Hunting maximum reward with minimum risk. Value is what's worth more in the future. Rambler at: candoinvesting.blogspot.com/ ---DYODD- Not Advice
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For the next time I forget, there is no price too low for value stocks and no price too high for growth stocks.
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If you assume stable credit to Q2 2026
Slight quarterly deceleration from 7.8% to 7% this year and 6% onwards in Q2-4 with 1% growth in Q1s & linear LaaS growth based on H2 guide... Propel could be at C$2 in quarterly earnings by Q4 2028.
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I do think this may be a bit aggressive in H2 26 as we haven't seen if the LaaS operating leverage will kick in as aggressively.
On the flip side, this basically assumes 19% growth in the core lending business which I believe can be materially low given applications & trajectory
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Continuously hilarious how Propel seems to care about numbers a few days before and a few days after they happen but doesn't care at all the rest of the time.
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Fun Fact of the 5.7% in 2022, ~0.6 was from higher rates
& Higher rates were ~1.15 of the 4.5 in 2023
So, this scenario has happened 1 time in the last 15+ years and despite all the "Lag" talk, history suggests it would have been now not 2027
For inflation to be 3% with oil and gasoline running at -20%, you'd need the rest of the basket at +4%... Which barely happened when everyone thought everything was out of control following stimmies & broken supply chains.
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The fact is the @bankofcanada has officially entered the random forecasting game. Now predicting that energy (the sole inflation) issue will turn negative next year while everything else will surge & pull inflation above 3%
Do with that information what you wish.
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For inflation to be 3% with oil and gasoline running at -20%, you'd need the rest of the basket at +4%... Which barely happened when everyone thought everything was out of control following stimmies & broken supply chains.
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This is quite the take given the market was literally signalling "Don't do it"
Then the BoC came out and said "We want to do it"
Then the market still had trouble believing they would become of how stupid it was...
Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½%
Markets Lead. Central Banks Follow.
After 36 years studying financial markets, one lesson stands out:
Bond markets anticipate policy turning points before central banks act.
Study history. Follow the bond market, not just the Bank of Canada.
When you build models on "history" (human nature never really changes) then the foresight into the future becomes easier.
bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-…
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Forecasting 3.1% inflation in 2027 is certainly an opinion... It's basically saying "we think that everything that isn't happening will start happening" ... Which is possible but note sure when they entered the random prediction game.
BANK OF CANADA RAISES GROWTH AND INFLATION FORECASTS
The Bank of Canada raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.7%, while lifting its 2027 projection to 2.0% from 1.8%.
Inflation forecasts increased more sharply, reaching 2.9% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027, up from 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively.
The bank also expects Brent crude to average around $100 per barrel in Q4, before gradually declining toward $75 by the end of 2028.
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