After Jacob Coxon's resignation and extinction warnings, a lot of people are asking 'how could AI possibly kill everyone?' and claiming AI safety researchers have no realistic answer.
This is false! Here are the 5 best scenarios I know of:
AI 2027:
ai-2027.com (I strongly recommend this one for being realistic, engaging, and if you dig into the appendices, highly detailed)
Paul Christiano's scenario (Former Head of Safety @ AISI, 2019):
lesswrong.com/posts/HBxe6wdj…
Gwern Branwen's scenario (widely known independent AI researcher, 2022):
lesswrong.com/posts/a5e9arCn…
Holden Karnofsky's high-level explanation (RSP Lead @ Anthropic, 2022):
cold-takes.com/ai-could-defe…
Joshua Clymer's scenario (ex-OpenAI, 2025):
lesswrong.com/posts/KFJ2LFog…
(There's also the Sable story from
ifanyonebuilds.it, though you'll have to buy the book to read that one.)
Writing concrete, specific risk scenarios with enormous amounts of detail has been a major research project of many of the most prominent voices in the field! (With the current leaders in effort being
ai-2040.com and
ai-2027.com)