GMU econ prof, NYT bestseller, father of 4, author of Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, Case Against Education, Open Borders, & BBB

Oakton, Virginia
Buy my new *You Have No Right to Your Culture*, now on sale! Order here: amzn.to/3L6Ff6s
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Bryan Caplan retweeted
After I published my article on Korean adoptees today, a professor at an R1 university wrote to me: "It's a pity I can't assign this in one of my quantitative methods classes." I got his point, but asked what exactly was stopping him. He wrote the following: "In one sense, nothing. I have tenure and academic freedom and I don't think I would face the kind of Amy Wax style retaliation that FIRE could sue over. But there would be consequences. The most immediate would be that I would no longer teach or advise grad students – and not because the department chair was punishing me but because students would refuse to take my classes or have me on their dissertation committees. But the more important thing is reserving my credibility for when it is most likely to be effective. You want people to take you seriously when you speak in a faculty meeting or advocate a policy at your university or in your discipline. This isn't careerism, it's about strategic understanding of picking battles to have the most impact, especially given that I am not teaching about inequality and there are other ways to teach the auxiliary hypothesis problem that would be much more effective because they wouldn't make students too upset to appreciate the methodological point." Good demonstration of how academic pressure comes from below. You can have all the free speech protections you want, and maybe you won't be disciplined or fired, but no law or regulation can stop students from refusing to take your classes, other academics from not wanting to write papers with you, etc.
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Everyone should read these international adoption papers. Normies have to accept that genes are a major cause of international IQ differences. Race realists have to accept that environment is ALSO a major cause of international IQ differences.
Between 1958 and 1990, 20% of the children Korea sent abroad for adoption were classified as special needs or disabled, compared to less than 0.1% of those adopted domestically. In 1976, Korea even came up with a plan to phase out international adoption, making an exception for only mixed-race and handicapped children. They eventually walked this back, but it shows how, according to one scholar, "South Korea’s private adoption industry functioned as a replacement for the nation’s social welfare system.” Yet, when scholars eventually studied the outcomes for Koreans adopted abroad, they found that they did cognitively and academically better than natives in Sweden and the Netherlands. It's one of the great mysteries of social science, which I write about here. richardhanania.com/p/were-19…
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"One of Robert Lucas’ most notable insights is that human capital (unlike, say, oil) moves from where it is scarce to where it is plentiful." betonit.ai/p/lucas_meets_gog…
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Bryan Caplan retweeted
What is a probability that Trump actually orders indiscriminate attacks on Iran that lead to the deaths of >100K Iranian civilians?
42% 0-1%
28% 2-5%
20% 6-15%
10% 16-100%
642 votes • Final results
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Pretty good.
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Bryan Caplan retweeted
Very good discussion of an obscure yet thought-provoking passage from Arthur Jensen.
Since people are talking about the meaning and implications of extremely low IQs, I'll add something I think everyone should understand: an IQ of 70 is used to indicate* mental retardation because of what it tends to be caused by in certain populations. This is a roundabout way of saying that a low IQ indicates mental retardation because of what it means for a person's behavior, which, I'll explain, covaries with its causes. IQs are mostly normally distributed, and IQs represent the influences of multiple different constructs and causes, but they primarily reflect differences in general intelligence. But there's a major deviation from normality at the lower-end of the scale. If you sample well enough, you'll see something like this: The reason is that there are the normal-range causes that produce the normal distribution, and then there are extreme circumstances that produce extraordinarily low IQs. Contrarily, we don't know of anything that produces abnormally high IQs. There's no known one-off mutation that makes someone a genius, but there are many mutations that we now know can make a person extremely unintelligent. Consider this diagram from a recent paper by @AlexTISYoung: A few very rare protein-truncating variants have enormous negative effects on a person's educational attainment! But nothing we know of has enormous positive effects. As the saying goes, it's far easier to break a machine than to throw a wrench in it and make it work. And that makes sense! Your wrench in the gears is likely to break something, not increase efficiency by 50%. If you hit someone in the head hard enough, you can reduce their IQ score, but not in a million years will you turn them into von Neumann. The reason someone's IQ drops after you bludgeon them is more singular and specific than the reasons IQ varies in the general population. A hit to the noggin may leave someone unable to flex their short-term memory, even if their visuospatial rotation capabilities are unaffected. There's some degree of isolation of function and compensation for deficits in the brain. We know this thanks to many observations, like on the effects of neural lesions (I'll link something fun on this topic with the sources at the end). When we say that someone with an IQ of ≤70 is mentally retarded**, we're saying that they lack adaptive behavior—that they're not very bright, and so it makes living life hard. But if a population legitimately has a mean IQ of 70 (and some do!), we'll notice that they're not drooling troglodytes who can't put on their shoes. This is because the reasons for their low IQ are not things that cause specific and extreme deficits, but instead, things that cause normal-range variation, which is far less severe in nature. One of the ways we know IQ is normally distributed is also a way that we know different causes are at work in certain cases of intellectual disability: sibling comparisons! In large Israeli (B) and Swedish (A) datasets, we can see that when a person has a mild intellectual disability, their sibling tends to be less intelligent too. You also see this for heights, autism, or any other highly polygenic trait. But when a sibling has severe—AKA, "idiopathic"—intellectual disability, the distribution of their sibling's IQs is the same as the distribution for the general population. The deficits in adaptive behavior that result from idiopathic intellectual disability are ones that often make life hard to live in discrete and extreme ways. In some cases, you wouldn't even recognize them as being "retarded" because they have conditions like amnesia, where the person is clearly odd and unfortunate, and they score poorly on an IQ test, but they might sound totally coherent otherwise. Normal-range causes lead to linear changes in adaptive behavior; idiopathic mental retardation, leads to a discontinuous decrease in adaptive behavior. Accordingly, an IQ of 70 does not have the same meaning for members of different groups, since if a group with a mean IQ of 70 randomly pulls a person with an IQ of 70, they aren't likely to score like someone who's mentally retarded for idiopathic reasons. Jensen, incidentally, predicted this sort of result based on some observations he made as an educator. "My student said he was looking for a good culture-free or culture-fair test of intelligence and had not been able to find one. All the tests he used, whether they were claimed to be culture-fair or not, were in considerable agreement with respect to children diagnosed as educationally mentally retarded (EMR), by which they were assigned to special small classes offering a different instructional program from that in the regular classes. To qualify for this special treatment, children had to have IQs below 75 as well as lagging far behind their age-mates in scholastic performance. My student, who had examined many of these backward pupils himself, had gained the impression that the tests were quite valid in their assessments of white middle-class children but not of minority lower-class children. "Many of the latter, despite IQs below 75 and markedly poor scholastic performance, did not seem nearly as retarded as the white middle-class children with comparable IQs and scholastic records. Middle-class white children with IQs in the EMR range generally appeared more retarded than the minority children who were in special classes. Using nonverbal rather than verbal tests did not appreciably alter the problem. I confirmed my students observations for myself by observing EMR children in their classes and on the playground and by discussing their characteristics with a number of teachers and school psychologists. My student’s observations proved reliable. "EMR children who were called ‘culturally disadvantaged’, as contrasted with middle-class EMR children, appeared much brighter socially and on the playground, often being quite indistinguishable in every way from children of normal IQ except in their scholastic performance and in their scores on a variety of standard IQ tests. Middle-class white children diagnosed as EMR, on the other hand, though they constituted a much smaller percentage of the EMR classes, usually appeared to be more mentally retarded all round and not just in their performance in scholastic subjects and IQ tests. I asked myself, how could one devise a testing procedure that would reveal this distinction so that it could be brought under closer study and not depend upon casual observations and impressions." The distinction between types of mental retardation that are demarcated by their symptoms and, thus, by their causes, is important to understand. It's why an IQ of 70 for a Japanese person is likely to indicate an extraordinarily severe issue in need of attention, while for a Bushman, they won't have any trouble surviving. A low normal-range IQ score is bad, but depending on its causes, it's likely to come with different symptoms that make it more or less bad. Final note: this does have implications for the use of IQ as a means of mitigating the punishment of serious criminals on death row. Sources: sciencedirect.com/science/ar… sciencedirect.com/science/ar… pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pna… emilkirkegaard.com/p/african… * Indicate, not diagnose. ** This is not how mental retardation is actually diagnosed, despite popular misconception.
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Bryan Caplan retweeted
Just finished reading. Great book by @bryan_caplan @Rerazer should check it out. It's definitely better than Batman
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Bryan Caplan retweeted
Replying to @bryan_caplan
Even "principled" Cato interns were resistant to open borders when I was there and they struggled to explain their views. Fear of the OTHER is so primal that people often don't even know why they oppose immigration.
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Bryan Caplan retweeted
Don't believe the propaganda on MAID. In 2021, the average recipient was 76.3 years old. Almost two-thirds had cancer, 19% had cardiovascular conditions, 12% had neurological conditions and 8% had organ failure. This is a humane, rational program that is working about as well as any government program can possibly work. People hate it for religious reasons, and want to force others to suffer indefinitely for no good reason. Opposition to MAID is evil. richardhanania.com/p/canadia…
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Speaking at @UVA today. Who's around?
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"Monopsony allows firms to realize economies of scale; economies of scale raise worker productivity; and higher worker productivity allows better pay and working conditions." betonit.ai/p/firm-functional…
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"Most of these accusations casually assume away crucial constraints.  Once you take these constraints seriously, the performance of the business world is objectively outstanding." betonit.ai/p/firm-functional…
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Immigrants assimilate so well that by the second-generation they're already nativists.
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Bryan Caplan retweeted
I don't know whether Clavicular is guilty of the charges against him. But women who stay in contact with their alleged "rapists" do not deserve sympathy. They make life harder for both rape victims and men who need to defend against false allegations. richardhanania.com/p/women-w…
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Bryan Caplan retweeted
I’m going to be on Rising this morning to talk about this article on climate change being the world’s most overrated problem. Come join us, but read the article first. richardhanania.com/p/climate…
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"Since 1980, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama had general charisma. Trump has partisan charisma only. The last election where both parties had a charismatic candidate was 1964, where Johnson (general charisma) clobbered Goldwater (partisan charisma only)." betonit.ai/p/the-neo-median-…
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"The traditional Median Voter Model’s central erroneous prediction is platform convergence. In the Neo-Median Voter Model, platforms diverge widely, especially on issues where the base is passionate and the median voter in the general election is apathetic. And it’s amazing how many issues most people are apathetic about." betonit.ai/p/the-neo-median-…
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