all the time. Image source: Unknown

Latin American ETF $ILF looks ready for next leg up... Brazilian election results likely the catalyst for next big move.

Pain at the pump. Gains on the charts. Big Oil is having a field day🛢️ $XOM $CVX $SHEL $COP

Want to know how to avoid major drawdowns and improve your returns in the stock market? Understanding Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis is a great place to start. Every stock moves through 4 stages! One of the most important lessons I've learned from Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis is understanding where a stock stands in its market cycle and when to buy, hold, reduce exposure, or stay away. The framework primarily uses the 30-week moving average (roughly equivalent to the 150-day SMA), price action, volume, and relative strength. Stage 1: Basing / Accumulation What does it look like? - Usually forms after a prolonged Stage 4 downtrend - Stock stops making consistent lower lows and starts trading sideways - 30-week moving average begins to flatten - Price moves above and below the flattening moving average - Selling pressure decreases, and volume often dries up What does it mean? - The stock is trying to establish a bottom, but buyers haven't taken full control yet. This is where I start building my watchlist and looking for improving technicals, higher lows, and signs of accumulation. - Remember, a stock falling 50-70% doesn't automatically make it a Stage 1 base. It needs time to stabilize and build a proper structure. Stage 2: Advancing/Uptrend What does it look like? - Stock breaks out above its Stage 1 base - Breakout ideally happens on expanding volume - 30-week moving average starts sloping upward - Higher highs and higher lows - Relative strength improves against the broader market What does it mean? - Buyers are taking control, and institutional accumulation may be supporting the uptrend. - This is my favorite stage to own growth stocks! I generally look for Stage 1 → Stage 2 breakouts and constructive pullbacks to rising moving averages. - The goal isn't to buy at the absolute bottom but to participate when the stock starts showing evidence of a sustainable uptrend. Stage 3 vs. Stage 4 - This is where a lot of us make mistakes! Stage 3: Topping / Distribution What does it look like? - Usually forms after a prolonged Stage 2 advance - Momentum slows, and price starts moving sideways - 30-week moving average begins flattening - Price repeatedly crosses above and below the moving average - Breakouts start failing, and selling volume may increase - Major support levels are still holding What does it mean? - The previous uptrend is losing momentum, and the stock may be going through distribution. - Stage 3 doesn't automatically mean a crash is coming. Some stocks consolidate and resume their uptrends. - For me, this is where I become cautious, tighten risk management, consider trimming positions, and avoid aggressively adding exposure. Stage 4: Declining / Downtrend What does it look like? - Stock breaks below major support or its Stage 3 range - 30-week moving average starts sloping downward - Price trades below the declining moving average - Lower highs and lower lows - Short-term rallies often fail near declining moving averages What does it mean? - Sellers are in control, and the stock is in a downtrend. - One of the biggest lessons I've learned is that technicals often reveal weakness before fundamentals do. - A company can continue reporting strong earnings while its stock is entering Stage 4 because the market is already pricing in future expectations. The biggest difference between Stage 3 and Stage 4: Stage 3 = Sideways price action, flattening moving averages, potential distribution. Stage 4 = Support breakdown, declining moving averages, established downtrend. Another important thing to understand is that Stage 1 and Stage 3 can look very similar! Both involve sideways price action and flattening moving averages. The difference is what happened before: - Sideways consolidation after a prolonged decline could be Stage 1. - Sideways consolidation after a major advance could be Stage 3. My approach is simple: Stage 1 - Build your watchlist and prepare. Stage 2 - Look for opportunities to participate. Stage 3 - Protect your gains and manage risk. Stage 4 - Protect your capital and avoid weak downtrends. Stage Analysis isn't perfect, but it's one of the most valuable frameworks I've learned in my investing and trading journey. I use technicals to understand WHEN to participate and fundamentals to understand WHAT I'm buying. Understanding these four stages can make a tremendous difference in how you navigate market cycles!

Look for $OIH to join the energy rally soon...

Now it gets interesting. $SNDK

Watching Doc Copper closely here! Not a good place for ole Doc to catch a cold! $SPX $TLT $SMH

Absolutely brutal... $SNDK $MU $BE $TSM $NBIS $CRWV

Professional traders cut losses quicker than new traders. When proven wrong, they get out.

#Moderna fuite de données concernant le vaccin contre le mélanome

“The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge.” — Aristotle