Bitcoin & Crypto Market Intelligence | decodejar.com
Not financial advice
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Remember I said people will be more bearish at the wave 2 low than they were at 58k. Watch.
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My view back in January was that the business cycle was going to heat up and cut Bitcoin's correction short. It was the right idea, my indicators flipped positive within two weeks of this reply, and that 60k low in February was never really broken. Overall I ended up being right, but it took longer than I expected to play out and see Bitcoin reverse.
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Makes total sense that Bitcoin would hit its wave 1 high just as the remaining crypto influencers turned bullish.
Bitcoin is holding up pretty well and may still run higher, so I don't want to jinx it, but what if the wave 1 peak was at 87.4k?
90k target is based on 0.618 extension of waves 1+3, projected from 4. BTC came close, but it's not the only way to measure it.
Inverse 1.618 the depth of wave 4 targets 87k, and wave 5 equals wave 1 method targets 82k. Two out of three targets hit means wave 1 top is likely in or close to it, unless sub-wave 5 becomes extended.
If the wave 1 high is in, wave 2 is a miserable affair. Sentiment will typically be worse than at the macro bottom. People will be convinced the bear market is back to stay.
This is characteristic of a wave 2 corrections in general, exacerbated by sidelined investors piling in late at the top of the breakout.
The 21 week ema current sits at 74k, the 200 day sma at 71k, both are rising. Usually at least one of these will be tested at some point before price continues significantly higher.
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Pacing the frontier 🙃
Claude Opus 5.5 takes the top spot on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, along with a 20% price cut and larger cache hit discount
Claude Opus 5.5 brings Anthropic to parity with GPT-6 Astra on evaluations like Terminal-Bench 4.0 and AutomationBench-AA, while extending Anthropic’s lead in agentic knowledge work.
At max effort it scores 58 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, the highest score we have measured by several points. Anthropic has cut Opus pricing to $4/$20 per 1M input/output tokens (Opus 5: $5/$25) and cache reads from $0.50 to $0.20.
Key takeaways:
➤ Consistent strong performance, with leading scores on six of the ten Intelligence Index evaluations: Humanity's Last Exam 61.4% (previous best 59.1%, Claude Fable 5.1), SciCode 66.9% (63.1%, Fable 5.1), GDPval-AA v2.1, AA-Briefcase v1.1, AA-Omniscience and AutomationBench-AA. On Terminal-Bench 4.0 it scores 59.6%, level with the leader GPT-6 Astra (xhigh) and +11 points over Opus 5. It remains slightly behind on CritPt, AA-LCR, and GDP.pdf
➤ Leads in agentic knowledge work: On AA-Briefcase, our private frontier knowledge work evaluation, it reaches an Elo of 1822. This is +143 over Fable 5.1, ahead on both analytical quality and presentation, and is the first time Anthropic has reached presentation quality surpassing GPT-5.6 Sol. This evaluation tests whether models can produce accurate and well-presented professional outputs using our open source reference agent harness, Stirrup
➤ Level with Opus 5 on cost per task despite 1.6x the output tokens: Opus 5.5 (max) uses ~119k output tokens per Intelligence Index task, against ~73k for Opus 5 (max), ~78k for Fable 5.1 (max) and ~27k for GPT-6 Astra (max)
➤ Four of five effort levels sit on the Intelligence vs Cost per Task frontier: Opus 5.5 max, xhigh, high, and medium all sit on the Pareto frontier, costing less or outperforming other models scoring 50+ (GPT-6 Astra, Claude Fable 5.1, and Claude Opus 5)
Other model details:
➤ Context window: 1 million token context with image and text input support, unchanged from Opus 5
➤ Pricing: $4/$20 per 1M input/output tokens, down 20% from $5/$25 for Opus 5. Cache writes $5 per 1M tokens for the 5 minute TTL, down from $6.25. Cache reads have been further discounted to $0.20 per 1M tokens, down 60% from Opus 5’s $0.50. This is a 95% discount compared to uncached input pricing, up from 90% on previous Opus models
➤ Effort settings: Five effort settings (low, medium, high, xhigh, and max). Intelligence Index evaluations were run at all five with Anthropic's default fallback enabled
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I wouldn't say I was 100% confident on any particular level that Bitcoin could reach over the next 6-12 months, though new ATHs seem likely, but I am confident that Altcoins are going to have a big moment in the markets. I think the deepest liquidity will still be searching for the more mature networks, but there should be opportunity at all levels.
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Bitcoin is holding up pretty well and may still run higher, so I don't want to jinx it, but what if the wave 1 peak was at 87.4k?
90k target is based on 0.618 extension of waves 1+3, projected from 4. BTC came close, but it's not the only way to measure it.
Inverse 1.618 the depth of wave 4 targets 87k, and wave 5 equals wave 1 method targets 82k. Two out of three targets hit means wave 1 top is likely in or close to it, unless sub-wave 5 becomes extended.
If the wave 1 high is in, wave 2 is a miserable affair. Sentiment will typically be worse than at the macro bottom. People will be convinced the bear market is back to stay.
This is characteristic of a wave 2 corrections in general, exacerbated by sidelined investors piling in late at the top of the breakout.
The 21 week ema current sits at 74k, the 200 day sma at 71k, both are rising. Usually at least one of these will be tested at some point before price continues significantly higher.
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The way it works on Crypto Twitter is you make a couple of great calls, your account blows up, and then you get everything wrong for the rest of your life. I don't make the rules.
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$TAO up 40% now
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Make a nice change and may continue yet, but be aware of the correction that inevitably follows the completion of Bitcoin's first wave.
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There are many methodologies for analysis in trading and investing. Maybe you look at macro or technical, or do both, and use trendlines, moving averages, horizontal levels, RSI, MACD, or whatever it is that you choose, the only thing that matters is that it works for you. I choose Elliott Wave, with fibonacci and geometry as my primary methodology, and I try to combine this and look for confluence in macro. It's not perfect, but over the years I have made it work quite well for me. The only thing you need then is conviction in your ideas, the patience to let them play out, and the ability to shut out the noise from other analysts who have different ideas.
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My favourite tweet of the last 6 months.
$BTC 58k has absolutely no significance on the chart, not sure why so many are mentioning it
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