Options trader. My tweets are not investment advice.
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DYOptions retweeted
MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS RECOVER TO PREWAR LEVELS
Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 98% of prewar levels, reaching roughly 17.5 million barrels per day, according to JPMorgan.
Producers are increasingly bypassing Hormuz through alternative pipelines, ports and ship-to-ship transfers, with 40% of September crude exports avoiding the strait.
However, the recovery remains uneven: diesel, gasoline and jet fuel exports are still around 50% of normal levels, keeping global fuel supplies vulnerable.
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$MSTR 🔥
ARTHUR HAYES SEES BITCOIN AT $1 MILLION BY 2030
Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, with its strongest rally in late 2027 or early 2028.
His thesis: an AI infrastructure bubble bursts as data-center revenues fail to justify massive investment, forcing governments to inject trillions in liquidity.
Hayes expects that monetary expansion to benefit Bitcoin’s fixed-supply narrative, driving demand for the cryptocurrency.
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DYOptions retweeted
GOLDMAN: GULF OIL EXPORTS FULLY RECOVER TO 2025 LEVELS
Persian Gulf oil exports have doubled in September, reaching 23.3 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs.
Crude shipments have recovered to 108% of their 2025 average, but key refined products, including diesel and jet fuel, remain at just 50% amid refinery outages and shipping risks.
Goldman sees the global oil market roughly balanced and maintains its $85 Brent forecast for year-end.
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DYOptions retweeted
*US 30-YR FIXED MORTGAGE SURGES TO 7.3%, HIGHEST SINCE NOV. 2023
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Why did the Fed hike rates in September
SOFTER U.S. INFLATION CUTS FED HIKE ODDS
August core PCE fell to 3.0% YoY vs. 3.3% expected, while headline PCE came in at 3.4% vs. 3.7% forecast.
Q2 GDP was revised higher to 2.2% from 1.5%.
Kalshi now prices a 65% chance of no October Fed hike, versus 31% for a 25bp increase.
kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddeci…
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$VKTX offering closed. Company got additional $547.8M cash. Combined with existing cash reserve $500M from last earning company should have around $1 billion cash.
With a bit over $40 million cash burn per
month it would last another 24 months. Phase 3 might burn faster though but maybe last less than 2 years.
Nevertheless the cash now would take company through most of phase 3 and might get close to NDA stage if no offer.
Current stock offering has 9% dilution and 5% for converts but it will be all worth it.
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$MSTR Bitcoin 🚀
Remember Trump owns MSTR.
BITCOIN TRADERS PILE INTO $90K+ CALLS
Bitcoin is trading around $83,238, but options traders are increasingly positioning for a move above $90,000, with $95,000 and $100,000 also popular strikes.
Institutional flows are improving too: Bitcoin ETFs have recorded eight consecutive days of inflows, including $31 million yesterday.
The positioning suggests upside demand remains alive even as near-term Bitcoin sentiment weakens.
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Core CPI has been trending down, but the Fed doesn’t put as much weight on CPI. It relies more heavily on PCE.
Wait for tomorrow’s data. We may get the data the Fed wants to see. 😆🚀
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