Neoclouds are expected to reach $400B in revenue by 2031 (I still think this is TOO LOW)
These companies are growing MCUH FASTER than AWS, Azure and Google Cloud
Why? The demand for AI compute is next to infinite and neoclouds offer the best product to serve it
My guess: these estimates are way too low and the real number lands much closer to $1 TRILLION by 2031. Here's the case (save this)
Firstly, the reason I say this is that Anthropic committed $80 BILLION to neocloud compute in the span of two weeks: $45B to Nscale, $35B to Lambda
Why? Because the frontier labs literally cannot get enough compute from Amazon, Microsoft and Google. The hyperscalers are sold out of the kind of capacity AI needs, so the labs are contracting YEARS of neocloud supply in advance
That's what makes this growth different from normal tech growth. It's not marketing-driven, it's shortage-driven
The structural reason demand lands here: AI training runs occupy thousands of GPUs in lockstep for weeks and push rack power from 10-15 kilowatts to 40-250 kilowatts. The hyperscaler cloud was never built for that. Neoclouds were built for ONLY that, which is why their GPU hours run 50-70% below hyperscaler list prices and why Nvidia feeds them chips and capital first (it's an investor in CoreWeave, Nebius, Lambda and Nscale)
And here's why I think $400B is too low: every demand forecast this cycle has been revised UP, not down. CoreWeave's backlog alone grew $25B in six weeks. If token demand keeps doubling the way it has been, the 2031 number will be much higher (assuming they can keep up with demand)
Speaking of keeping up with demand, this is where I think SpaceX will become the largest neocloud on Earth and will be the reason these numbers can reach $1 Trillion in revenue by 2031
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