In an interview, Freeman Dyson characteristically offered one of the clearest analyses I have read of whether dropping the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki caused the Japanese to surrender, and whether Truman did the right or wrong thing. As he notes, the two questions are very different and often conflated: "It is clear that the Japanese surrender was caused primarily by the Russian invasion and not the bombs - ninety percent to ten percent, perhaps."
Dyson: "There are two totally different questions here, which are often confused in the public mind. It is very important to separate them.
The first is: what actually happened in Japan? Why did the Japanese surrender? Did it have anything to do with the nuclear bombs? That’s one question. It’s a very important question, but it should be kept separate from the second: what did it look like to Truman? How much information did Truman actually have about what was going on in Japan? When he made the decision to drop the bombs, was that justifiable or not? That’s a totally separate question, because Truman actually had very little information. His decision wasn’t governed by what was really happening in Japan—it was governed by what he knew, which is a very different thing.
From the Japanese point of view, their whole strategy in the late stages of the war was to secure a reasonably advantageous peace. By 1945, they knew they could not win; they were never going to conquer the United States. But they hoped to reach a peace treaty that would leave them with some possessions and a politically acceptable outcome. Their strategy depended heavily on Russia. As historian Tsuyoshi Hasegawa shows in Racing the Enemy, Japanese discussions made it clear: the plan was to end the war on advantageous terms with Russian help.
It was vital that Russia remained neutral, since Russia had influence with the United States and was still in alliance with them while the war in Europe continued. The Japanese strategy was therefore to use the Russians to negotiate peace with America, while in the meantime fighting a defensive war for as long as possible. The Army was committed to defense to the last man, as in Okinawa, and everyone assumed they would continue fighting that way.
This whole strategy collapsed when the Russians declared war on Japan. That happened three days after Hiroshima, followed by the attack on Nagasaki the same afternoon. The sequence was: Hiroshima, then the Russian declaration of war, then Nagasaki.
When Hiroshima was bombed, the Japanese Supreme Council—which included about ten people, mostly military and the Emperor—did not even convene a meeting; they did not take Hiroshima seriously. The evidence is clear that Hiroshima had little effect. But three days later, after the Russians declared war, the Supreme Council met within six hours. Everyone recognized that the strategy had collapsed. They could no longer rely on Russia for peace negotiations and now faced the danger of a Russian invasion from the north while fighting Americans in the south. The entire strategy fell apart that morning, and that was the day they decided to surrender.
It is clear that the Japanese surrender was caused primarily by the Russian invasion and not the bombs—ninety percent to ten percent, perhaps. Nagasaki occurred the same day but came too late to influence the decision.
Now, the other question: Truman’s point of view. Truman knew that part of the Japanese government wanted peace, but he also knew that the Army was determined never to surrender. For the Army, surrender was totally dishonorable. That was a serious consideration for Truman, because it meant the Japanese were likely to fight on no matter what.
If the U.S. had to invade Japan and fight street by street in Tokyo, the cost would have been enormous. Okinawa had shown how tough the Japanese were, and they would likely be even tougher defending their homeland. Estimates suggested as many as a million American soldiers might die. Truman saw the choice as either dropping the bombs, in hopes of shocking Japan into surrender, or invading and suffering massive losses. Given that framing, dropping the bombs seemed the sensible option.
Japanese attempts at peace were not very clear. A faction in the Foreign Office wanted to negotiate, but the Army was uninterested. Truman was justified in what he did, and in fact, it is questionable whether he could have decided otherwise. Bureaucratic inertia also played a role: the bombing campaign had already been underway for months with massive destruction of Japanese cities. Stopping suddenly and refusing to use a new weapon would have been politically very difficult. Truman might even have been impeached had he refused to use the bombs.
The power of a president depends on the consent of the military and political establishment, and if most had opposed him, he might not have been able to resist.
So, the answers to the two questions seem contradictory. On the one hand, the bombs did not in fact cause Japan’s surrender. On the other hand, Truman believed they would, so he was justified in dropping them. It’s an ironic conclusion, but probably correct."