Love @amitisinvesting and really enjoyed doing this interview with him. @PalantirTech + @ZetaGlobal Is 1+1=4 LG 🚀🚀🚀

$PLTR $ZETA Sat down with David Steinberg, CEO of Zeta Global, at Palantir's 11th AIPCon to discuss the company's new partnership with Palantir, how their missions around outcome based incentives aligned, and where the future is headed for Zeta's overall growth. Thank you to @dsteinberg10000 for taking the time!

We’re back with a new episode @basispointpod and I may have lied to @amitisinvesting about something. Listen to find out! The AI Doomers Are BACK, The Fed Sends A MESSAGE, Can The Market Handle ... piped.video/Y90qNohsn28?is=yOO6… via @YouTube

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. The Clarity Act $BTC $ETH failed to advance in the Senate on Sept. 15, with the motion to proceed falling short of the 60-vote threshold in a 49–50 vote. The last-minute Sept. 14 rewrite included 126 Democratic-requested changes, covering state AG enforcement of ethics rules, a Treasury “circuit breaker” on stablecoin rewards if banks see deposit flight, and broader developer, miner, and validator safe harbors. The main sticking point was ethics language tied to official crypto holdings. The final text would have required covered officials and spouses to divest certain crypto interests or place them in a qualified blind trust, but critics argued it still left unresolved concerns around presidential crypto ventures. Markets sold the news, with Bitcoin down about 3% and $COIN Coinbase and $CRCL Circle falling roughly 8%-10% after the vote. 2. Elon Musk made several notable comments at the All-In Summit across $SPCX SpaceX, $TSLA Tesla, and AI safety. On Starship, he said the odds of catching the ship on the first try are “at least 50 or 60%,” and that he thinks it is “extremely likely” SpaceX achieves full reusability with rapid reflight in 2027. Asked why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate companies, Musk said, “Great question. Nobody's ever asked that one,” before adding, “Imagine what action one might take when there's so much close collaboration in so many areas.” On AI safety, Musk said the danger of AI is “very significant” and that when people from Anthropic and OpenAI say their models are dangerous, “we should believe them.” He also suggested that major AI competitors should test each other’s models, saying it would be better than companies “grading your own homework.” 3. Grab $GRAB will acquire a controlling 60% stake in Atome Financial for $1.49B in cash, expanding its consumer lending business across Southeast Asia. Atome operates BNPL, cash loans, cards, and digital lending across 5 markets, with a $1B gross loan portfolio and 25M cumulative transacted users. Grab expects the deal to help its Financial Services segment reach $500M in adjusted EBITDA and a $6B+ gross loan portfolio by 2028. The company also raised its 2028 group targets to $1.7B in adjusted EBITDA and 30%+ revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2028. Grab has also agreed to acquire the remaining 40% roughly two years after the first deal closes, with the valuation capped at $4.5B. 4. Global yields are breaking into decades-high territory: U.S. yields are at 2007 levels, UK yields at 1998 levels, Germany and France at 2008 levels, and Japan at 1996 levels. China is the major outlier, with government borrowing costs near record lows. Meanwhile, U.S. diesel prices hit a new record $6.26/gallon, up more than 80% in 9 months, leaving truck drivers paying nearly $3.00/gallon more than they were in January. California gas prices have also pushed above $6.00/gallon, adding another inflation shock as oil supply risks continue to build. 5. Officials from all 27 EU member states are set to meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss international rules for advanced AI and receive a technical briefing on recent AI incidents, according to POLITICO. The discussions are expected to focus on global coordination through groups including the G7, G20, and United Nations. Europe already regulates advanced AI through its AI Act, with the European Commission beginning enforcement of parts of the law in August and the European AI Board coordinating implementation across member states. EU tech chief Henna Virkkunen has also called for greater international cooperation and regulatory interoperability to prevent fragmented AI rules across countries. 6. Another AI safety researcher has resigned from a frontier lab, this time from $GOOGL Google DeepMind, where he worked on AGI safety and alignment. He said he is “extremely concerned” by the default trajectory of AI and believes the technology “has the potential to kill us all” if current risks are not addressed. He pointed to the pace of progress since 2022, arguing that frontier systems have moved from being “amusingly useless” to agent swarms solving major math problems and allegedly escaping control in the Hugging Face incident. His core concern is that superintelligent systems could emerge within the next few years before alignment is solved, with capabilities advancing faster than researchers’ ability to ensure these systems actually do what humans want. He called for more coordination between AI companies, a slower pace of development, greater transparency into frontier labs, and more people working on catastrophic AI-risk mitigation. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 1.5M contracts, $TSLA with 1.5M contracts, $META with 868K contracts, $SPCX with 845K contracts, $AMZN with 710K contracts, $AAPL with 700K contracts, $INTC with 520K contracts, $MU with 512K contracts, $AMD with 387K contracts, and $PLTR with 361K contracts. 8. Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at Yanbu, its main Red Sea export port, after attacks on the East-West pipeline, according to Reuters. Yanbu typically exports up to 5M barrels/day, making the disruption another major pressure point for an already tight energy market. 9. OpenAI has held early talks with investors about a new private funding round that could value the company at roughly $1.2T, up from $852B in March, according to the Financial Times. The discussions were reportedly initiated by investors and remain at an early stage. OpenAI’s annualized revenue passed $40B last month after jumping about 20% following GPT-5.6, while Sam Altman has said an IPO is unlikely before 2027. The company raised $122B in March and spent $34B last year, underscoring both the scale of demand and the massive capital intensity behind the AI buildout. 10. Meta $META CEO Mark Zuckerberg said he does not think the AI industry needs a coordinated pause. His view is that each lab should slow down on its own when safety requires it, and that alignment will increasingly become a competitive advantage because people will not use AI agents they cannot trust. Meta already delayed Muse for several months to address safety and security issues without asking other labs to pause with it. Zuckerberg also said Meta has committed the significant majority of its compute to serving users rather than racing toward recursive AI self-improvement. 11. Long-term unemployment in the U.S. continued to rise in August, with the number of Americans unemployed for 27+ weeks jumping by 155,000 to 1.93M, the 4th-highest reading since December 2021. As a share of total unemployment, long-term unemployment rose 1.5 percentage points to 27.0%, the 3rd-highest level since December 2021. The metric has now been climbing for more than 3 years and is higher than in every recession except the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2020 Pandemic. For context, this cycle’s low was 17.8% in February 2023. 12. Tomorrow will be one of the most important FOMC descisions all year. Kevin Warsh was asked in July 2025 whether his push for Fed rate cuts was influenced by the president who might appoint him to lead the central bank. His response: “There's a time for a bird to change his feathers, and it's with the times. It has nothing to do with this president.” Fast forward to today, and Wall Street has largely shifted toward expecting a Fed hike this week, driven by Warsh’s read on the economy and the way the macro backdrop has changed since he took over in May. The biggest shift has come from the Iran War, rising inflation pressure, and the AI investment boom. As of today, nearly every major bank on the Fed call sheet expects a September hike, with most looking for 50 bps, while Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC expect 75 bps. Central bank watchers now expect not just one hike this week, but potentially another before year-end. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Looking for someone in NYC that understands audio/video/streaming/cameras/audio engineering/OBS/all that good stuff. Working on a project and need some help. Paid opportunity with the potential for it to be a full time opportunity. Really need someone who understands all elements of the stack. Please DM or reach out amit@akcomms.com!

CLARITY ACT FAILS PROCEDURAL VOTE they couldn't even get enough votes to get to the actual vote on the bill great job congress, thanks for being useless

Bessent is in a hard spot. He can’t argue that the bond market is healthy when his intervention isn’t working to bring down yields. He also can’t say that everything will be okay when the Iran War is over because that would delegitimize Trump’s stance. So his best answer is left to say that the US bond market is the best bond market in the world, which is true, but still doesn’t mean that it’s going to be easy to finance $10T of debt at the highest rates in 3 years.

Due to the flurry of news surrounding AI I just wrote an article about cybersecurity on @artemis which can be read below: artemis.ai/stevenfiorillo/ar…

Just wrapped up a big day at @PalantirTech’s  #AIPCon.   Being alongside leaders who are working at the edge of what’s possible across industries was truly energizing.     The event was beyond incredible and a great opportunity to share with Palantir's enterprise customers how we can help them lower their marketing and CRM cost by 50%. And why @ZetaGlobal +Palantir represents a 1+1=4 opportunity.     And I bumped into one of my favorite people for an interview. @amitisinvesting. The interview and full recording from my keynote will drop next week. $ZETA     LG 🚀🚀🚀

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Palantir $PLTR named Nebius $NBIS its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, announcing a strategic partnership to integrate Nebius compute and inference endpoints directly inside Palantir’s enterprise perimeter. The integration will allow eligible Palantir commercial customers to run open AI models on Nebius infrastructure, continuously adapt them using proprietary company data, and maintain control over their compute, models, and data. The companies also plan to bring new AI compute capacity online faster, including modular data-center deployments in locations where power is already available. Palantir CEO Alex Karp said, “Nebius’ compute infrastructure powers your ability to run your own AI models under conditions you control. Our ontology and their infrastructure will undergird the sovereignty our partners are demanding.” Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh added that the partnership will help commercial clients run optimized open models on trusted infrastructure while maintaining control over their data and models. 2. The EU and Canada are reportedly set to announce a major “all-encompassing” partnership spanning trade and security after President Trump’s latest tariffs, according to Bloomberg. The goal is to build a new alliance that helps offset global power politics dominated by the U.S. and China. The partnership is expected to be announced on September 16, with Canada and the EU reportedly aiming to get “as close as legally possible” short of EU membership. Canada has also become the first country outside the EU to join the bloc’s $175B military procurement fund, underscoring how quickly trade tensions are pushing allies toward deeper economic and defense cooperation. 3. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF $IBIT has attracted $3.7B of inflows so far this quarter, putting it on pace for its largest quarterly intake since Q3 2025. The fund has already added $459.8M in September inflows, following $3.0B in August, its biggest monthly inflow since October 2025. As a result, $IBIT AUM has climbed to $62.6B, near its highest level since mid-May. Since the start of July, the fund’s AUM has increased by $19.6B, or 46%, showing renewed institutional and retail demand for Bitcoin exposure through ETFs. 4. OpenAI CFO said at the Goldman Sachs conference that the consumer business is accelerating, with July revenue up 20% MoM. The enterprise business grew even faster, with July revenue up 32% MoM. OpenAI’s revenue mix is now roughly 50/50 between enterprise and consumer, showing that growth is broadening beyond ChatGPT subscriptions and into business adoption. 5. Schwab retail activity in August shows investors selling the software rip and buying the semiconductor dip. The top retail buys were $SPCX, $MU, $NVDA, $INTC, and $GOOGL, while the top sells were $NOW, $ADBE, $MSFT, $PLTR, and $ORCL. The shift points to more active portfolio management from retail investors, with money rotating out of crowded software winners and into AI, chips, and compute-related names after pullbacks. 6. Copper prices on the LME have surged to a record $14,533/ton, now up 47% over the last 12 months. The move is being driven by tight supply and rising demand from data centers, renewable energy, and power grids. Expectations that President Trump could expand tariffs to refined copper imports have also pushed U.S. Comex prices above global prices, creating an incentive for traders to ship hundreds of thousands of tons of copper into the U.S. to capture the price spread. As a result, global stockpiles are becoming increasingly concentrated in the U.S., draining LME inventories to critically low levels and leaving less readily available copper for buyers elsewhere. 7. Meta $META launched Muse, a personal AI agent that can take actions across apps and the web, including sending emails, booking travel, filling out forms, and making purchases with user approval. Muse runs on Meta’s new Muse Secure VM, giving each user a dedicated cloud environment with a separate Sentinel agent that reviews actions before they reach the internet. The agent can continue working after the app is closed, remember user preferences, and proactively move longer-term tasks forward. Meta is also integrating Stripe Link for checkout, with Shop Pay and 1Password support coming later. 8. IREN $IREN said its 2 GW Sweetwater Hub has been conditionally included as base load in ERCOT Batch Zero. Sweetwater 1 accounts for 1.4 GW and Sweetwater 2 for 600 MW, both part of IREN’s broader 5 GW+ global data-center development pipeline. At Sweetwater 1, the high-voltage substation is already energized, with 300 MW of gross data-center capacity under construction and targeted for delivery in Q4 2027. IREN also said additional large-scale projects across its development pipeline have been included in Batch Zero, though ERCOT classifications remain conditional and subject to further approvals. 9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 2.4M contracts, $NVDA with 2.2M contracts, $INTC with 1.3M contracts, $SPCX with 847K contracts, $AAPL with 689K contracts, $MU with 673K contracts, $AMD with 615K contracts, $META with 568K contracts, $AMZN with 524K contracts, and $CRWV with 477K contracts. 10. The U.S. government is backing Rigetti $RGTI and D-Wave $QBTS with up to $200M for quantum computing R&D. Rigetti signed a definitive $100M agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce to address key scaling bottlenecks in superconducting quantum systems, including cryogenics, readout electronics, and high-connectivity chip fabrication. D-Wave separately finalized access to up to $100M to advance its annealing and gate-model platforms, including work on a 100,000-qubit annealing system and a 10,000-qubit gate-model system targeting 100 logical qubits. As part of the funding, the Commerce Department will receive minority, non-controlling equity stakes in both companies. 11. Uber $UBER President and COO Andrew Macdonald purchased 70,000 shares for roughly $5.3M. Macdonald is one of Uber’s longest-tenured executives, making the insider buy notable given his deep knowledge of the business, operations, and long-term strategy. 12. U.S. data center construction spending surged 57% YoY in July to a record annualized rate of $75B, following a 46% YoY increase in June and marking the fastest growth since mid-2025. Since the start of 2021, data center construction spending has soared by $66B, or 717%. Since the end of 2023 alone, spending has risen by $51B. Over that same period, all other private construction spending — including housing, shopping centers, and offices — has declined by $120B, showing how dramatically AI infrastructure is diverging from the rest of the construction market. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$PLTR Chad Wahlquist @chadwahl: "You can only cut so much if you know there's only so many people you can fire or replace in a company. There's infinite amount of growth you can have if you enable those people to do 10 times more. That's what we believe at Palantir."

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Broadcom $AVGO said it has a “high degree of confidence” it will ship $350B of AI semiconductors over the next 2 years, even if all 30 GW of demand is not deployed because of land, power, and data center constraints. The company laid out a massive AI growth path, targeting AI semiconductor revenue of roughly $58B in FY26, $115B in FY27, and $230B in FY28 — a 4x increase in just 2 years. Broadcom said every 1 GW deployed by OpenAI or Anthropic could support about $30B in annual AI revenue, while AI networking revenue is expected to grow just as fast as its XPU business. In Q3’26, Broadcom reported revenue of $29.6B, beating estimates of $29.36B and up 86% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $3.32 versus $3.24 expected. AI semiconductor revenue surged 221% YoY to $16.7B, and Broadcom expects that to accelerate to $21.7B in Q4, up 236% YoY, while also targeting $30+ EPS in FY28. 2. Meta $META rolled out Muse Spark 1.3, saying the latest model delivers its biggest coding and agentic performance jump yet. Meta says Muse Spark 1.3 matches GPT-5.6 Sol on Terminal-Bench 2.1 with a score of 88.8 and reaches 75.4 on DeepSWE. The model is available now through Muse Code and the API. Zuckerberg also teased Watermelon and open weights coming next, signaling Meta is continuing to push aggressively on frontier coding agents and open AI distribution. 3. Nvidia-backed neocloud Nscale is telling prospective IPO investors it has roughly $103B in contracted revenue, up from $51B before its $45B compute deal with Anthropic, according to The Information. The contracts average 5.7 years, implying about $18B of future contracted revenue per year, though the figure is not current revenue or formal guidance and was described by one source as “illustrative.” Actual revenue is still much smaller but scaling quickly, rising from about $37M in Q1 2026 to more than $100M in Q2, excluding the Anthropic deal, as Nscale prepares for an IPO that could come as soon as this month. 4. HPE $HPE expanded its Oracle $ORCL AI data center deal, with HPE set to deploy Juniper networking gear across Oracle AI data centers globally under a potential multi-year agreement. The deal covers routing, switching, networking support, and financing for OCI’s AI clusters, regional data centers, and edge networks, while HPE also issued Oracle warrants to purchase HPE shares. Separately, HPE reported Q3’26 revenue of $12.2B, beating estimates of $11.91B and up 34% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $1.11 versus $0.93 expected. Networking revenue surged 74.9% YoY to $2.9B, while Cloud & AI revenue rose 25.4% YoY to $9.0B. HPE guided Q4 revenue to $13.9B–$14.8B, above the $12.96B estimate, raised FY26 guidance, and said AI is becoming a multi-year growth driver as record backlog supports the outlook. 5. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Tempus $TEM at Overweight with an $80 price target, arguing the company is being mispriced as a traditional life sciences data vendor rather than an AI-powered platform business. The firm says Tempus’ Data & Applications segment has a stronger growth and margin profile than the market is giving it credit for, with 26% growth and 76% gross margins. Cantor believes the segment should be compared more closely to platform peers like $PLTR, $SNOW, $DDOG, and $RDDT rather than slower-growing data-vendor peers, creating a favorable upside risk/reward. 6. Google $GOOGL launched Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, a new cybersecurity-focused AI model that scored 86.2% on CyberGym and 47.2% on CWE-Bench. Google says the model has a 70%+ success rate identifying vulnerabilities across 20 programming languages and produced 2.6x more correct patches than larger models on real Chrome security bugs. Initial access is limited to government agencies and cybersecurity partners through Google’s Fairwind program. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 5.7M contracts, $TSLA with 2.8M contracts, $AAPL with 1.7M contracts, $META with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 959K contracts, $AMZN with 732K contracts, $PLTR with 675K contracts, $DELL with 633K contracts, $INTC with 557K contracts, and $GOOGL with 536K contracts. 8. JPMorgan says a 5% 10-year Treasury yield could be the level that starts to pressure stocks, with Grace Peters noting that “5% psychologically has an impact” and could trigger a knee-jerk equity selloff. She sees a potential 5%-8% correction into the midterms, but views that as a healthy pullback rather than a structural break. JPMorgan remains constructive on stocks longer term, with its thesis centered on a capex-driven earnings supercycle, while the key medium-term test for AI will be whether the spending translates into real returns. 9. Berenberg initiated Rocket Lab $RKLB at Buy with an $83 price target, implying about 29%-35% upside, calling it the only end-to-end public pure-play in space across launch, satellites, components, and spectrum. The firm says Rocket Lab has an effective monopoly in dedicated small-lift launch, is entering medium-lift with Neutron, and is benefiting from rapid growth in satellite manufacturing and components as space budgets hit records. Berenberg also said the Iridium acquisition adds scarce global spectrum and recurring applications revenue, while Rocket Lab’s vertical integration gives it long-term optionality not fully reflected in the stock’s valuation. While acknowledging execution risk and a high multiple, the firm called Rocket Lab one of the most compelling long-term assets in the space sector and said it would buy or add on volatility. 10. The 60+ day delinquency rate on U.S. subprime auto loans has climbed to roughly 5.2%, the highest level on record and more than double where it was four years ago. Serious subprime auto delinquencies are now about 1.7 percentage points above their 2008 financial crisis peak, while prime auto loan delinquencies have also risen to around 0.4%, near the highest level since 2011. At the same time, total U.S. auto debt increased by $28B in Q2 2026 to a record $1.71T. 11. Onchain tokenized equity holders have reached a record 1.9M, up 134% month-over-month and 1,360% year-to-date. Just 10 months ago, fewer than 100,000 people held tokenized assets, but demand for 24/7 markets and access to names tied to the record IPO wave, including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, has accelerated adoption. Jupiter, the largest onchain trading platform on Solana, has driven much of the growth, with 61% of volume now happening during off-hours and active tokenized equity traders up 46% month-over-month. 12. Microsoft $MSFT will begin disclosing Azure revenue as part of a major FY27 reporting overhaul, shifting from three business segments to two: Agents & Infrastructure and Devices & Consumer. For Q1 FY27, Microsoft expects Azure growth of 44%-45% in constant currency, Agents & Infrastructure revenue of $75.15B-$75.75B, Devices & Consumer revenue of $14.7B-$15.2B, Microsoft 365 Commercial Cloud growth of about 17% in constant currency, and Search & Ads ex-TAC growth in the mid-to-high single digits. The new structure marks Microsoft’s biggest reporting change since adopting its prior three-segment model in FY2016. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Nate @EndicottInvests and I discuss everything SaaS, AI, GPU's and NeoClouds in this video as we cover $NVDA $NBIS $CWRV $CRM $NOW $SPCX and more. NVIDIA & Salesforce Deliver, Amazon Buying Additional GPU's, NeoCloud Po... piped.video/0DkFivJAob8?si=xWY2… via @YouTube

Here is the full video to my post from yesterday. A Response to Ed Zitron: Rebutting 37 AI Skeptic Claims with Data piped.video/xv875XFyzEY?si=bmDo… via @YouTube

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT IS SEPTEMBER? Historically, it is the worst month of the year. September is usually down 0.6% on average and only higher around 45% of the time. It has also been the worst month over the past 10 years and the 3rd worst month in a midterm year. Stocks are red in the premarket has two Saudi oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz last night, each vessel carrying 2M barrels of oil. Crude is up 3% to $87.5 and the 10-yr yield just hit its highest level since Jan 2025. September rate hike probabilities are now 65%, up from 30% last week. At the same time, last year September was very strong because the S&P took a big drawdown in April with liberation day. This year, the S&P already had a 10% correction in March and the deleveraging event in July took most high-beta names down 40-50%. The question now is if those two drawdowns happening were enough to avoid a normal September hit.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Tesla $TSLA rose 5% today, marking its best day since early July. The move comes ahead of Tesla’s upcoming Cybercab Launch Event, where investors will be watching for concrete updates on robotaxi deployment, Cybercab production, autonomy progress, and whether Tesla can turn the vehicle from a concept into a real revenue-generating fleet. Tesla has already disclosed that Cybercab production has started, with public-road engineering tests and employee rides beginning at Giga Texas. The key question is whether the event delivers actual deployment details rather than another demo, including timing, fleet size, city expansion, and cost-per-mile economics. 2. Treasury Secretary Bessent today at the G20 summit said he believes the Japanese government and Bank of Japan will take actions that lead to a stronger yen. On the Fed, he said he would not speculate on what policymakers may or may not do, but added that traditionally “you don’t raise into a supply shock.” On bonds, Bessent said he and Warsh are “on the same page,” while noting he does not believe he can change the market’s equilibrium price. He also said Trump believes Iran is not ready to make a deal yet, and that Operation Outcast is aimed at creating conditions that bring Iran back to the table. 3. Anthropic has reportedly signed a $35B cloud deal with Lambda, an Nvidia-backed cloud provider, according to WSJ. The twist: Nvidia $NVDA is effectively the landlord. The data center is being built by Hut 8 in Nueces County, Texas, and Nvidia signed its own agreement with Hut 8 a few weeks ago to lock down the capacity. Lambda will use that space to run chips it bought from Nvidia, which is also one of its investors. The deal highlights how Nvidia is extending its role beyond selling GPUs and deeper into the AI infrastructure stack with financing, capacity access, cloud partners, and the physical data center footprint behind frontier AI demand. 4. The FTC and 22 states are reportedly preparing to sue Amazon $AMZN over alleged secret ad price hikes. The FTC is expected to claim Amazon manipulated its ad auctions by inserting its own “soft reserve” bid above the runner-up bid, effectively raising the minimum price advertisers had to pay. The practice allegedly began in 2018 and generated tens of billions of dollars over 7 years. In recent years, Amazon allegedly used the mechanism to raise minimum bids 70%–80% of the time, with the FTC claiming it increased pay-per-click costs by as much as 50% on major shopping days. Amazon generated $68B in advertising revenue in 2025, and this would mark the FTC’s third major case against the company after its Prime case and ongoing monopoly lawsuit. 5. Retail investors bought roughly $250M of Nvidia $NVDA shares on Wednesday, their 3rd-largest daily purchase since mid-May. That extended the retail buying streak to 15 consecutive trading sessions, with investors purchasing more than $2.5B of Nvidia stock over that period. For context, the largest daily retail purchase came in late February at about $1.0B. Over the last 12 months, retail investors have bought roughly $30.0B of Nvidia shares, the most of any Magnificent 7 company. 6. The White House published details of the U.S.–Venezuela oil deal, saying Venezuela has granted North American Blue Energy Partners 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields. The fields reportedly contain roughly 65B barrels of proven oil reserves, while NABEP plans to invest up to $100B into Venezuelan oil infrastructure to rapidly increase production. As part of the deal, the U.S. government receives a 35% equity stake in NABEP’s parent company at “zero cost to taxpayers,” the right to purchase 20% of all current and future production at production cost, and the right of first refusal on the remaining 80%. The U.S. also gets veto power over board appointments, with a majority of NABEP’s board required to be U.S. citizens. Venezuela is expected to receive roughly $200B in royalties and tax payments over the first 25 years, while the White House is calling it the “biggest oil deal in world history.” 7. U.S. annual interest expense has climbed to a record 18.5% of federal government revenue, officially surpassing the prior record of 18.4% set in 1991. This share has more than quadrupled over the last 4 years as interest costs on public debt have surged. Annual interest expense now stands at a record $1.25T, more than 4x the level seen in 1991. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield is trading around 5.21%, just 13 bps below its highest level since 2007. For context, the 30-year yield was around 8.00% in 1991, highlighting how much larger the U.S. debt burden has become. 8. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on Meta $META with an $810 price target, highlighting the potential launch of Meta’s consumer AI agent Hatch in early September inside Instagram and WhatsApp. Hatch can reportedly browse websites and navigate user interfaces to complete autonomous tasks like purchases, restaurant bookings, form filling, and communications. Meta is also reportedly targeting an October launch for its new AI model, Watermelon, which has shown frontier-level performance on certain internal benchmarks, with Hatch expected to integrate Watermelon’s automation capabilities after launch. BofA sees a major long-term opportunity in consumer AI agents, with Meta’s global user base giving it a significant adoption advantage, but said success will depend on ease of use, real utility, ecosystem integration, user trust around automation and security, and subscription pricing that creates consumer value while earning a return on Meta’s compute investment. 9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 4.4M contracts, $NVDA with 3.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.3M contracts, $AMZN with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 952K contracts, $META with 606K contracts, $SPCX with 561K contracts, $INTC with 470K contracts, $PCG with 460K contracts, and $GOOG with 453K contracts. 10. Trump said interest rates are “too high” and said he has “a lot of respect” for Fed’s Warsh, adding that Warsh will “do what he has to do.” On Iran, Trump said any strikes would be limited, while noting that a lot of oil is still coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. He said ships came through Hormuz last night with Navy assistance and that the U.S. is averaging about 30 ships per night out of the Strait. Trump also said Iran “doesn’t know who the leader is,” adding, “we’ll see what happens.” 11. Take-Two $TTWO fell 7% as GTA 6 leaks continued ahead of the November 19 release. Recent leaked footage has reportedly shown combat, vehicle theft, the return of the six-star wanted system, a biplane flight over Vice City, and a 4.5-minute Lucia story clip. The pressure reflects growing concern around how much of the game is being revealed before launch, even as GTA 6 remains one of the most anticipated releases in gaming history. 12. China’s CXMT has reportedly started small-scale production of HBM3E, the advanced memory used in AI processors including Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs, according to The Information. Alibaba’s T-Head and Cambricon are already testing CXMT’s HBM with their AI chips and could begin using it in products as early as 2027, with CXMT planning to expand production next year. The development could ease a key bottleneck for China’s domestic AI-chip industry, which remains restricted from buying the most advanced foreign HBM. The caveat is that CXMT is still facing low yields and remains roughly 3–5 years behind the leading HBM players, while $SKHY SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron $MU are already mass-producing HBM4 and sampling HBM4E. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Ed Zitron @edzitron went on The Compound and Friends @TheCompoundNews this week and Josh and Michael gave him 90 minutes to lay out the full AI bear case. I went through 37 of his claims with the filings open. By my count 19 are wrong or unfalsifiable, 12 are half right and 6 are fair. Here’s the breakdown. Disclosure first. I’m long $NVDA $META $AMZN $GOOGL $ORCL $CRWV $AVGO $PLTR $AAPL $MSFT. I’m obviously talking my book and Ed would be the first to point that out which is exactly why every number below ties back to a filing or a company disclosure you can pull up yourself. Ed taped this on August 27th which was the day after NVIDIA reported its Q2 of fiscal 2027 so I’m using those numbers and the 10-Q that came with them. I want to give Ed credit because he did the work on OpenAI’s audited financials and a lot of his numbers hold up. OpenAI lost $20.9 billion in 2025 on $13.07 billion of revenue. Oracle and CoreWeave are levered. Abilene is late. Private credit is the contagion channel nobody can size from the outside and margin debt hit a record in June. None of that is made up and I think about every one of those risks every day I’m in these names. My problem was never his numbers. It’s what he does with them and what he leaves out. Back in 2023 nobody could tell Ed how much money AI actually made and the hyperscalers wouldn’t break out AI revenue. That was a fair complaint in November 2023. It isn’t one anymore. Microsoft disclosed in its 10-K that it booked $24.1 billion of revenue from OpenAI in fiscal 2026. Amazon said its AI business and its custom chip business each run above $25 billion a year and both are growing triple digits. Google Cloud grew 82% YoY to $24.8 billion. Anthropic told investors it’s at a $65 billion run rate with booked Q2 revenue above $11.5 billion. The question Ed built his whole newsletter around got answered. So the argument has quietly shifted to whether those numbers should count and that’s a much weaker hill to fight on. His biggest claim is that the demand is illusory. He says OpenAI and Anthropic take up 90% of AI infrastructure, that the banks have about $440 billion of cloud revenue coming from two unprofitable startups that need ten times the demand they have today and that by his own estimate there’s only about $22 billion of real compute demand outside the labs. Take the $22 billion first. Amazon says its AI business alone runs above $25 billion a year so one company’s disclosure is already bigger than Ed’s number for the entire industry. Microsoft said its commercial backlog grew 25% with OpenAI stripped out and that the entire $51 billion sequential increase came from customers outside the frontier labs. Add up the contracted backlogs at Microsoft, Oracle, Google, Amazon and CoreWeave and you get roughly $2.45 trillion. Some of that is lab commitments and I’m not pretending otherwise. But Microsoft already told you what its backlog does without OpenAI and Google says more than half of its backlog converts inside two years. Now the $440 billion. Spread that over roughly three and a half years and it’s about $125 billion a year across all three clouds. The two labs already generate about $105 billion a year between them and compute is their biggest cost line. They don’t need ten times the demand they have today. They need to roughly double from here and keep paying their compute bills. Anthropic grew sevenfold in seven months and reported positive adjusted operating income in Q2. Two customers growing that fast is a concentration risk you have to manage. It isn’t evidence of a fraud. Then there’s what the operators themselves said a month before Ed taped this on earnings calls where getting it wrong is a securities law problem. Amy Hood said Microsoft’s cloud revenue passed $214 billion in fiscal 2026 and nearly 90% of it came from customers outside the frontier model companies. Andy Jassy said the lion’s share of AWS capacity for 2027 is already reserved and even $220 billion of CapEx won’t cover the demand Amazon has in 2026. Sundar Pichai said existing cloud customers are running more than 50% above their commitments. Ed’s whole thesis is that these companies are building for two customers who can’t pay. All three of them told you the opposite on the record. The segment numbers back them up. AWS went from $10.2 billion a quarter in Q1 2020 to $42.2 billion in Q2 2026. Growth accelerated for the fifth straight quarter to 36.7% and operating income was $16.6 billion at a 39.4% margin which is up 650 basis points YoY. Barclays (BCS) puts the two labs at 13% of AWS revenue this year so the other 87% of a $169 billion run rate business that just accelerated is everyone else. You don’t expand margins by 650 basis points serving two loss making customers at cost. Google Cloud did $2.8 billion in Q1 2020 and $24.8 billion in Q2 2026. Its growth rate went 32%, 34%, 48%, 63% and 82% over the past five quarters and operating income more than tripled to $8.8 billion at a 35.6% margin. Ed called Alphabet just another LLM company. A profitable AI business growing 82% on its own custom silicon with no OpenAI check behind it is the thing Ed keeps saying can’t exist and it’s sitting right there in the segment table. Ed says Microsoft made $34.33 billion on AI in fiscal 2026 and $24.1 billion of that is OpenAI so selling AI to everyone else is a single digit billion dollar business set against $260 billion of CapEx. His word for it was disaster. Microsoft never reported $34.33 billion of AI revenue. That’s a Bloomberg estimate. The $24.1 billion is real but it includes the revenue sharing payments OpenAI makes to Microsoft and not just Azure consumption. The $260 billion is cumulative CapEx going back to early 2022 by Ed’s own count. What he left out is that Azure passed $100 billion in annual revenue and grew 43% in the June quarter which was the fastest since 2022. Even if you assume every dollar of the $24.1 billion is Azure, OpenAI is still under a quarter of it. Microsoft 365 Copilot went from 15 million paid seats in December to over 30 million in June. Commercial remaining performance obligations hit $678 billion which is up 84% YoY and still up 25% with OpenAI taken out. Microsoft earned $133.7 billion of net income and says it stays free cash flow positive in fiscal 2027 on $175 billion of CapEx. If that’s a disaster I’d like to see what Ed calls a good year. Ed says 16% of Nvidia’s quarter was one customer and five customers make up 70% of their accounts. The 10-Q says one direct customer was 16% of revenue. A year ago two direct customers were 23% and 16% so the top of the list actually got less concentrated. The 70% has nothing to do with revenue. It’s the share of accounts receivable held by five direct customers as of July 26th. He blended two different disclosures on air. Nvidia’s direct customers are clouds and those clouds have millions of customers standing behind them. Then GitHub Copilot. Ed says it let people burn $5,000 of tokens for $40 a month, moved to token billing on June 1st and now the business is dead. Nadella said on the July call that GitHub Copilot has 50 million users and revenue accelerated more than 60% quarter over quarter after the billing change. Ed can’t have it both ways on this one. Twelve minutes later he’s complaining that AI companies subsidize tokens and let people burn thousands of dollars of compute for $200 a month. When Microsoft stops subsidizing he calls it a rug pull. You have to pick one. He also says nothing has gotten cheaper. GPT-4 quality cost $30 per million tokens in 2023 and you can get it for under 50 cents today. Coal got cheaper too and the world burned more of it. On OpenAI being a liability that Microsoft has to consolidate. Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI. At the $852 billion valuation from the last round that stake is worth about $230 billion on roughly $13 billion invested. If that’s a liability I’d take a few more of them. Receivables from OpenAI were $6 billion at June 30th against $24.1 billion of annual revenue. That’s ninety days of sales. Nobody is stapling IOUs to anything. Ed says to hit fiscal 2028 consensus Nvidia needs three to five customers to find way more debt at higher rates while it just raised prices 17% and memory costs are skyrocketing. Nvidia guided fiscal 2028 growth of 70% this week and said out loud that the guide is supply constrained while customer forecasts point to growth doubling. A bubble that’s popping doesn’t have customers asking for more than the vendor can build. The price hikes are real and the driver is a supply squeeze in high bandwidth memory. Prices fall when demand disappears. They don’t go up double digits. The hyperscalers also aren’t funding any of this with junk debt. Alphabet and Amazon generated $185.7 billion and $161.4 billion of trailing operating cash flow and their bonds are AA rated. Michael put up Nvidia’s trailing net income passing Apple’s and Ed asked how much of it was equity gains from Anthropic, OpenAI, CoreWeave and Nebius (NBIS). Fair question. Gains on equity securities were $7.8 billion and they sit below the operating line. Operating income was $63.7 billion which on its own was bigger than Nvidia’s entire revenue in the same quarter a year earlier. That’s cash and not a mark to market. Then the part I’d replay in slow motion if I could. Ed said he was wrong in 2024 because he was naive and assumed the market wouldn’t spend hundreds of billions for no reason. Later in the show he said he’s stopped giving timelines altogether. So the thesis has been wrong for two years and the explanation is that everyone else is stupid. When your model fails for two years the scientific move is to update the model. Ed’s move was to extend the deadline. Ed calls run rate the biggest scam of them all. Run rate is just the latest period’s revenue annualized and Bloomberg defined it exactly that way in the same article Ed was criticizing. But fine. Use the booked numbers. Anthropic disclosed Q2 revenue above $11.5 billion. That’s one quarter, it’s booked and it’s fourteen times the year ago quarter. His recurring revenue argument is backwards too. AWS is consumption revenue. Wall Street pays premium multiples for consumption businesses because usage that’s embedded in a workflow is stickier than a seat license somebody forgets to cancel. If you want contracted revenue Microsoft reports $678 billion of it, Google has $514 billion and Amazon has $496 billion. Those are signed contracts and not annualized months. On the lenders being idiots. Ed cites a report that Blue Owl (OWL) agreed to invest in Stargate Abilene in ten minutes. The hosts pushed back on that in real time and I would have too. The Abilene financing was a $15 billion joint venture with a $7.1 billion construction loan led by JPMorgan (JPM). Banks with actual syndication desks did the underwriting. I’ll concede the schedule to him. Buildings three and four are months late. A construction project running late is a construction project running late. It isn’t a solvency event. Ed says every AI startup loses money and when customers see the real cost of tokens they shrivel away. Airbnb (ABNB) is the cleanest counterexample I can think of and it happened two weeks ago. Brian Chesky said the company will spend a lot more on AI tokens this year than it forecast because the ROI is there. Support cost per booking fell 16% YoY with the AI assistant resolving 45% of the issues it starts. Anthropic’s run rate went up after it moved enterprise customers to per token pricing which is the exact event Ed says should have collapsed demand. Ramp’s spend data says 43.5% of US businesses paid for Anthropic products in July, up from 9% in May of last year. If the real cost of tokens were driving people away the adoption curve would be bending the other way. Ed cites a blog post arguing most AI integrations fail and executives adopt out of fear. I’ll believe the Census Bureau over a blog post as its May 2026 survey indicated that 19.8% of US businesses use AI in a business function. It also said that 37% of firms with 250 or more employees use AI in a business function and 43% of American workers reported that they use generative AI for work. Microsoft sold 10 million Copilot seats in a single quarter and it’s hard to believe that ten million seats would be sold if AI integrations were failing. Flip the Census number around and 80% of US businesses still haven’t adopted AI in any function. I don’t read that as a failed rollout. I read it as runway. Ed says Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon are all slowing and the only companies growing are the ones getting checks from the labs. Google Cloud grew 82%. Azure grew 43%. AWS grew 37%. Meta grew 28% with no lab money at all. He said Meta didn’t grow like gangbusters and the Q3 guide proves the slowdown is here. Meta’s Q2 revenue was $60.8 billion which was up 28% YoY after 33% in Q1. Ad impressions grew 14% and price per ad grew 12%. The Q3 guide of $61 to $64 billion against $51.2 billion a year earlier works out to 19% to 25% growth. So the slowdown Ed is describing is a company growing more than 20% on a $250 billion revenue base. Meta’s cloud didn’t grow like Microsoft’s because Meta doesn’t sell cloud. It’s an ad company and a 12% higher price per ad is what AI ranking looks like when it shows up in the numbers. Ed says OpenAI’s actual numbers are bad. They are and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. But OpenAI lost $2.37 for every dollar of revenue in 2024, $1.60 in 2025 and $1.22 in Q1 2026. The losses are shrinking as a share of sales while revenue triples. OpenAI is the weakest link in the entire AI trade and I’d say that on any stream. The difference between me and Ed is that I think the IPO is the test and he thinks the test can’t be passed. Now the claim Ed comes back to over and over for the whole interview. OpenAI and Anthropic are unprofitable startups that need to constantly raise money, they can’t pay for this out of cash flow and it all comes down to when the money runs out. Every word of that assumes these two are financed the way CoreWeave or Oracle are financed. Borrow, burn and default when the coupon comes due. They aren’t. Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has issued a bond. Neither has a term loan. The Information reviewed OpenAI’s financials as of March 31st and reported zero debt. OpenAI’s only bank facility is a $4.7 billion revolver that was undrawn when the March round closed. Anthropic has a $2.5 billion revolver and is arranging a bigger one ahead of the IPO which is the same thing SpaceX (SPCX) did before it listed. What they have instead is equity. Roughly $180 billion raised by OpenAI and roughly $130 billion by Anthropic and all of it came from investors who bought shares. Equity has no maturity date and no interest payment. Nobody at OpenAI wires a coupon to SoftBank (SFTBY) every quarter. Every one of those rounds was also raised with the stated purpose of spending it. The investors funded the burn on purpose because the burn is what buys the growth. So the question Ed keeps asking about when revenue recaptures the spending is the wrong question for an equity funded company. Anthropic’s Series E investors paid a $61.5 billion valuation in March of last year. The Series H in May was $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation. That’s more than fifteen times in fourteen months. OpenAI went from $157 billion in October 2024 to $852 billion in March. Those are the people Ed says are about to stop writing checks. The debt does exist. It just sits somewhere else. SoftBank borrowed against its own balance sheet to fund its OpenAI checks and its lenders have recourse to SoftBank and not to OpenAI. Oracle, CoreWeave, Crusoe and the Blue Owl joint ventures borrowed to build the buildings. That’s landlord risk backed by signed leases with the labs which is Ed’s private credit point and I’ve already conceded it. OpenAI’s $665 billion of compute commitments are contracts to buy capacity over five to ten years. That isn’t borrowed money. Amazon’s stake in Anthropic is worth more than every dollar Anthropic has committed to spend at AWS over the next decade. Every hypergrowth company you’ve ever owned was built with other people’s money while it lost money. Amazon sold junk bonds in 1998 and 1999. Tesla (TSLA) sold junk bonds in 2017. Uber (UBER) sold junk bonds in 2018. OpenAI and Anthropic haven’t sold one. They’re running the version with less leverage than the last three generations of tech winners and Ed is describing it as the most fragile capital structure he’s ever seen. Both labs have filed confidentially. Anthropic is targeting a Nasdaq listing in October and OpenAI’s CFO told staff it will be public in 2027. Ed’s version of this story ends with the labs failing to raise. The actual story so far is the two biggest private rounds in history and it looks like they’re about to be followed by the two biggest IPOs in history. Ed says Anthropic is rushing to go public before it has to show Q3 books because token maxing is over and Fable 5 petered out at 11% market share according to Ramp. Anthropic’s run rate went from $47 billion in mid May to $65 billion at the end of July. That’s $18 billion of annualized revenue added in ten weeks during the exact window Ed says customers hit a ceiling. The 11% also isn’t market share. Ramp says Fable 5 is 6% of the tokens businesses buy from Anthropic and 11.4% of the dollars. The most expensive model takes a modest share of Anthropic’s own mix while Sonnet and Opus carry the volume. He also got the Meta and Anthropic story backwards. The reported deal is Anthropic leasing about $10 billion of compute from Meta over two years with Anthropic paying Meta monthly. Meta is the landlord in that arrangement and not the customer. Ed spent ten minutes saying Meta has nothing to show for its CapEx. The Anthropic talks are Meta showing you the return on that CapEx. Now the four horsemen. Horseman one is CoreWeave failing to raise debt. CoreWeave raised $13.5 billion of gross debt in Q2 alone including more than $10 billion of unsecured notes and converts, its first Eurobond and a $1 billion check from Jane Street. Backlog is about $104 billion against full year revenue guidance of $12.4 to $13.2 billion. Ed’s cost of debt point stands and I own the stock so I watch it closely. The 2031 notes yield around 11.5% and net interest expense was $640 million in the quarter. That’s the price of growing 112% with somebody else’s money. Horseman two is a hyperscaler bond deal that barely gets covered. Ed says Amazon’s last deal was only 1.6 times oversubscribed. Peak demand on the $25 billion July deal was $62 billion which is 2.5 times covered. The book shrank to $41 billion because the banks tightened the spread once they saw the demand and a thin book doesn’t let you do that. Amazon’s March deal drew $126 billion of orders for a $37 billion issue and Alphabet’s $32 billion February deal was four to five times covered. A functioning market prices more supply a few basis points wider. A closed one doesn’t price at all. Horseman three is Oracle. Ed says the ratings agencies don’t have the stones to downgrade it. S&P Global (SPGI) cut Oracle to BBB minus on July 9th and named OpenAI as a key credit risk. That happened seven weeks before he said it. Oracle’s CDS hit a record 198 basis points and the stock is down about 65% from the peak. I’m long Oracle and I added through the July selloff so I’ll be straight with you about the risk. Fiscal 2027 CapEx is up to $95 billion, free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion last year and there’s $20 billion of equity coming. It’s a levered bet on a $638 billion backlog where OpenAI is about half of it. I know that and I’m underwriting it on purpose. Ed conceded Oracle is the one company he’s certain would get bailed out. I’d rather own the company the biggest bear in the world thinks is too important to fail than short it. Horseman four is a major AI startup going insolvent and his example is Perplexity which he says has faded. Perplexity’s annualized revenue went from under $250 million at the start of the year to more than $750 million by August. It tripled in eight months. Nvidia backed it in three prior rounds and is discussing a new one above $30 billion. If that’s the startup whose death is supposed to signal the apocalypse then the apocalypse is a long way off. Michael asked where the mania is when Nvidia trades at 18 times forward earnings and Meta trades at 16. Ed’s answer was that the mania isn’t in the equity market and it’s in data center construction instead. Sit with that for a second. The biggest AI bear in the world just agreed those aren’t bubble multiples. Cisco (CSCO) peaked at more than 130 times forward earnings in March 2000 and in the ten fiscal years after the bubble popped Cisco earned roughly $50 billion in total. Nvidia earned more than that last quarter and trades at a market multiple. A market that sends Oracle down 65% while it rewards Alphabet on the same CapEx news isn’t a mania. Manias don’t discriminate like that. Josh asked the best question of the whole show. What would make Ed change his mind? His answer was that even profitability at OpenAI and Anthropic in 2028 wouldn’t do it. I don’t know how to call that a thesis. A thesis has some condition under which it fails. He also said he has no money in the market. A bear with no position, no timeline and no way to be proven wrong can never be wrong. That’s a comfortable place for him to sit and a useless one for you. Ed’s point that AWS took from 2003 to 2015 and $29.7 billion of inflation adjusted CapEx to turn its first profit is right. The lesson is just the opposite of the one he draws from it. AWS is now a $169 billion run rate business with a 39% operating margin and a $496 billion backlog. That might be the best return on CapEx in the history of the S&P 500. Jassy said the margins and returns in AI are tracking what AWS saw in core cloud at the same stage and I don’t have a reason to doubt him yet. The strongest part of Ed’s case is private credit and I’m not going to wave it away. Private credit, insurance balance sheets and pension money are funding data center developers and neoclouds at rates that assume the tenants pay for a decade. If a tenant walks there’s no Google search business sitting behind that debt. Two things keep it from being 2008. The tenants on the biggest leases are Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta and Oracle. The hyperscalers fund the majority of their CapEx from operating cash flow and investment grade bonds. The risk sits with the developers and the single tenant projects. Oracle is the one big balance sheet where that risk is concentrated and I own it knowing that. The right takeaway isn’t to sell Nvidia. It’s to know which companies are the tenants and which are the landlords and to never confuse an 11% CoreWeave coupon with a 4.5% Amazon coupon. On retail leverage Ed is just right. FINRA margin debt hit a record $1.5 trillion in June and it’s still up about 39% YoY even after falling to $1.42 trillion in July. I respect that number. It’s a market risk though and not an AI thesis. Leverage tells you the next drawdown is going to be violent. It doesn’t tell you whether Azure grows 45% next quarter. So where does that leave us. Ed is right that OpenAI loses a lot of money, that Oracle and CoreWeave are levered, that memory costs are rising, that construction runs late and that retail is over leveraged. He’s wrong that the demand is illusory, wrong that Microsoft can’t sell AI to anyone but OpenAI, wrong on the direction of the Meta and Anthropic deal, wrong that the agencies won’t downgrade, wrong that nobody can make this profitable and wrong about what Nvidia’s 10-Q actually says about receivables and prepayments. Most of all he’s unfalsifiable. He was wrong in 2024, he was wrong in 2025 and his response was to stop making predictions and keep the thesis anyway. The full video will be dropping tomorrow on my responses to Ed's 37 claims and even though he has blocked me he is still welcome to come on @basispointpod with @amitisinvesting and Myself.

Noisy opinions sell… Zeta Global $18 = “scam” Palantir $100 = “scam” Shopify $97 = “scam” In reality, those nosy opinions made for fruitful opportunities. $ZETA

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nvidia $NVDA reported Q2’27 revenue of $96.2B, beating estimates of $92.2B and up 106% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.22 versus $2.10 expected, up 120% YoY. Data Center revenue reached $89.0B, above the $85.8B estimate and up 117% YoY, while adjusted gross margin was 75.0%, in line with expectations and up 250 bps YoY. Nvidia guided Q3 revenue to $108.0B +/- 2%, ahead of the $104.2B estimate, with adjusted gross margin expected at 74.0% +/- 50 bps. The company generated $64.0B of adjusted operating income, $54.0B of adjusted net income, and $21.3B of free cash flow, while returning roughly $26.0B to shareholders in Q2 with about $99.0B remaining on its authorization. Nvidia said its outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, while Vera Rubin is ramping into full production with racks running at partners. 2. US GDP came in at 1.5% QoQ, matching estimates. PCE rose 0.2% MoM versus 0.1% expected and 3.7% YoY versus 3.6% expected, while Core PCE was in line at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY. Consumer spending increased 0.2% MoM, above the 0.1% estimate, and personal income rose 0.4% MoM, ahead of the 0.2% estimate. Real personal consumption was flat at 0.0% MoM, matching expectations. 3. Meta $META agreed to an $18B youth safety commitment as part of its settlement with U.S. states, including $17B tied to broader settlement terms and $2.2B payable to California. Under the deal, Meta will spend the money over 10 years on youth online safety initiatives and implement new protections for users under 18, including limiting social media use to 2 hours per day and blocking access from 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. Compliance will be monitored by an independent auditor for 5 years. Meta will accrue about $10B in legal expenses in Q3 2026, but says its July financial guidance remains unchanged. The company also said $5.3B of the settlement is tied to YouTube and TikTok implementing similar daily limits, night mode, and age assurance measures. 4. The Bank of Korea raised rates by 25 bps to 3.00%, marking its second straight hike and the first back-to-back rate increases since the COVID era. The central bank also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, signaling stronger confidence in the economy even as it tightens policy. 5. Nvidia $NVDA has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9B, according to The Information. Strategically, this would give Nvidia a much deeper foothold in the open-source AI ecosystem, where Hugging Face has become one of the main distribution layers for models, datasets, and developer workflows. The likely goal is not just owning another AI asset, but controlling more of the software layer around AI adoption: GPUs, networking, CUDA, inference infrastructure, and now a major platform where developers actually build, share, and deploy models. For Nvidia, this makes the ecosystem stickier and strengthens its position as AI shifts from training frontier models to deploying millions of inference workloads across enterprises. 6. U.S. new home sales fell 10.5% MoM in July to 607,000 units, the lowest level in 6 months and far worse than the 1.4% decline expected. Excluding January 2026, this was the weakest reading since November 2022. New home sales have now declined in 3 of the last 4 months and are down 6.3% YoY. The Midwest saw the sharpest drop, with sales plunging 42.7% MoM to 43,000, the lowest level since 2012. Sales in the South, the largest homebuying region at more than 60% of total sales, fell 13.0% to 383,000, the second-lowest level since January. The weakness comes as the 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.81%, its highest since August 2025, continuing to pressure homebuyer demand. 7. An IRGC spokesperson said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the U.S. accepts Iran’s conditions. Those conditions reportedly include foreign warships staying at least 400 km away and no vessel transiting the Strait without Iran’s permission. The IRGC also said Iran and Oman have agreed to share revenue from shipping through the Strait, adding another layer of geopolitical and energy-market risk around one of the world’s most important chokepoints. 8. CrowdStrike $CRWD reported Q2’27 revenue of $1.47B, beating estimates of $1.44B and up 26% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.31 versus $0.29 expected, up 35% YoY, while free cash flow reached $377.4M, above the $353M estimate and up 33% YoY. Net new ARR hit a record $333M, up 51% YoY, bringing total ARR to $5.84B, up 25% YoY. CrowdStrike raised FY27 guidance to $5.99B–$6.01B in revenue, $1.25–$1.26 in adjusted EPS, and $6.60B–$6.61B in ARR. Management called Q2 the best quarter in company history, citing record Falcon Flex results, record net new ARR, stronger retention, and a Mythos-driven tailwind as AI adoption increasingly needs security at scale. $CRWD was up 10% after hours. 9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 2.7M contracts, $NVDA with 2.5M contracts, $META with 1.7M contracts, $AAPL with 1.4M contracts, $INTC with 742K contracts, $AMZN with 695K contracts, $SPCX with 603K contracts, $MU with 595K contracts, $MSFT with 579K contracts, and $AMD with 404K contracts. 10. $NVDA Nvidia's CFO today said revenue is expected to grow approximately 70% in FY28, even with a supply-constrained outlook. The company said Vera CPU is now in full production, shipments are already underway to lead partners, and CPU revenue is expected to more than double in FY28 against roughly $20B of total server CPU demand. Nvidia also said it began production shipments of Vera Rubin earlier this month, while neocloud partners are expected to exit the year with 8 GW of installed capacity, up from roughly 3 GW at the end of 2025. The CFO said cloud industry backlog now exceeds $2T, with capex from the top five hyperscalers expected to reach nearly $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027. Nvidia also addressed “circular financing,” saying it has invested nearly $50B in frontier AI labs and expects AI lab demand supported by its balance sheet to contribute roughly 25% of the business next year. 11. Google $GOOGL has reportedly hired Barret Zoph, co-founder and former CTO of Thinking Machines Lab, as VP of Research, according to WSJ. Zoph will work on Gemini, bringing expertise in reinforcement learning and post-training. Separately, SoftBank is reportedly in talks to acquire a majority stake in OpenAI-backed humanoid robot maker 1X at roughly a $6B valuation. 1X previously tried to raise $1B at a $10B valuation but raised less than half that target, while OpenAI also discussed acquiring the company last year before talks fell apart. 1X says it received more than 10,000 pre-orders for its $20,000 NEO humanoid in the first week, with deliveries planned for 2026, though none have been delivered yet. 12. AWS $AMZN and Nvidia $NVDA announced a major expansion of their strategic AI infrastructure partnership, building on 16 years of joint innovation. As part of the expanded collaboration, AWS will deploy 2 million additional Nvidia GPUs across its global infrastructure in 2027–2028. The companies said they are deepening their work across AI factories, CPUs, networking, open models, data processing, and robotics, giving customers more ways to build and deploy AI at scale. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$NVDA !!!!! NVIDIA Q2 2026 EARNINGS: - Revenue $96.2B +106% YoY - Data Center Revenue $89.0B +117% YoY - GAAP EPS $2.46 +128% YoY - GAAP Operating Income $63.7B +124% YoY - GAAP Gross Margin 75.0% - Returned $26B to Shareholders in Q2 - Q3 Revenue Guidance of $108B NVIDIA just doubled revenue at a nearly $100B quarterly run rate. It is the largest company in history to put up these numbers at this size. CEO Jensen Huang: “AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue. And demand is accelerating. This time last year, one lab alone was driving the buildout; today, we have a golden age of new AI labs and startups, multiple frontier labs scaling in parallel, a thriving open-model ecosystem and physical AI coming online — with strong momentum across the U.S. and around the world. The AI infrastructure buildout is at full steam. Vera Rubin, now in full production, was built to power exactly this moment.” LETS. GO.