Investment Partner and CLO @variantfund ex @ycombinator founder, attorney @Cravath tweets are not investment/legal advice

Daniel Barabander retweeted
We are fortunate to have 3 papers accepted to this years NeurIPS. The first is AsyncMesh - a technique for asynchronous updates across both data and pipeline parallelism simultaneously. Second is NuMuon, which shows the low-rank structure we observe in Subspace Networks is also present and can be exploited under Muon-style optimisers. The third introduces a technique to finetune open-weight models in the Protocol Learning setup. This is significant as prior to this work, this kind of distributed training required architectural changes, and hence starting from scratch.
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
Derive is not just an options exchange The flywheel from MMs hedging delta on perps is well on its way Liquidity begets liquidity
>"Derive feels too small" People clearly aren't thinking about Derive properly: it's more than an options exchange and it's ceiling for "relevance to global finance" is higher than almost anything else in crypto Here's how I see it: To start, options will continue to command more attention this cycle than anyone expected Why? Twofold. 1) There's no other way to get >20x leverage on alts. When the market gaps, Derive PnL cards will print like crazy 2) Options are the only way to social signal positions traders _actually_ believe in long-term. Crypto was built on deeply held, contrarian, long-term beliefs and perps are too fickle to support them (liquidations make them sub-optimal for expressing long-term beliefs) We just saw this with @koolkrypto223. Traders will flock, and the flywheel continues But all that attention is only the hook. Derive IS NOT just a crypto options exchange v3 will scale the number of markets massively. Options on commodities, equities, alts... only liquid, traded 24/7 on Derive And all of those long-dated expressions from earlier will open the door for perps on Derive... The market makers on the other side are forced to hedge, creating a source of price insensitive flow that will subsidize perps liquidity in a way that's only possible on Derive The ceiling from there isn't limited. We've been talking about programmable finance for years, but progress has been slow In the limit, with liquid options and futures markets on a single, programmable venue, traders can express and tokenize any view on any assets on any time horizon. This would be true programmable finance, the holy grail, that much of this industry has been building towards this whole time
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
also shout out to @PossibltyResult who joined our team roughly a year ago with his final case study an extremely out of the money take that onchain options were coming while everyone was gulping perps. elijah and dan pressure tested the thesis by talking to every team building (and who had built) in the onchain options space, and found the courage to pursue a startup five years into its journey because they believed in the thesis and they believed in the team. we have always tried to back founders doing their life’s work. i think that focus is, in part, what elijah joined variant, and it’s definitely a key part of why we made this investment.
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
shout out to @nickforster and the derive team for their persistence long term belief in what they’re building even while some of the derive seed investors removed them from their website.
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
Just bought 8600 5000/7000 ETH call spreads for march 2027 Basically if ETH is below 5k by then we lose $238k But if ETH goes anywhere higher, we make all the upside on 8,600 ETH At $6k that's $8.3M profit At $7k that's $17M profit 1x downside, 71x upside. Perps could never provide this because - to get 8.6k eth exposure I'd need like $4M in collateral (5x perp) - Even with a 5x perp if eth dips to just 1.9k I'd be liquidated and lose it all before the expire - If funding rates are 10% it would cost me over $1M in funding fees to hold the position until late march Instead I paid $238k all in and never need to spend another cent ty for the copy trade @koolkrypto223 it just took 10 minutes on the @DeriveXYZ RFQ system note: dcf cap holds drv (and these spreads)
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
This chart shows Derive's options only volumes over the last 2.75 years (we have perps + spot also) Sep 14 2025: $8m in volume + $2,000 in fees Sep 14 2026: $240m in volume + $40,000 in fees Yes onchain options are growing, and we just hit an inflection point
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It makes sense why this is catching on - there is so much information packaged into an options trade. It is inherently communicative, dramatic, and therefore - social.
This is the biggest copy trading moment outside of memes in a long time Reach out if you're building a social trading app or a wallet w/ an existing perps offering, it's time to add options now, or you'll be late
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
This is the biggest copy trading moment outside of memes in a long time Reach out if you're building a social trading app or a wallet w/ an existing perps offering, it's time to add options now, or you'll be late
We've probably seen close to 9 figures of copy trades on @koolkrypto223 's spread There's an opportunity here for wallets to integrate @DeriveXYZ and make it easy to trade options on-app
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
NEW EPISODE - Crypto is Ready for Onchain Options | Nick Forster, CEO of @DeriveXYZ Crypto options have lagged perps for years. @nickforster thinks that gap is finally starting to close. In this episode, he joins @TrustlessState to break down why options took so long to mature, how the October 10 crash changed trader behavior, why being right on $ETH can still get you liquidated in perps, and where options fit across speculation, hedging, and yield. CHAPTERS --- 0:00 Why Options Lagged 5:56 The October 10 Shift 9:03 Options vs. Perps 21:37 Market Size & Economics 27:26 Derive’s HYPE Strategy 30:01 Why Onchain Matters 33:09 Inside the Risk Engine 35:51 What V3 Changes 38:02 Options in Everyday Apps 41:53 Does Volume Lift Prices? 44:08 Following Derive
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I believe @Pluralis represents the only viable solution to the future of training frontier models - give the people ownership. If you want to solve the alignment problem, the solution lies in economic alignment with the people.
My position is typically to focus on getting things to work rather than making noise about what needs to be done, but enough people have messaged me in last 24 hours that felt I should write some brief thoughts. The tl;dr is I completely agree with the sentiment but think no-one aside from Pluralis is earnestly moving towards a realistic solution. The reality is without some mechanism to pool resources for the creation of the models - with hardware that can't be taken away - the situation remains exactly the same, with a faint hope that Nvidia pours enough money into various challengers that the open <> closed model gap stays narrower for longer. I see very few scenarios where an individual group can pull ahead to the frontier (and even if they do, they will be subject to the same dystopian regulation the labs are now speedrunning towards). It must be a community driven effort to achieve this and hence we require a substrate to pool compute, data, and expertise effectively. This looks like p2p/distributed/multiparty training using hardware that has already been purchased to do local AI, thats sitting idle half the time, is physically controlled by individuals and can't be taken away. Repurposing this hardware for creation of the models and not just consumption is absolutely critical. I don't view most of the other things in this list as meaningfully moving the needle towards a good outcome. RL post-trains as a service.. ok great you made it easier for enterprise clients to use open models. Inference providers serving openweights... ok you host models and make money I don't see what you've changed. Open harnesses... my concern was never that I'd be locked out of the harness layer. Local inference... I don't really care about qwen3.8 27b running at 200 tok/s I want deepseek v4 pro running locally, and I want a better model than deepseek v4 pro. I wanna own and impact the process not the output. We don't have this yet because its hugely technically challenging - it requires solving fundamental research problems around low-bandwidth training and a re-write of most layers of the training stack. This is what we've been doing with extreme urgency for the last year and what we will continue to do until its working. Once such a system exists however, we will look back and find it strange that private companies ever felt they would be able to monopolize and control something this fundamental.
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This is what convexity looks like.
A perp has a fixed slope. An option has convexity. For a perp, twice the move gives you twice the P&L. For an option, the curve shrinks when wrong and grows when right. That's why option payoffs are asymmetric .
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
🎙️ New @Edge_Pod 🐎 Could Derive V3 Be "The Lighter" of Onchain Options on Ethereum? | DeFi Frontier 0:00 - Intro 2:29 - Building blocks for onchain options 7:56 - The massive TAM for onchain options 11:28 - What is Derive V3? A new ZK app 16:48 - Where will V3 launch? 22:12 - Could V3 be a zkRollup like Lighter? 26:37 - Advantage of onchain options over TradFi 31:47 - New tokenized stocks and RWA markets 35:50 - Onchain options still in the early innings 42:16 - V2 settled billions, V3 is about trillions 46:06 - Closing 🙏 Thanks to @DeriveXYZ CoFounder and CEO @nickforster for joining us!
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
This exceeded all expectations and continued to train with 40+ nodes in a single stage, 370 across the swarm and GPUs in multiple continents. TPS reached over 250k tok/s. Compute wise, this local hardware swarm is equivalent to 40 colocated B200's and would run $150k per month, potentially more depending on the provider. Thankyou to omk, mehmet and everyone else who helped us track down bottlenecks mid-run.
A 13B stress-test has just finished in Agora and instead of winding down we're going to ramp the contributor count until it blows up. If you have access to good local ML hardware, point your agent at agora-testing.pluralis.ai and join the pre-train for a few hours. Currently at 165 consumer GPU's.
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
If I explained what I think the world will be like in 2 years I would be institutionalized.
shit is so weird now that it literally sounds like i'm making things up when i'm talking to people not in the know (99.9% of the human population atp)
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Daniel Barabander retweeted
A 13B stress-test has just finished in Agora and instead of winding down we're going to ramp the contributor count until it blows up. If you have access to good local ML hardware, point your agent at agora-testing.pluralis.ai and join the pre-train for a few hours. Currently at 165 consumer GPU's.
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There is a massive opportunity for geo assets with @OctetProof - scope to jurisdictions you want and block those you don’t - all onchain so the geofence actually holds and without the painful UX of KYC
Robinhood apparently is behind an effort related to “tokenized real-world assets including Stock Tokens” for AMC Entertainment (and supposedly 190+ other companies). They are not registered under U.S. securities laws !!!!!! I find this practice to be contemptible, outrageous, disgusting, detestable, inexcusable, vile. How can it possibly be legal? We have no connection to this at all, and do not condone it in any way. We immediately are going to have our outside securities counsel look into this. docs.robinhood.com/rhj Stock Tokens are not registered under U.S. securities laws and may not be offered, sold, or delivered, directly or indirectly, in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons. Offers and sales of Stock Tokens are subject to restrictions in other jurisdictions, including, without limitation, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. A full list of the jurisdictions in which offers or sales are restricted or prohibited is available here: docs.robinhood.com/rhj Robinhood Assets (Jersey) Limited is a private limited company incorporated in Jersey, with its registered address at First Floor, La Chasse Chambers, Ten La Chasse, St. Helier, JE2 4UE, Jersey. The Issuer is registered under the registration number 162428. Stock Tokens have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended from time to time (the "Securities Act") or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. Stock Tokens may not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States to, or for the account or benefit of U.S. Persons (as defined in Regulation S under the Securities Act ("Regulation S")), and (ii) may be offered, sold or otherwise delivered at any time only outside of the United States and to transferees that are not U.S. Persons (as defined in Regulation S)…. ©2026 Robinhood Markets, Inc. All rights reserved.
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