Gas prices are being artificially inflated
RECENT GAS INCREASES ARE BEING DONE TO HURT TRUMP
I did an analysis of crude oil prices compared with a similar period under Biden. The numbers on gas do not add up. I think prices are being artificially driven up to hurt Trump, and here is why.
National regular is $4.44 a gallon today. The last time we saw that same $4.44 gallon was May 2022. Oil then: $110 a barrel. Oil now: $101. Same gallon. $9 less crude.
Look at the chart. Navy bars and the red line are the 2022 road to $4.44. Green bars and the yellow line are the 2026 road to $4.44. I wanted to build a story of two simi comparable periods. One with the Ukraine war (Russian oil) and upcoming midterms and the other with Iran war (gulf oil) and upcoming midterms. Bars are the pump. Lines are WTI. Both stories end on the same dashed $4.44 line. They do not take the same road.
2022, six months in: oil $79 to $110, +39%. Gas $3.40 to $4.44, +31%. Oil ran first. The pump followed. That is normal. Historically you'd expect to see that.
2026, six months in: oil $91 to $101, only +11%. Gas $3.64 to $4.44, +22%. The pump outran the barrel by a wide margin. This is unusual in you look at trendlines over the past 20 or so years.
Typical month in those windows: 2022, gas +3.2%, oil +9.3%. 2026, gas +6.3%, oil +3.5%.
Whole window: 2022 oil jumped almost 40%. Gas jumped about 31%. 2026 oil jumped 11%. Gas still jumped 22%.
The ratio that matters: May 2022, $100 of oil lined up with about $4.04 of gas. Today, $100 of oil lines up with about $4.40 of gas. You are paying more per gallon for each dollar of crude than you did the last time the pump said $4.44.
A gallon is not just oil. Refining, tax, freight, and the station sit on top of all of that. If you're in a blue state even more, fine. However, That does not explain these percentages. If the extra costs in the gallon were the whole story, gas and oil would still move in the same direction at something close to the same speed. In 2022 they did. In 2026 they did not. Gas is climbing about twice as fast as oil over this window.
That gap is the tell. The barrel got cheaper. The gallon did not give it back. Somebody between the well and the pump is holding the price up and they're doing it to harm Trump.
Inflation is not the excuse either. 2022 inflation was 8%. Right now it is about 3.4%. Same $4.44 sticker on a calmer dollar, sitting on cheaper oil. That should have been a lower gallon. It is not.
This looks like artificial pricing. Not “oil is expensive.” Oil is $9 cheaper than the last $4.44 month. The gallon is being held. The national average should be somewhere around $4.05 based on historical trends.
Watch the midterms. If this price falls off a cliff after Election Day while oil stays in the same neighborhood, the fix was in. High pump prices before a vote are a weapon. They are meant to make people blame Trump and vote their gas tank. If the gallon suddenly “finds” supply in November, whoever ran that squeeze needs to be named and brought to justice.
Save the chart. Screenshot your station. Track WTI against the gallon until November, then keep tracking after.
$101 oil and $4.44 gas are not on par with 2022. The percentages say the gallon is being pushed.