🦔Oracle's 5-year credit default swap spread just hit a record 230 basis points, more than four times the broader investment-grade index at 55 bps. The spread has quadrupled in the past year and now exceeds financial crisis levels from 2008. For comparison, Turkey's sovereign CDS sits at 245 bps. Oracle is one notch above junk and the credit market is pricing it as a bigger risk than it was during the worst financial crisis in modern history. My Take Oracle's CDS is priced worse than 2008 and Ellison is still signing hundred-billion-dollar AI deals. I think he's operating on the assumption that Oracle is too big and too embedded in government IT systems to be allowed to fail. That may end up being true, but it's a bet that someone else covers the downside rather than a financial strategy. S&P cut Oracle to BBB- in July and said they "underestimated the scale of the investments required." One more notch and Oracle is junk-rated. Every institutional fund with an investment-grade mandate would have to sell, and that's a forced liquidation Oracle isn't prepared for. Half the backlog is OpenAI, which by its own pre-IPO numbers burns $278 billion more than it takes in through 2030. I don't think Ellison has a plan for what happens if S&P downgrades him and OpenAI can't pay on schedule at the same time. And I think both of those are more likely than the stock price assumes. Hedgie🤗

🚨 A groundbreaking MIT brain-scan study shows relying on ChatGPT weakens critical thinking and memory wiring. A recent MIT study, titled ”The Cognitive Cost of Using LLMs,” monitored the brain activity of 54 students using electroencephalography (EEG) devices. Researchers from the MIT Media Lab discovered that participants who consistently relied on ChatGPT for essay-writing tasks demonstrated significantly lower neural engagement in brain regions tied to memory and analytical reasoning. Rather than actively synthesizing information, these users increasingly defaulted to a state of 'mental passivity,' struggling to recall their own work shortly after completion and producing increasingly generic, uninspired content. However, the research also highlights a path forward: AI does not have to be a cognitive detriment. Students who initially worked unaided and later transitioned to using ChatGPT showed an increase in brain activity, suggesting that AI is highly beneficial when used to enhance and scaffold human thought rather than replace it entirely. To avoid a future of algorithmic echo chambers and cognitive decline, experts urge users to remain active, critical participants when collaborating with digital tools. source: Chow, A. (2025). ChatGPT's Impact On Our Brains According to an MIT Study. TIME.

Financing the Global Industrial Renaissance with Apollo CEO Marc Rowan Marc Rowan is CEO of Apollo Global Management, one of the most important financial institutions and the largest provider of retirement income in the world. In this conversation, he joins a16z's David Haber to discuss the story of Apollo, the state of public and private markets, how the AI revolution will be financed, and more. 00:00 Intro 00:52 Drexel, Milken & the origins of "clean sheet thinking" 04:55 The Apollo origin story: From unemployed to $6 billion 08:46 How Apollo became a trillion-dollar firm 13:00 Permanent capital, origination & why assets are the scarce resource 16:08 Democratizing private markets: Daily pricing & new capital channels 22:04 Where venture meets credit: Financing the industrial renaissance 30:01 AI, enterprise software & which jobs will be replaced or enhanced 38:52 Moral leadership: UPenn, merit & doing right over easy 46:02 Apollo's culture: Playing to win & building to outlast the founder

$583B comp if @elonmusk colonizes Mars. A $28T TAM. Easter eggs pointing to a Tesla merger. @AmanVerjee read the 308-page @SpaceX S-1, so you don't have to. It's a big week. Full breakdown: [ tech news and vc ] 00:43 - AI holy trinity DGAF ⃤ 08:04 - @AnthropicAI profitable, $900B looks cheap 🤯 13:38 - @OpenAI rushes to IPO after courtroom win 🏃‍♂️‍➡️ 17:53 - @nvidia $82B print $80B buyback 💰🫲 22:20 - @mercury $200M Series D @ $5.2B 🏦 25:35 - US Govt = Quantum VC ⚛️ 29:05 - NPM sues Hiive over 2ndry plumbing 🪠 [ val corner: 308 page SpaceX S-1 ] 31:06 - SpaceX S-1 highlights 📸🔦 35:56 - $28T TAM includes Martians 🌎🌍🌏🌖✨ 37:00 - 3 core biz units: Connectivity, Space, AI 3️⃣ 47:05 - SpaceX-@Tesla merger? 🤔 50:10 - board members revealed @IraEhrenpreis @kimbal @AntonioGracias @Gwynne_Shotwell @LukeNosek @rglein @SteveJuvertson0 53:48 - unusual staggered lock-up period 🔐 1:01:00 - @davemcclure sings a whole new Mars to close the show 🎶

Do you dare??? Pitch this "Mean VC" 😈 You'll get rigorous critique that sharpens your strategy, challenges your assumptions, and helps prepare you for IRL investors. Link: chat.openai.com/g/g-TtYJjBhs…

🧵1/ For decades, venture has expanded practically by default: more funds, more managers, more capital. After 20+ years, we are now facing the first meaningful industry-wide contraction since the dot-com collapse, with the smallest active investor base in more than 25 years.

moolah in the coolah: the science of selling & how to turn tvpi into dpi via secondary sales. this is just the teaser. full [trading places] ep1 drops tuesday morning. @davemcclure @AmanVerjee @cupazhou

“winners keep winning. losers keep losing. tweeners keep tweening.” brutal vc wisdom from @davemcclure on portfolio triage. be helpful… but be the voice of reality. full episode soon on [trading places].

the 5 chapters of secondary selling 🧵 never sell i didn’t sell… and regret it sell 10–20% teach your founders set up your own SPV & sell to yourself @Jason & @davemcclure break it down on @twistartups full episode coming soon on [trading places]

“vc marks are bullshit.” – @davemcclure @Jason says 70% of unicorns aren’t actually unicorns. @davemcclure says every VC knows most fund marks are inflated — they just pretend it's only OTHER VC funds which are way off, but THEIRS are "just fine” [trading places] @twistartups

13 things LPs should know about venture capital. 1/ VC is highly cyclical, alternating between long risk-on periods followed by sudden risk-off periods. Trying to time things is a fools errand, which is why consistency across vintages is required. 2)75-90% of VC funds (depending on the cycle) will underperform top quartile lower middle-market PE funds, especially when accounting for illiquidity/risk. 3)Most LPs would achieve better returns investing in established large/mid-cap tier-1 brands rather than trying to pick individual micro funds. The latter requires expertise and TIME 4) Small seed funds consistently make up the majority of the top 10% and bottom 10% of funds in every vintage year. 5)While DPI (Distributions to Paid-In) ultimately matters most, avoid drawing conclusions from funds <6 years old. Our data shows that some top-performing funds actually took longer to achieve their first meaningful DPI. The Carta and AngelList data is valuable, but being surprised by lack of DPI for 2020+ vintage years shows little understanding of the asset class. Also 2017/2018 DPI is indeed poor, but this reflects the challenging exit markets of 2022-2023. Focus on company quality and wait to judge. 6) Recent posts suggesting that $100M-$500M funds are in "no man's land" are both incorrect and correct at the same time. This applies to firms lacking advantages in brand, domain expertise, or network. There's significant value for founders raising Series A from high-quality mid-cap managers who can provide quality senior partner support. 7) While track records and historical performance provide useful context, in VC, backward-looking analysis almost always leads to suboptimal deployment decisions. 8) A recent LI post citing PitchBook benchmarks claimed 11% of sub-$100M funds achieve 5x returns. This is significantly overstated due to survivorship bias and using small samples as a denominator. The figure is closer to ~1-2%. Funds achieving 5x+ DPI are truly rare. 9) VC faces a significant liquidity challenge and needs to mature in developing better liquidity paths. Extended liquidity timelines are increasingly incompatible with viable risk-returns, especially for those who cannot access top managers. 10) Thea ability gap between top and mediocre/poor VCs is enormous and becomes readily apparent to LPs with sufficient experience. However, since VC often represents only 5-10% of an LP's portfolio, many lack the sample size or network access for proper comparison. 11) Track record assessment requires careful analysis of holding values. Managers' holding valuations can inversely correlate with the firm's fundraising risk. I've seen firms that don't worry much about being able to raise typically maintain more conservative valuation policies. LPs must scrutinize the marks of top portfolio companies driving past unrealized performance. 12) For seed funds having a real edge in sourcing & winning deals can> picking ability. Brand/distribution matter. 13/ Every decade, there is a new guard of firms that come in and become dominant long term forces. 2000's, 2010's saw it, and we are already seeing early signs of breakout new firms in the 2020's. There are far more things.

Best part of this episode was @DavidSacks maintaining intellectual integrity and highlighting that “woke-ism” and “mob mentality” have existed on both the right and the left of the political spectrum for a long time … podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…

VC EMs that are not spin-outs: Family Offices are your most likely investors. Remember these 4 things: 1) For most FO's, VC is a participation sport and often as important as the returns are. The service/experience can be everything. You can differentiate through better reporting, community efforts, transparency, and touch. 2) Get to really know them before you start pitching what you do. Ask questions about their background, and understand what they care about before going into the pitch. Still see too many EMs go right into pitch mode. You can't offer a product unless you know who you are speaking to and what they care about. 3) The strategy is different when speaking to the principal vs. investment team member. For the former, you need to make sure to find common ground, and connect with the heart. For investment folks, you need to make sure you understand their incentives. 4) Don't burn bridges. Sometimes FOs go through changes on the fly. I've seen some GPs get upset when people pass. Don't. Sometimes it's truly a "not now".

reflecting: it’s so much easier to discuss non-traditional (aka “crazy”) VC investment strategies with 15 yrs of data / 2,000+ co’s in the rear view mirror. back in 2008-10, i spoke with hundreds of (smart & experienced) VCs & LPs who said i was insane… and when I said the firm name was going to be called “500 Startups” (thx for that domain @hnshah 🙏🏼❤️) they literally laughed in my fucking face. fundraising was hell for many years because nobody thought it made any goddamn sense (and tbh, i was scared shitless it might not work). even after we were on our 3rd fund and >1,000 investments, ppl still thought we were crazy and it wouldn’t work. but i was very lucky a few folks gave us a shot in the early days (@foundersfund @Redpoint @accel @bluerunventures @JoshKopelman @pmarca @mkapor @fredwilson @marcusogawa among many others)… the checks were small but they were enough to get started, and we never looked back. today i have a lot of sympathy for rookie VCs and founders aspiring to try out their “crazy investing ideas” — especially in such a tough market, altho 2009-10 was pretty similar in a lot of ways. it’s a GIANT pain in the ass starting a company or a VC fund, and it takes a lot of support and believers, AND a lot of hard work & persistence. and even then, many many times we will fail. and try again. and fail again. and try again. and fail again. but i want to let people know — keep working on your crazy ideas! because one time, a few times, sometimes… you will SUCCEED. and that makes all that failure and doubt and persistence worthwhile. piped.video/mtftHaK9tYY

With insitutional LPs pulling back, global family offices have been a focus for fund managers raising capital. There are few things to keep in mind with these groups (from my experience working with 250+ families): A short🧵

The common trait that I’ve found in most of my successful investments are people that have perpetual chips on their shoulders from always being underestimated.

Great product for emerging managers! @nadsdugal @use_tome

“…2021 was the unlimited open bar, 22' the hangover, and 23'+ … a great time to build/invest…”

Here it is! 🔥 After 100’s of hours of research and writing, excited to release the 2021 ***MAD*** landscape (Machine learning, Artificial Intelligence and Data) - with my colleague @john_d_wu A crazy, intense, and fun year in the ecosystem 👇👇👇 mattturck.com/data2021/

Never thought I would see @AlfredChuang from @RaceCapital switch to shorts!…seen here in conversation with @SBF_FTX