ok, my monthly VC/LP debrief is here.
10 things I've found interesting in Sep '26:
1/ a historic liquidity wave may finally break the VC driven by active AI M&A (e.g. Cursor at $60B, Hugging Face at $12.9B) and a massive IPO pipeline. just 3 companies (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX) could represent ~$5T in aggregate EV at IPO, so if VCs retain 40-50% equity, that translates to $2–2.5T in fund-attributable value which is roughly 20-25x the actual LP liquidity generated across all of 2022–2024. (h/t
@samirkaji)
2/ $50B+ VC-backed IPOs, the aggregate IRR since day 1 sits at -4% annually, compared to an 18% annual return for the QQQ over the same periods, so holding companies private longer at inflated valuations forces one-dimensional growth that public markets heavily punish once cash flows are scrutinized. (h/t
@Curiousjorge65)
3/ median Series A checks skyrocketed from $4.5M a decade ago to $19.4M today, causing the number of funds sized to lead them to collapse from 200 to just 50. this has squeezed out mid-tier startups ($3-5M ARR growing 3-5x) while forcing Series A investors to fund only two extremes: highly quantitative 10x growers or early-stage, massive AI/ambition narratives. (h/t
@jaydimonte)
4/
@a16z published a chart arguing that 5% of VC investors generate 90% of returns, concluding LPs should concentrate capital in mega funds. the underlying NBER study measures profit dollars from individuals (not fund-level returns), so a $5M fund returning 39x ranks below a $1B fund returning 1.2x by this metric.
5/ per commonplace research: LP appetite for alternatives has reached a 5-year high, with 63% planning to increase allocations over the next 12 months (vs 54% in 2025). rather than pulling back amid market uncertainty, allocators are doubling down on control and economics: co-investment participation surged to a record 64%, while capital is aggressively concentrating in North America (53% of deployment interest).
6/ as large VC funds have grown more common, the typical number of LPs contributing to each fund has declined. in the first half of 2026, the median fund between $100M and $250M had 44 different LPs. in 2025, the median fund of that size had 59 LPs. over the past four years, median LP count for these nine-figure funds is down 45%. (h/t
@cartainc)
7/ the fund of funds most likely to anchor an emerging manager's Fund I is about as young as the fund itself. across 49 FoFs actively backing EMs, more than 60% (30 funds) were launched in 2020 or later, and 28 of those 30 are dedicated EM specialists. established institutional allocators remain largely sidelined, leaving first-time GPs to build their early LP bases alongside a "new guard" of FoFs. (h/t
@murphcapital)
8/ LPs are simultaneously forced to make re-ups into mega-funds while tracking the market's largest platforms. even when an LP has genuine interest in emerging managers, their attention, IC bandwidth, and available risk budget are limited which means a good GP may not get a meeting bc it isn't explained quickly and "clearly enough". (h/t
@jeff)
9/ as a fund becomes more lead/co-lead oriented, its relationships with other investors change. people who were once natural collaborators can become direct competitors for lead allocation, which isn't necessarily bad, but it changes the sourcing economics. an access investor sees almost every deal bc they're not perceived as a threat to control or ownership, but once a fund wants to take 10%+ and lead the round, some of the network goodwill it previously had becomes less available. (h/t
@jmj)
10/ more LPs are demanding "upfront fees only, zero carry" on SPVs and co-investments. while counterintuitive (paying 5% upfront regardless of deal outcome) the math works heavily in the LP's favor on big winners: on a $2M co-invest with a 3x return, a 5% upfront fee costs $100K versus $800K under a traditional 20% carry structure, saving $700K. (h/t
@samhuleatt)
we're monitoring the situation in VC/LP world in
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