๐ For the first time in 45 weeks, Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average, finishing at $81.1K versus the SMA at roughly $78.8K.
Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital noted that across 13 previous bear-market recoveries to this level, only 2 were followed by new lows. In 4 of the past 5 cycles, Bitcoin had already formed its bottom by the time this breakout occurred, while 11 of the 13 cases ultimately led to a new high.
The 200-week SMA, where BTC spent roughly 80 days during the summer, also acted as major downside support and held.
โ ๏ธ Benjamin Cowen cautioned on September 21 that one weekly close above the 50-week SMA is not enough. The real test is whether Bitcoin can continue making higher highs and hold above the ~$78.8K level in the coming weeks.
If momentum fades, the broader bear-market structure could remain intact.
๐ Coin22 is similarly treating the move as a rebound within a larger correction. Without sustained ETF inflows and a meaningful shift in the macro backdrop, any local rally may remain temporary.