One day of early voting data should not be interpreted too heavily, especially in Ohio, and I probably would not post about it in this much detail if my findings did not differ from others. That said the data we have so far indicate that Day 1 of in-person early voting was, if anything, unusually strong for Democrats. That is especially notable because Ohio allows only one early-voting center per county, which tends to suppress in-person early turnout in the largest counties. Among the 25 largest counties for which we have data, Democrats had a higher turnout rate than Republicans in every one. Statewide, that was also true in all but one county out of 75 we have data for (Noble). Although IPEV in urban Ohio is historically abnormally blue compared to other areas of the country, this pattern across the state isn't as normal: there are many counties where the 2024 in-person early vote was deeply Republican, but where Democrats led turnout yesterday. The takeaway is not that Day 1 tells us much about November. In a state like Ohio, it provides very limited evidence in either direction. These Day 1 numbers are so good for Democrats we *know* this gap is going to narrow over time, and EV just isn't that big of a piece of the pie in OH (unlike TX, FL, NC, GA, etc.). But the available data does not support claims that Democratic turnout is struggling. If anything, the early signal points in the opposite direction, although I wouldn't read into this too heavily.

סקר המנדטים של חדשות 13 לערב זה: גוש נתניהו עם נתון שיא - 55 מנדטים ישר – 20 הליכוד – 20 בנט – 12 גולן – 10 סמוטריץ׳ – 7 וינטר – 5 רע״מ – 6 הנדל זליכה – מתחת לאחוז החסימה גוש נתניהו בשיא – 55 גוש האופוזיציה בשפל – 50 המפלגות הערביות – 15

Pope warns that ‘watering down’ Christianity’s demands won’t make it more attractive ewtnnews.com/vatican/pope-wa…

.@Pontifex opens Vatican conference to discuss Amoris Laetitia, Pope Francis's 2016 document on the family, controversial for its leniency on divorce: "What kind of Church, then, do people encounter precisely when they are most fragile? Do our communities help them discover that they still have a place, a responsibility and gifts to offer?"

O município com maior percentual de votos para Flávio Bolsonaro no primeiro turno é Nova Pádua (87,02%), uma cidade do Rio Grande do Sul onde 94,06% da população é católica e quase 100% descendente de imigrantes vênetos que fundaram a região.

The Tennessee Catholic Conference asked the state this week to replace the death penalty with life imprisonment without parole, arguing in a statement issued Oct. 2 that doing so “serves justice, protects society, and respects the dignity of human life.” ewtnnews.com/world/us/tennes…

One peril of the internet age is the inability to discern substance from vibes. So "my parish has never been so more" = revival; "the streets of Paris were full of pope supporters" = decisive victory over laïcité; "Look at Leo in the mozzetta" = the pope is an ideological ally.

What you're seeing is the real socio-economic problems that France faces, which can't be cutely papered over by the performative Good Vibes of a papal visit. The pope himself endorsed the equality of French society, and now the state must do the work to ensure that.

What you’re seeing in France is demonic blowback from the enemy of the church and humanity in response to Pope Leo’s visit. Pray for France

Conservative Catholic cognitive dissonance about Leo artfully mirrors their approach to the papacy in general. Francis was inconvenient, so they simply try to block out those 12 years. Now they try to interpret Leo through JPII--because Francis, after all, never happened.