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your next big trade is here
We're on a mission to help you break away from chasing the markets around, week after week, following the FinTwit crowd into overhyped stocks. Here's how we'll help: Start your Monday mornings with our State of the Market report, followed by our live Market Blueprint webinar. Learn how to view the market through our top-down framework, focusing on the things that push the markets up or down so that you know whether to be buying. selling, defending, or waiting. On Wednesdays, join us for our Execution Report webinar and learn how to pick winning stocks through our bottom-up framework. Learn how to find the strongest stocks, set up the trades for big wins, and take them live with the community. On Fridays, we go live for our Academy webinar.. focused on community questions, educational frameworks, live chart requests, trade updates and more. This is an opportunity to build your trading process out specific to you. Every morning we trade live in Discord with over 100 other TTI traders. And every night I write a Desk Note covering the days action and what to look for the next day. All of this is supported by our TTI Trade Desk software.. an all-in-one platform that links together the entire trade process: 1. Build the bigger picture using our Market Desk 2. Identify new opportunity using our institutional ETF fund flow aggregator the Flow Desk 3. Scan the market to find the best possible trades focused on repeatable setups, strength, and momentum using our TTI Scanner 4. Build the trades using our Daily Ideas Desk. 5. Take the trades with us live in Discord + webinars 6. Learn how we manage the trades live using our Trade Feed. If you’re ready to step away from the hamster wheel of chasing stocks that FInTwit spams all day, join TTI. I guarantee we will change the way you view markets forever. thetradinginitiative.com/che…
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Multi-decade highs in rates. Breadth in the shitter. Oracle's data center buildout is at risk. And yet $ARKK just closed at 4-year highs. You get to choose what you focus on. If you're here to make money (instead of argue with people).. I suggest finding the new leaders.
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A lot of loud bears this week. Double top via $QQQ sure was scary. But how does that work with tech $XLK closing at all-time highs this week? Not just the biggest tech stocks either. $RSPT is also at all-time highs. Enjoy your weekend, bears.
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Oracle $ORCL declaring a force majeure notice and the market NOT dying was an important caveat to this whole “bull market is over” narrative!!! The market had every opportunity yesterday to get destroyed. It did not. Trade accordingly!!
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Most traders are doing this backwards. They find a random stock on FinTwit, check if it looks cool, then buy it hoping for the best. I did that for years.. back when mIRC was still a thing. Lost more money than I care to admit. Then I figured out something stupidly simple that changed everything. You need three things before you ever risk a dollar: 1. Trend - Is price actually moving in the direction you want? 2. Relative Strength - Is this stock beating everything else you could buy? 3. Momentum - Is it accelerating or slowing down? That's it. For trend, I just want price above the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages. All three sloping up. Yeah, the slope thing from 8th grade math actually matters. Upward sloping moving averages tell you the trend has durability. For relative strength, I compare the stock against the market, its sector, its industry, and its top peers. If it's not beating all of them, I don't want it. Why would I buy something underperforming when I could buy the actual leader? For momentum, I need to see acceleration. The fastest horse in the race. A Lamborghini on empty doesn't win anything no matter how good it looks. Here's how it actually works out: We bought $RNG at 46.50 using this exact process. It's up over 70% now. Four year base breakout, stacked moving averages, leading software and tech, momentum firing on all cylinders. Here's the tweet from the day it broke out: nitter.net/capitalflows/status/20… Not every trade works. But the ones that do pay for the losers ten times over. The hard part isn't finding one winner. It's building a system you can repeat forever. That's what separates people who get lucky once from people who actually make money long-term. What's your process for finding stocks? Do you even have one or are you just winging it?
Beauty of a base breakout in RingCentral $RNG 4 year highs, post earnings
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If you want the exact system I use to find these setups every week, I break it down daily in TTI. You get: - Trade alerts when I spot setups like RNG - The full TTI scoring system - Weekly breakdowns of what's working (and what's not) - A lot more thetradinginitiative.com/che…
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S&P 500 is near all-time highs but sector correlation just hit 0.077.. lowest in 28 years. Translation: a few mega caps are doing all the heavy lifting while everything else drifts sideways or sells off. Great time to be a stock picker who focuses on relative strength.
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h/t: @MaxHornblower with the great chart
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The 40-year bond bull market is dead. I posted that over a year ago and it's more true now that it was then. I've been watching this shift for years now and it's saved me from opening deadweight trades in bonds.. we spent a decade at near-zero rates thinking that was the new normal. It wasn't. Rates are now trending higher.. this isn't some temporary blip. Here's what nobody wants to hear: this is a structural shift higher in global rates. It's not uniquely American. Almost all major countries are seeing an explosion in rates. And rates grinding higher for years isn't something that can magically be solved by the Treasury or the Fed. It's likely here to stay. That's a huge problem for traders and investors. Not because the market is going to immediately keel over and die. But because it represents an entirely new market environment that almost no one has experienced. Old correlations go out the window. New relationships take their place. And the market adapts to its new set of parameters. Think about it. An entire generation of investors and traders only knows falling rates. They've never had to navigate a secular bull market in rates. The playbook that worked for four decades is the exact wrong move now. The market is screaming this at us right now. We just have to listen. Are you positioned for a world where rates keep climbing or are you still betting on the old regime coming back?
The secular bull market in rates is here. After a decade long bottoming process that drove interest rates to near zero, the trend has finally turned higher. What does that mean? It means the bear market in bonds is not likely a short term event. It is a structural shift. As rates trend higher over the coming years, bond prices are likely to grind lower. Investors seeking refuge in the 60/40 portfolio split may find themselves fighting the wrong battle entirely. The market is telling us right now that the 40-year bond bull market is behind us.. And a new regime of rising rates is likely in front of us.
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Everyone freaks out when market breadth weakens. I get it. Less than 50% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average right now. That sounds scary.. especially on FinTwit where every other creator is forced to report the same headline. But here's what most people are missing while they panic: The Mag-7 are crushing it again. Both absolute and relative performance are strong with new highs on both. When the biggest companies in the world are leading the charge, weak breadth isn't the death sentence everyone thinks it is. Yeah.. 50% breadth is pretty weak. I'm not going to sugarcoat that. But it could also be signaling downside exhaustion, which is actually a decent sign if you think about it. The real test comes next. If the index rips higher without breadth improving, that tells us everything we need to know about who's really driving this market.. the largest stocks in the world. It's not a red flag. It's just concentration. The market doesn't need every single stock to participate for it to go up. It needs the right stocks to participate. So ask yourself: Are you going to sit on the sidelines worrying about breadth while the actual market leaders keep running? What's your take on this? Does narrow leadership concern you or are you going to focus on the winners right now?
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I built an AI hedge fund using Grok 4.7. Hedge funds are already doing this.. now you can too. I truly think this will be a part of everyones process soon. In this video I walk through how you can start setting up your own system to scan the market and find better trades:
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Strong stocks in weak sectors get crushed. Weak stocks in strong sectors outperform. The sector matters more than you think. Here's proof: A study by Thomas Bulkowski tracked thousands of trades and found that weak stocks in leading industries outperformed strong stocks in lagging industries. You can have the perfect chart. Perfect entry. Perfect risk management. But if you're trading a stock in a sector that's rotating out of favor, you're swimming upstream. The market doesn't care about your thesis. It cares about where capital is flowing. Right now tech is dominating our scanner. Seven of the top ten spots for the first time in months. Software showing up more than semis for the first time since Q2. And the crowd is still worried about everything else instead of the market that is screaming ROTATION right now. Stop picking stocks in isolation. Market → sector → industry → stock. That's the order. That's how you bag huge wins. If you can't tell me which sectors are leading and which are lagging, you're guessing. And the market will make you pay for it.
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The memory trade is heating back up and $DRAM is breaking out into 50-day highs. You can own the individual names.. $MU $SNDK $STX $WDC $SKHY etc but the options chain on DRAM is better than all of them and you remove individual company risk. I'm long above 61.00
Roundhill Memory ETF $DRAM holding $SNDK $WDC $MU blockstack:native $SKHY etc continuing to show strong etf outflows + big prints on calls into January That divergence = $$$ Bullish setup which takes out company-specific risk while capturing memory theme
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Went through a bunch of different highly correlated names within the crypto space. $ASST as a higher beta Bitcoin play makes sense above 31.65 -- momentum, trend, breakout and no overhead supply to fight through. At nearly 9% ADR this thing will fly.
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The Mag-7 stocks $MAGS are breaking out into new all-time highs after a year of consolidation. But more importantly -- they're working on breaking out against $SPY which shows just how strong this move is. My bet is this group leads through the end of the year. Why not?
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A winner is not always the right decision and a loser is not always a wrong decision. Annie Duke talks about this in Thinking in Bets - do not attribute the outcome of a decision with the quality of the decision making process. Case in point.. you have a decision to make between two stocks: - Stock A has an ADR of 2.5% - Stock B has an ADR of 5% Everything else is entirely the same. Same sector. Same industry. Same technical setup. Same amount of money risked. Everything is the same except beta. Which should you choose? The stock with the higher amount of volatility or the stock with the lower amount of volatility? One gives you more bang for your buck than the other. Meaning if you pile all of your money into Stock A.. and it rises 10% (or a 4xADR move) over the course of a month.. you're happy. But Stock B's equivalent move would see it rise 20% with a 4xADR move. That 10% spread between Stock A and Stock B is called opportunity cost. And you just paid it whether you know it or not. Now take it into the real world. $NVDA looks like its ready to break out into new all-time highs. But at a 5 trillion dollar market cap and a 2.57% ADR, is it the best way to express a bullish thesis in the AI-trade? In the tech trade? In the semiconductor trade? Probably not. There's a good chance that other names within the same group outperform it over the same timeframe: $AMD $MU $INTC etc. Making money =/= making the right decision. Something you will learn from someone who actually understands the cost of holding a trade that is underperforming against a basket of its peers. And at the end of the year, your PNL will reflect whether you held the best or were just happy to finally see green on a position. Obsessively focus on owning the best trading vehicles and leaders. OBSESS.
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Good chance $META leads the Mag-7 and market higher over the coming weeks. We went through all of the top 10 stocks last Monday during our Market Blueprint webinar and landed on META (and AAPL) as the two best positioned for leadership roles. Today's move in META gives a huge profit cushion to ride through the end of the year. Don't sell your biggest wins early!
The best looking Mag-7 right now is $META and it has nothing to do with Muse. It's less than 5% away from a 50-day high (only name closer is $AAPL). Price is trading on top of all three major moving averages (short/intermediate/long).. although they are not currently bullishly stacked due to trading within this range for almost 2 years. What really matters here is both the relative strength and the momentum. META is one of the largest components in the communications sector $XLC -- the leading sector this month. It's also outperforming every other Mag-7 stock other than $MSFT this quarter (+18.16%) + leading on the month (+16.29)%. It's clearly trading within one of the strongest sectors this quarter + it's a leader within the sector. Relative strength. RSI is trading within the beginnings of a bullish momentum regime and (oftentimes overlooked) the MACD is signaling an acceleration in momentum. You want to own the fastest horse in the race. It's META right now. A breakout above $675.00 puts this thing north of any significant overhead supply as indicated by the VRVP and path of least resistance flips higher. If you want to own the strongest, you need to understand how to find the strongest. And the balls to buy it. But yeah, Muse helps too.
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Top 10 stocks on our scanner tonight. First time since early June that tech had more than one or two.. and right now a majority of the list is tech. Some good names: $CRWD $OKTA $DELL $NET $TWLO $HPE $RVTY $ILMN $FTNT $VLO Software showing up big time..
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I post the same content on X as I do over on Substack and yet I'm growing a lot faster on Substack.. with way less reach. Going to be spending more time over there: thetradinginitiative.substac… to follow along!
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Mag-7 $MAGS as a group breaking out into all-time highs on an absolute basis and yearly highs on a relative basis. Best name continues to be $META +10.5% from this post. $AAPL looks good as well. Follow clean breakouts with little to no overhead supply to fight through.
The best looking Mag-7 right now is $META and it has nothing to do with Muse. It's less than 5% away from a 50-day high (only name closer is $AAPL). Price is trading on top of all three major moving averages (short/intermediate/long).. although they are not currently bullishly stacked due to trading within this range for almost 2 years. What really matters here is both the relative strength and the momentum. META is one of the largest components in the communications sector $XLC -- the leading sector this month. It's also outperforming every other Mag-7 stock other than $MSFT this quarter (+18.16%) + leading on the month (+16.29)%. It's clearly trading within one of the strongest sectors this quarter + it's a leader within the sector. Relative strength. RSI is trading within the beginnings of a bullish momentum regime and (oftentimes overlooked) the MACD is signaling an acceleration in momentum. You want to own the fastest horse in the race. It's META right now. A breakout above $675.00 puts this thing north of any significant overhead supply as indicated by the VRVP and path of least resistance flips higher. If you want to own the strongest, you need to understand how to find the strongest. And the balls to buy it. But yeah, Muse helps too.
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Flow bros treat huge SPY/QQQ inflows as automatic risk-on. They're wrong. For broad index ETFs like $SPY and $QQQ demand flow has historically lined up with worse adjusted returns. Crowding, chasing, FOMO.. not a free pass to YOLO. A quick thread.
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Reminds me of @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt's signature "don't trade, fade" concept. If you think the masses are asses and that crowding is bad for forward returns, big inflows into the indexes is an opportunity to avoid.. or fade! Full paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
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If you got value out of this etc etc follow me for more hot takes on why most people get this shit wrong. And subscribe to my substack where I post deeper dives and eventually try to get you to pay me and join TTI so you can learn this stuff and earn for yourself. TY
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