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The companies racing to build the most powerful AI are also asking governments to regulate it.
That can be a genuine safety concern. It can also become a moat.
Once rules decide who can enter the market, when models can ship, and how expensive compliance is, the burden does not fall evenly. Incumbents can absorb legal teams, audits and delayed launches. Smaller challengers often cannot.
Delay the next model and the cash still burns. Data centres, chipmakers, power producers, private credit and a large slice of the S&P are all priced for AI revenue arriving on schedule.
Safety may be the reason for the rules. The rules still reshape the market.
The next AI moat may not be the model. It may be the rulebook.
Episode 4 of The Hidden Economy:
piped.video/watch?v=SwgK5lcV…
Who actually pays for AI regulation? Your take 👇
Like & RT if this lands. Follow for the next essay.
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Megacaps and Semis have led the rally off the Fed Day low.
If we’re going to see acceptance into the upper bounds of this range, some rotation and broader participation beyond the leaders would be a healthy signal.
The market has given up: there is no more breadth - 9th day in a row of more 52 week lows than highs
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$MAGS Final weekly candle considerably stronger than what we were observing mid week.
Perhaps into end of month we see a test of $74 and the 1.272 fib extension.
Mag7 cohort are showing their first signs of potential buyer exhaustion since May.
With 2 days left in the weekly candle, the $MAGS flirted with its 1.272 extension, but now printing a bit of a topping tail.
Worth noting: in the prior instance, 100 Stoch RSI remained embedded for 4 weeks while the topping process played out. So nothing says equities have to collapse. Just monitoring for now with modest allocations to single name longs, and index hedges short. NFA
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$SPX weekly candle closed above the local .786, printing an initial confirmation of last week’s reversal off the FOMC low.
The daily candle also offers an initial confirmation of Thursday’s reversal off the 7660 backtest.
While 5 trading days does not make a trend, it’s worth recognizing just how little fade we saw from Monday’s squeeze candle into the final weekly print.
So far, Monday’s bid looks like follow through.
Unless we see a substantial intraday fade, this move in $SPX has the look of rally toward new highs.
This would imply in my opinion that the Fed day sell candle and subsequent test of 7500 marked our completed 3-legged correction.
That would materially reduce the likelihood of a deeper equity correction before the midterms.
Will be watching price action in the late session, and for Tuesday confirming candle.
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Timed news evaporates -2.5% from Brent Crude $WTI.
Equities add roughly +0.5% to their morning rally.
Now the question is whether this move has staying power—or fades into the weekly close.
Iran-US Talks Enter Technical Stage, Al-Jazeera Journalist Reports – CBS
cbsnews.com/live-updates/ira…
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Need to see a surprise bid for metals into the late session, otherwise gold risks losing the $4,300 volume shelf on the weekly.
Current price action still looks suggestive of another leg lower, with $4,100 remaining the key area to test whether support is actually there.
Dollar up (DXY teasing 101), gold down -1.5% overnight.
If gold revisits the Fed Day wick low, my confidence will swell that the $4,100 target we’ve been calling for will ultimately be offered.
#GoldSignals
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$WTI rejecting pretty aggressively from the $99 resistance level.
well #TimedNews
US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.
The strait has become the central bargaining chip in efforts to end the nearly seven-month US-lran conflict, with Iran seeking relief from the US blockade that is choking its economy and Washington seeking free passage for ships on the global oil supply route now blocked by Tehran.
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$WTI is working on a second consecutive green candle and is now +6% off the $92 area we suspected could provide an initial relief bounce.
Axios reports Tehran put a one-week timeline on the table in indirect New York talks: meet its demands and the Strait of Hormuz reopens. U.S. negotiators reportedly rejected the proposal.
First logical overhead resistance is $99.
$WTI continues to hold above our $92 level overnight.
Another reported vessel strike in the Strait of Hormuz—with 2 casualties—adds fresh geopolitical risk back into the equation.
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blockproof.macro retweeted
There won't be QE with yields this high. It is a zero bound policy. What is more likely, I wager, is increasing measures to have banks and institutions hold more bonds. First thru incentives, then regulatory changes, and eventually compulsion at below market yields.
The higher the yield on the 10 year goes, the more likely some form of QE will be undertaken.
I don't know why this is hard to understand, but that would be EXTREMELY constructive for scarce assets like Gold and Bitcoin...
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Mag7 cohort are showing their first signs of potential buyer exhaustion since May.
With 2 days left in the weekly candle, the $MAGS flirted with its 1.272 extension, but now printing a bit of a topping tail.
Worth noting: in the prior instance, 100 Stoch RSI remained embedded for 4 weeks while the topping process played out. So nothing says equities have to collapse. Just monitoring for now with modest allocations to single name longs, and index hedges short. NFA
Huge move in US equities Monday as the mega caps squeeze higher.
All of the lower-timeframe bearish divergence for $MAGS has been vaporized.
Reenforcing one of our observations from this summer, the Mag7 continues to telegraph broader market direction.
Join me on Youtube 15 minutes after the close and we’ll reflect live on today’s price action across Equities, Oil & Monetary Metals. 👀
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Just as Oil and Equity indices work through key support/resistance zones, $TOTAL is facing its first test of $2.9T resistance.
Four more days until the weekly close.
A weekly candle body above could open the door for broad risk-on momentum.
But with weekly stoch rsi already elevated, this may be a logical spot for $BTC & #Crypto to potentially correct.
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blockproof.macro retweeted
“I don’t think you will see a blanket ban on diesel” — @SecretaryWright
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Dollar up (DXY teasing 101), gold down -1.5% overnight.
If gold revisits the Fed Day wick low, my confidence will swell that the $4,100 target we’ve been calling for will ultimately be offered.
#GoldSignals
US equity markets are ripping in Monday’s early session.
Interesting to see gold down -0.5% relative to Friday’s close. The local follow through from last week’s rejection at $4,400 continues to support the idea that gold may need to come in a bit further.
Still watching for that potential move toward $4,100.
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$WTI continues to hold above our $92 level overnight.
Another reported vessel strike in the Strait of Hormuz—with 2 casualties—adds fresh geopolitical risk back into the equation.
$WTI has now tested my $92 level of interest.
Regardless of whether the higher timeframe oil structure remains bullish, this feels like a reasonable spot for an initial relief bounce after the -12% knockback.
Watching to see what kind of structure develops from here.
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$WTI has now tested my $92 level of interest.
Regardless of whether the higher timeframe oil structure remains bullish, this feels like a reasonable spot for an initial relief bounce after the -12% knockback.
Watching to see what kind of structure develops from here.
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Huge move in US equities Monday as the mega caps squeeze higher.
All of the lower-timeframe bearish divergence for $MAGS has been vaporized.
Reenforcing one of our observations from this summer, the Mag7 continues to telegraph broader market direction.
Join me on Youtube 15 minutes after the close and we’ll reflect live on today’s price action across Equities, Oil & Monetary Metals. 👀
Add $MAGS to the list of cross asset mixed signals.
After being one of the most bullish equity charts through the first half of September, the Mag7 tagged ATH before fading the entirety of Friday’s session.
Weekly structure still looks plenty constructive, but I’ll be watching the lower timeframes closely.
4H bearish divergence possibly hinting at some buyer exhaustion into quarterly OpEx?
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So far, Monday’s bid looks like follow through.
Unless we see a substantial intraday fade, this move in $SPX has the look of rally toward new highs.
This would imply in my opinion that the Fed day sell candle and subsequent test of 7500 marked our completed 3-legged correction.
That would materially reduce the likelihood of a deeper equity correction before the midterms.
Will be watching price action in the late session, and for Tuesday confirming candle.
no great surprise, 7500 $SPX provided an automatic rally point for markets.
Next, I allow price behavior into the 7680–7700 zone to inform my near-term bias.
A clean clearance of these local retrace fibs would suggest the late August/early September structure was a 3-legged countertrend move. And with that corrective now complete, the S&P 500 would logically impulse higher in bull-trend continuation.
*Path visualized by green arrow.
Rejection at the local .618, however, reinforces my alternate interpretation: being that the September measured move to 1.618 was good for wave 3 of a yet to be completed 5-wave impulse. If the latter, then trajectory for $SPX is an imminent leg lower.
*Path visualized by red arrow.
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