Good first half performance that from Man Utd Guessing Carrick does well with new manager bounce Maybe top 5 Carrick gets 3 year contract and a few hundred mil to spend in summer Next season default back to being rubbish Carrick fired by Xmas 😂 Football like markets is about recognising patterns 😂

This week is a week of noise Clarity not passing is disappointing as it relates to the outlook for the industry in the US (although SEC/CFTC rulings maybe soften that blow) but irrelevant to Bitcoin and wider crypto prices outside of kneejerk reactions Fed hiking 25bps or not is irrelevant to Bitcoin at this juncture and it’s not what’s driving markets The bigger concern is coming into the quarter end illiquidity window If anything is going to flush Bitcoin to test that $72k it’s that But bond markets will continue to be under pressure as spiralling deficits alongside AI dumping duration on the market compete for capital (hawkish Fed doesn’t regain credibility, it just feeds the sustainability concerns into a refinancing window) The AI capex spend will continue to support valuations and sustain growth, so equities will ignore bond markets Bitcoin acts as the hedge when the US and global fiscal sustainability is called into question and anticipates the consequent financial repression and eventual liquidity that must be injected into these markets to prevent the bond market blowing up - debasement trade is back on the narrative menu Plus we are nearing the start of the new 4yr cycle which reflexively will see whales loading up Market is hugely under positioned Bitcoin and largely missed the “Bessent buyback pump” with the world and their dog waiting for new lows into October that haven’t materialised So Bitcoin and crypto remain a buy on dips and equities are likely going to melt faces as they climb the “wall of worry” and force a painful performance chase higher into year end Maybe choppiness into quarter end but don’t be too cute trying to position and get long for the Q4 pump

The dollar is very interesting right now Oil spiking plus the stronger NFP seeing market price in Sep hike …yet dollar trades lower 🧐 Been trading lower since the G20 finance ministers met Aug 31/Sep 1st post which USDJPY dumped Weaker dollar the cure to many ails 👀

The Waller “dovish pivot” today feels significant Back in July he was more hawkish, saying the Fed was at a “ crossroads” and that they would need to consider tightening if evidence materialized of firmer inflation Today, he says “we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation” and he would be inclined to keep rates on hold Warsh got the call for. Bessent and the rest of the FOMC received the message As we’ve been saying, there will be no September hikes Warsh isn’t a hawk…he’s just playing the “credibility games” With the somewhat curious moves in USDJPY (no, USDJPY not lower on perceived BoJ hawkishness - more rate hikes will drive JPY lower as debt sustainability fears are a bigger concern) and now the Fed wheeling out the messengers to cool of on rate hikes, the financial repression games are in full view Both Bitcoin and Gold have received the message

TLDR on Warsh at Jackson Hole: Nothing burger, told us nothing new other than pretending he’s serious about hitting 2% inflation target (Just playing the politics to appear credible without having to actually hike) Big risk event out of the way for markets We can get back to buying Bitcoin and start challenging those big resistance levels ahead of 85k LFG 🚀

The Druckenmiller op-ed is obviously correct I’m sure before becoming Treasury secretary, Bessent would 💯 agree But this is the problem, if the primary deficit is brought back into balance, then growth will slow and politically, if you want to get re-elected or win midterms, that can’t be allowed to happen Debt based fiat economies need ever increasing amounts of debt to grow as the debt intensity of growth rises (requires more units of debt per one unit of growth) Fiscal discipline doesn’t get elected and who wants to be the incumbent that tells everyone they’re going to end the party because longer term it will be better for everyone and the hangover will be less severe In the longer term we’re all dead…and also out of political office so let’s just party on and turn the music up a notch So these people get into office sometimes with good intentions (Bessent said he wanted to reduce the deficit to 3% from its current 6%) but the pressure is there to appease the electorate and also, desire to achieve the administrations goals …and the “money printer” is sat there, seductively, ready to press at any time to make it all happen So then the incumbent justifies the use of it like a drug addict wanting a final hit Just this last one, then we’ll be able to grow our way out of the debt, put ourselves on a sustainable path to debt reduction But they take another hit and it feels so good and easy, they want more of it “We’ll double the buybacks to $4 bn - actually, they can be unlimited and we can tap $1 trn in the TGA” Warsh will be the same He may principally believe that a smaller Fed balance sheet is better long term But once funding rates start to adjust higher to reflect the growing deficit and markets demand higher yields to fund it, which becomes painful both for the economy and markets, then the money printer will be starring seductively at him saying “you can press my button and we’ll increase the RMP purchases and all of this pain goes away” So of course, Warsh will quickly abandon his ideological view of reducing the Fed balance sheet and expand it likely to new highs, convincing himself that once things stabilise, then “long term” they can slowly reduce it again There’s no way out of this except via a painful adjustment that no one in office is willing to endure nor incentivised to do so So they’ll keep printing, keep the party pumping all the while the value of the currency continues to debase Bitcoin is the checkmate trade It’s going higher forever Laura

Reckon we get Saturday drift and chop into Sunday Then Asia come in Sunday and power Bitcoin through 80k Stop staring at the screens today anon

So much of our long term bullish Bitcoin thesis centres around the fact that debt based, fiat economies are unsustainable They require ever more debt necessitating more liquidity and money printing which consequently debases the currency driving hard assets forever higher in fiat terms We have moments of relative calm where things look sustainable and for some the debasement thesis starts to falter (even the Fed think they can normalise the balance sheet for brief periods 😂) Until we predictably reach another stress point whereby the Fed or Treasury need to act to provide liquidity and financially repress markets We witnessed that in Q4 last year where stress began to show in money markets which led to the end of QT and subsequent expansion of the balance sheet again via the RMP purchases Now we have stress appearing in the longer end with the AI competition for duration and ever spiralling deficits that need funding So we’re seeing the buy backs and “operation twist” to try and relieve the pressure at the long end and finance it at the shorter end Of course stress will then start to show up in the front end again (which might temporarily dent this rally) We suspect that leads to the RMP purchases becoming uncapped and they will grow larger Cue the macrobaters trying to say that’s just technical liquidity management and not money printing or Qe 😂 That’s why we always remain long term bullish (and get called perma bulls) because there’s nothing that can stop this train and it continues to play out perfectly The end game of the debt based fiat system was reached in 2008 but no one had the stomach to allow the full reset and deleveraging that was required So they flooded the system with printed money, transferred the debt from the private sector to public sector and committed to forever monetising that debt and growing it in perpetuity We’re at a other cross roads or end point and all the debasement games are being played again So you can draw your lines on charts, pick your levels all you want - good luck Or you can just be long and ride it to new cycle highs Bitcoin as we like to say is the “checkmate trade” and this is another moment we get to say “checkmate”

This is where this is all heading You don’t own enough Bitcoin 👇

This is a really important point You can’t compare yields today with pre 2000 levels when the levels of debt are magnitudes higher In terms of “interest cost” we are indeed in new territory Debt levels don’t matter until they matter The challenge for governments and central banks is to maintain credibility and keep the illusion alive that all is “serviceable” whilst quietly providing the liquidity and debasing the currency at a slow enough rate so that markets don’t lose all confidence - it’s a delicate balancing act Emerging markets provide plenty examples of the death spiral that occurs once confidence vanishes The currency collapses and no amount of rate hikes help as you enter a vicious circle where massive hikes designed to prop up the currency simply kill growth and make the country less investable and capital continues to flood out of the country Clearly, we’re not yet at that point (old school economists and market “experts” still comparing yield apples with oranges 😂) But the debt spiral is set to go parabolic as the debt is refinanced at these levels The financing for that will ultimately need to come from the Fed Indeed, we expect the Fed balance sheet to explode over the next few years, despite Warsh’s desire for a smaller balance sheet The size of the balance sheet is driven exogenously, outside of Fed control/decision making Equities will however continue higher in Fiat currency terms (look at the equity returns in Venezuela in local currency terms 🚀) But ultimately money will flood to “hard assets” Both Bitcoin and gold are likely to surprise everyone in how high they go over the next few years

Guys, I have quite a convincing imposter, please be careful @davidbrickel80 Using just the one “l” in Brickell I have reported but please also do so and be careful!