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future.news/WC2026
Joined May 2012
1,546 Photos and videos
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Thinking in Probabilities. Why 90% Is Not What Your Brain Thinks It Is

When the market sits at 90 cents, most people think "almost certain" A pro thinks: one out of ten times I will lose everything and I need to know in advance what that will cost me That void in

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Blind copytrading can destroy a bankroll

Game theory explains why better than any risk warning In a single player game, copying a winning move makes sense. You see the action, you replicate it, you get the same result Prediction markets are

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England vs Argentina: Five Games, Forty Years, One Rivalry

Wednesday's semifinal is the sixth World Cup meeting between these two teams. The first five built one of the most loaded rivalries in football 1962 - Where it started, quietly Group stage,

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World Cup 2026: One Month Out

The market is doing what it always does before a major tournament. Everyone's stacking all favorites at 80¢, 85¢, 90¢ - Spain, France, England, Brazil - building "safe" portfolios that will resolve to

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10 Rules You Need to Understand When Moving from Web2 Bookmakers to Prediction Markets in 2026

I spent years working inside traditional bookmaking. Built models, analyzed thousands of lines, watched how the house edge actually works from the other side of the table Now I live on prediction

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Prediction markets are not just a financial tool. They are a mirror of collective intelligence

What will emerge in people First is epistemic honesty as a survival skill When you pay money for a belief you stop believing what you want to believe. You start believing what is probable The market

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Everyone chasing 30% ROI traders. Nobody asking how many trades that covers

That number means nothing without distance. Here is why What ROI actually is and why it matters ROI is the single most important number for evaluating a prediction market trader. Not win rate. Not

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Merlin update. March 19–26

-- Copy trading big upgrade "We switched to reading directly from Polymarket's settlement feed. Trades hit much faster, nothing gets missed" What u get: u enter closer to the same price as the trader,

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Winning feels right. Losing is guaranteed

The psychology of small odds and the Illusion of high Win Rates Introduction Across prediction markets, sportsbooks, and short-duration trading, participants systematically gravitate toward positions

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Parletto: Bringing Parlay Mechanics to Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have become very good at one thing: pricing single events You can bet on whether a candidate wins an election, whether inflation hits a target, or whether a court ruling goes one

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Polymarket Arbitrage Is Not a Math Olympiad

DONT REINVENT THE WHEEL Somewhere along the way, prediction markets acquired a strange intellectual fashion: people started throwing around optimization theory as if trading on Polymarket required

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When a Poker Player Discovers Prediction Markets

Every few months, a new trader arrives in prediction markets with quiet confidence and a very familiar toolkit He has studied poker strategy. He understands bankroll management. He knows the Kelly

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