OpenAI is reportedly about to cut token prices 40-50%. Preemptively. Because they think Anthropic is about to do the same.
I need you to sit with this one, because I've been laying out the pieces for 3 months now and this is the piece that makes the ai trade lose steam maybe even makes it ugly if you will.
Two weeks ago I showed you compute repricing +50%. Same seller (SpaceX), two buyers (Google & Anthropic) in the same week. That's the input everyone was excited for and it makes sense.
Today the output is the token, the only thing any of this actually sells, is about to get cut in half. Not because serving got cheaper. Because enterprises are choking on their bills and demand doesn't clear at these prices.
Input up 50. Output down 50.
I've been doing this long enough to know there's no clever name for that.
It's not a land grab. It's not "scale economics." It's selling dollars for 80 cents and announcing a sale on the dollar.
And look I'm not some AI bear, actually the opposite and I think we still early.
I posted yesterday ago that analysts I know are personally burning $100K a year in tokens. The product is real, and it changed our lives forever. That was never the question.
But even Citadel just put out a note called "Tokenomics" and you should read it, it’s very well put.
But basically the token spend benchmarks rolling over.
Companies quietly downgrading to cheaper, good enough models. Usage leaderboards disappearing. Surprise token bills in earnings calls.
Their conclusion, stripped of the prose, AI is no longer gated by what it can do. It's gated by what it costs. Cost curves. Rationing. The boring physics every miracle eventually meets.
Now stack my last two weeks on top of each other.
- Compute: scarce, repricing up.
- Financing: circular, everyone in this trade is everyone else's customer, lender, and collateral.
- Backlogs: $638 billion of promises at
$ORCL alone, all of it underwritten by the labs' FUTURE revenue.
And the labs just volunteered to shrink the revenue. Per unit. By half at least.
A price war at the top of a debt financed pyramid. I keep turning it over looking for the version where that's fine. Haven't found it, if you find it please dm.
Even with this though, the two or three balance sheets that can lose money longer than everyone else can stay solvent.
Everyone in the middle, the resellers, the markups, the wrappers, wakes up to find their input is now someone's loss leader.
And the Chinese open models are sawing through the floor from below at a much much cheaper price while everyone argues about the pricing model in the US.
When intelligence becomes a commodity, it announces itself the way every commodity does.
With a price war.
The hype was what AI could do.
The reckoning is what it costs...