Why Most Perp DEXs Are Going to Die
One of the problems perp DEXs are facing has nothing to do with the fact that crypto is in a bear market right now. I'd actually argue against that take, because I think the market is still bullish considering the amount of volatility we’re seeing around specific narratives like Robinhood.
The key problem, imo, is that perp DEXs are still operating under the old market paradigm: people will come to their platform, burn money on fees to farm points, and do it all for the chance to get an airdrop.
That entire airdrop meta died in 2024. What replaced it was gambling and the desire to try your luck and make money right now.
We live in the TikTok generation. People increasingly want dopamine right now, not a year, two years, or three years from now, or however long a perp DEX's points program is going to run before you finally get rewarded with an airdrop.
That's exactly why Pumpfun became so popular in 2024. It gave people the ability to take a shot and potentially make money right here, right now.
And this meta has only gotten stronger since then.
Does anyone use Based, Fomo, Robinhood, GMGN, Axiom because of an airdrop? Nobody gives a shit about the airdrop. These platforms give people an opportunity to make money right now, and people are willing to leave money there in fees just for the chance to catch a coin that does a few x's, instead of waiting a year or two for some perp DEX airdrop - assuming the project doesn't shut down before the airdrop, get hacked, or you don't end up realizing the airdrop was worth less than what you spent farming it.
Perp DEX devs shouldn't be obsessing over their points programs and speculating about future airdrops, because only a handful of people actually care about that stuff now. You're not going very far with that small of a user base.
Your job should be to give people the ability to gamble right now on the assets that everyone is talking about right now.
When solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump started pumping, how many perp DEXes actually listed it? Just Aster? What about cash-cat:native?
Nobody cares right now whether you list
$MON,
$ARB, or some other familiar altcoin.
I think perp DEXs should at the very least follow the MEXC playbook: whenever they find a new volatile asset, they immediately announce a listing.
Your platform needs to be on CT's radar because people are talking about using your platform, not because everyone is waiting for some future airdrop, with the same few people spending every day predicting the price of your points.
Most altcoins right now are complete garbage that just bleed lower without any real volatility.
All the volatility is concentrated around:
RWA - especially the AI sector
Memecoins - especially the ones on Robinhood
Crime tokens from Binance and Bitget, like
$TUT,
$BEAT,
$VELVET
Everything else is basically dead.
And I really hope perp DEX devs listen to what I'm saying, because based on the current trends, the airdrop meta is dead.
Perp DEXs are trying to bring that meta back to life through points programs, but over the long run, I don't think that's going to save most of them.
Just look at how many users are actually farming points on perp DEXs right now. 2k-5k on average?
Who are you planning to dump your tokens on at TGE?
This entire game is basically between the devs and the airdrop farmers. There isn't even a third party anymore who's actually there to buy your tokens when you dump on them.