I woke up to this basic nonsense being passed around today and tried to remember when it was a thing because it's been awhile. Turns out it was here. I had just gone massively short bonds due to the QRA. TLT fell 10% in two months. Today I am long deltas because of many reasons BUT this nonsense ain't one of them
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
19h
Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.

Sep 25, 2026 · 12:31 PM UTC

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Replying to @dampedspring
best irl real time call i have ever seen in 26 years. ever. the day yellen did the crazy ivan. you knew and when you saw it there wasn’t an ounce of ego that prevented you from telling us. I will never forget that. ever. and yeah, this guys post is worth what you pay for it.
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Thanks my friend
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Replying to @dampedspring
Andy, what do you make of George Robertson non-stop blasting OTM calls on $TLT, seemingly believing the black swan of his wet dreams is coming “any day now”?
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He's not part of my process. I have no idea what he is doing or thinking.
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Replying to @dampedspring
Well, of course this is not an argument for taking a position, but the math seems quite OK for total-return investors with at least a 1-year horizon. Why is it nonsense? I’m not a fan of the guy, but I’m not sure I fully understand your critique.
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Because it ignores the alternative of holding cash. So looks asymmetrical and free money. It's not.
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Replying to @dampedspring
221k followers
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Dude he is head of global macro at the biggest mutual fund company in the world
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Replying to @dampedspring
He’s talking his book! He has a job to do 🤣
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Replying to @dampedspring
Director of retail marketing more like it
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Replying to @dampedspring
If you can’t reason in excess return terms, you can’t reason at all.
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Replying to @dampedspring
We manage our money like a third world country and there could come a time that the market treats our debt accordingly
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Replying to @dampedspring
Fidelity guy is a complete zero. I don't know why he shows up in the feed. As you know, he's in marketing role, not an investor.
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Replying to @dampedspring
Others could be accumulating
Made with AI
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Replying to @dampedspring
Also … Treasury yields don’t “widen” or “tighten” To what? 😂😂😂
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Replying to @dampedspring
TLT is cool until you realize the fund was managed by retail lmao
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Replying to @dampedspring
It gets even worse. The gain/loss computations in that tweet are over a one year holding-period, so you get the coupon to shift returns up. The instantaneous risk of a 100bps move is much greater. Needless to say, this isn't how we usually think about duration risk.
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Replying to @dampedspring
convexity math rarely accounts for the actual duration risk today
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Replying to @dampedspring
People are figuring out convexity and bond basis like it is the 80s lol
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