Ecoinometrics tracks the signals that matter most for Bitcoin investors: ETF demand, market structure, macro conditions, and risk.
Get the reports
- Tweets 9,750
- Following 233
- Followers 103,198
- Likes 5,523
Bitcoin’s recovery just got an important confirmation from ETF demand.
• Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded six consecutive days of inflows.
• Total ETF holdings are only about 37K BTC below their all-time high.
• This rebound in holdings is much stronger than the failed recovery of May.
Our take: Bitcoin’s move above $80K is backed by persistent demand instead of price momentum alone. That gives the current recovery a much stronger foundation.
2
21
4,443
Want to follow Bitcoin without making market research a full-time job?
Ecoinometrics turns original charts and quantitative analysis into a clear market view you can absorb in five minutes.
Join more than 34,000 readers and get the free Friday edition:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
922
Bitcoin is running with only one engine right now:
• ETFs are carrying the demand
• Corporate buying has largely stalled
• Strategy is still below its usual pace
That’s why even if the recovery persists it is more fragile than when there was a more diverse set of buyers.
5
2
27
7,651
Want to follow Bitcoin without making market research a full-time job?
Ecoinometrics turns original charts and quantitative analysis into a clear market view you can absorb in five minutes.
Join more than 34,000 readers and get the free Friday edition:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
1,483
Three days of outflows for the Bitcoin ETFs:
• That’s not a lot but it does interrupt the strong inflows sequence
• That weakens the support above $75K
• But could reverse after the FOMC meeting
What’s clear is that the narrative around the debasement trade can only go so far when interest rates continue to climb.
2
2
18
8,212
Want to follow Bitcoin without making market research a full-time job?
Ecoinometrics turns original charts and quantitative analysis into a clear market view you can absorb in five minutes.
Join more than 34,000 readers and get the free Friday edition:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
1
1,157
FOMC meeting next week:
• hawkish bias given the inflation trend
• ~60% chance of a rate hike
• the market sees the Fed Funds rate at 4.3% within six months
Feels like headwinds coming for Bitcoin.
2
2
23
6,921
Want to follow Bitcoin without making market research a full-time job?
Ecoinometrics turns original charts and quantitative analysis into a clear market view you can absorb in five minutes.
Join more than 34,000 readers and get the free Friday edition:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
1
2
1,201
Bitcoin just had its strongest streak of inflows in a long time:
• 9 straight days of inflows
• a total that rivals bull markets
• strong support for the breakout
This is close to the ideal situation if you expect the start of a recovery.
7
2
29
7,590
Want to follow Bitcoin without making market research a full-time job?
Ecoinometrics turns original charts and quantitative analysis into a clear market view you can absorb in five minutes.
Join more than 34,000 readers and get the free Friday edition:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
1,395
Bitcoin ETF demand has changed direction.
So far this month, inflow days have outnumbered outflow days by roughly 3 to 1.
That’s a very different market from the one we’ve had over the past few months.
7
6
44
9,895
The interesting part isn’t the size of the inflows. There haven’t been many spectacular buying days.
Instead, the improvement comes from consistency. The steady selling pressure has faded, giving Bitcoin a much firmer footing than it had just a few weeks ago.
That’s enough to support a stabilization. Whether it grows into a broader recovery is the next question.
Ecoinometrics tracks the signals that matter most for Bitcoin investors: ETF demand, market structure, macro conditions, and risk. Check it out here:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
1
8
1,638
Bitcoin’s ETF demand has gone through one of its biggest changes in months.
The relentless selling has stopped.
Bitcoin no longer has to fight persistent waves of ETF outflows.
That change alone is enough to strengthen the $60,000 level as a support.
6
8
54
9,843
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin is entering a sustainable recovery, far from that.
But it does mean the market has built a much stronger foundation above $60,000. The next step now depends less on ETF selling pressure and more on whether the macro environment continues to improve.
Ecoinometrics tracks the signals that matter most for Bitcoin investors: ETF demand, market structure, macro conditions, and risk. Check it out here:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
4
1,708
Strategy recently sold around 3600 BTC.
So should Bitcoin investors worry that one of the market’s biggest buyers has become a seller?
Maybe, but the chart below helps put those sales into perspective, they are still tiny relative to Strategy’s holdings.
2
4
45
9,511
The more interesting development is that Strategy is no longer a systematic buyer under all market conditions. That’s a more meaningful shift in a market where ETF outflows still dominate over the longer trend.
Ecoinometrics tracks the signals that matter most for Bitcoin investors: ETF demand, market structure, macro conditions, and risk. Check it out here:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
5
1,775
Bitcoin has been holding around $64K with a few days of positive ETF flows.
At first glance that sounds encouraging.
But honestly zooming out on the chart showing the trend in the Bitcoin ETF holdings, we are not convinced the demand picture has materially changed.
2
3
39
11,039
That’s why we continue to view the recent price resilience with caution.
Without a real change in the direction of capital flows, this is just another bear market rally.
Ecoinometrics tracks the signals that matter most for Bitcoin investors: ETF demand, market structure, macro conditions, and risk. Check it out here:
ecoinometrics.substack.com/
3
1,697