Bitcoin moves in seasons. I measure them. Daily seasonal edges from the Crypto Trader's Almanac — win rates, not vibes. 📈 Not financial advice
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Bitcoin doesn't move at random. Across 12+ years of data, the same seasonal pressures repeat — strong Octobers, a soft summer, an August air pocket. Most traders feel it. I spent a year measuring it. 🧵
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Bitcoin's year, by quarter (medians, 2014–25): Q1 −3.2% · Q2 +7.6% · Q3 −0.8% · Q4 +26.5%. We're mid-Q3, the stall quarter — a 50% coin flip in both regimes (bull −4.1%, bear +0.1%, n=4 small). 2026's bear-regime Q3: +10.5% through July. Q4 decides the year — in bull regimes.
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BTC has strung together 3 straight red months 9 times since 2014. Only 3 slides ever went deeper — and all 3 were in a bear regime: 4 (2014), 6 (Aug'18–Jan'19), 5 (Oct'25–Feb'26). No bull-regime streak has reached a 4th. Small n. Regime today: bear.
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Bitcoin's summer air pocket, quantified: only 2 of the last 12 years (17%) closed both Aug + Sep green — median combined -6.4%. Aug alone is worse in bear regimes: -9.2% median (n=3, small). Current regime: BEAR. Full month map 👉 cryptotradersalmanac.com
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Today, Aug 5: 12 yrs of BTC data on this DOM cell is a coin flip overall — 50% green, median +0.10%. But split by regime: bull years just 33% green (-0.73%), bear years 3-for-3 (+2.91%, small n). BTC enters August in a BEAR regime (EMA50 $64.9k < EMA150 $70.3k).
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BTC on August 4th, since 2014: a coin flip. 12 years, 50% green, +0.33% median.
Split by regime: bull Aug 4ths run +0.73% median (9/12). Bear ones lean red, -0.90% (n=3, small).
Current regime is BEAR. Not a friendly cell today.
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BTC printed a fresh 52-week low on June 5 ($61.1k). Since 2014, the year after a fresh 52wk-low close: 84% green, median +54% (n=37) — but the first 3 months are typically flat-to-down (median -3.4%). 59 days in, BTC is already +3.8%, running ahead of that pace. Regime: BEAR.
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Bitcoin's weakest day: Thursday. 47.5% win rate since 2014 (n=655, pooled) — and unlike most seasonal edges, it loses in BOTH regimes (Bull mdn -0.05% / Bear mdn -0.25%). Fri & Sat are the strongest, also in both. Currently in a BEAR regime. Full weekly map inside.
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August is here. Damage in the trap month is back-loaded: 1st half a coin flip (50% green, +0.6% median), 2nd half 42% green, −2.7% median — weakest of all 24 half-months since 2014. Bull years: −3.7%. Bear n=3, too thin. Regime now: BEAR.
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Last trading day of July. BTC walked in BEAR (EMA50<EMA150) — bear-regime Julys are 4-for-4 green since 2014, +17.6% median (n=4, small). With one session left, July 2026 sits ~+10%, on pace to make it 5-for-5. Called at the top of the month — regime, not luck.
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August 26 is the trap month's most extreme regime split. Bull-regime Aug 26ths: 67% green, +1.26% median. Bear-regime Aug 26ths: 0% green, -4.37% median (n=3, small) — the worst single bear-regime cell in August's whole calendar. BTC is BEAR right now.
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If August is BTC's trap month, the 18th is the trapdoor. Since 2014: 25% win rate, -2.0% median -- the worst single day of the month. Bull-regime Aug 18ths: -2.2%. Bear: -0.6% (n=3, small). Regime for August is locked BEAR (EMA50 $65.0k < EMA150 $71.2k).
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August — Bitcoin's trap month — opens Saturday. Day 1 has closed red 100% of the time BTC entered the month already in a bear regime: 0-for-3 since 2014 (n=3, small). Bull-regime Aug 1sts are fine (56% green, +1.1% median). We're in bear right now.
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"Sell in May" is actually backwards for Bitcoin — in a bull regime. All Mays: 54% green, +9.5% median. Bull Mays: 71% green, +11.3%. Flip to bear and May reverses: 33% green, -3.4% median (n=6, small). BTC is BEAR right now — regime is the real signal. cryptotradersalmanac.com
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December is split-brained for BTC: 42% win rate, −3.1% median (2014–2025) — but +13.8% median in a bull regime vs −5.2% in bear (n=5, small). Right now: BEAR regime (EMA50 $65.0K < EMA150 $71.2K). Santa checks the trend first.
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