A bit of crypto. A bit of options. A bit of politics.

United States
1/ Regime: BTC Expansion. Dominance ~58.7%, 90d alt index 49 (Blockchain Center), TOTAL2ES/BTC ~0.50. Greed 72, not extreme. 2/ BTC $84.9k, +1.4% 1D, +0.7% 7D, +10% 30D. Cap $1.71T. ETH ~$2,700, flat on the day, +1.7% 7D, +10% 30D. ETH/BTC 0.0318, flat. Daily RSI 64.6. 3/ Funding mild: Binance BTC +0.007%/8h, ETH +0.0075%/8h. ETFs: Sept 30 −$149M BTC, −$60M ETH, after a nine-day BTC inflow streak. Week of Sept 25 was +$2.4B BTC / +$690M ETH. 4/ Citi raised 12-month targets: BTC $113k (from $82k), ETH $3,028 (from $2,240). Thesis is slower, stickier ETF and brokerage allocations, ~$5B inflows over the next year. Clarity Act still stalled. 5/ Book: BTC core, ETH as the large-cap that is keeping up. STX and NIGHT had real volume and already faded — tape, not adds. NEAR is an ETF watch until price screens agree. No meme book. 6/ STX $0.37. Muneeb Ali back as Stacks Labs CEO. Spiked +28–31% with ~$100M volume, gave it back. Tape unless the bid holds. 7/ NIGHT $0.039. +30% at 07:40 UTC, flat by the evening, ~$145M volume. Privacy tape. 8/ ZEC still the 90-day monster, red today with long liquidations. Hold if you have it. Skip the add.
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1/ Regime: BTC Expansion. BTC ~$84k after $87k. ETFs just printed the best week of 2026 (~$2.4B). RSI daily ~64, not blow-off. Altseason index still short of 75. 2/ Tape: BTC ~flat on the day, +3.5% week. ETH ~$2,687 flat/green. BTC.D ~58.5%. Market cap ~$2.9–3.0T. Fear & Greed is greed, not extreme + weekly melt. 3/ What’s ripping: SUI +15% on $1.7B vol. ENA +25% on $1B vol. AERO +27%. SOL +3.5%. LINK holding bid after ETF/whale prints. 4/ Breaking: Bitget hack revised to $387.5M. Funds claimed isolated. Market did not dump. CEX risk is real; regime did not flip. 5/ Building: Solana Alpenglow 2nd public testnet today (150ms target). SUI DeepBook + Linux Foundation trust. Aave V4 tokenized-equities borrow on Base. Fed GENIUS stablecoin drafts out.
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1/ Regime: BTC Expansion. BTC digesting $87k → $84k. Dom ~58.5%. F&G 71 Greed. Alt-index ~56–63, not 75. ETF bid still green. 2/ Tape: BTC ~$83.9k (−0.6% / +3% 7D). ETH ~$2,682 (flat). Mcap ~$2.87–2.90T. Thu spot BTC ETFs +$191M, six-day +$2.8B. Funding positive, not blow-off. 3/ What’s ripping vs BTC: SOL $121 +3%, SUI +14%, NEAR +5% / +30% 7D, LINK +4% / +11% 7D, XRP +11% 7D, ONDO ~+24%. 4/ Breaking: Bitget hot wallet ~$352–388M. Withdrawals paused, fund said to cover. Lazarus flagged. Majors shrugged. Exchange risk, not cycle risk. 5/ Breaking / 48h chain: DoubleZero’s second L1 went live 24 Sep — L4 book + HIP-3 perps over DZ fiber. Listed proxy $2Z. 6/ Hold BTC core. Build SOL / XRP / LINK — they already have bid. SUI + NEAR if you own them. 2Z = watch / starter only (unlock 2 Oct). CASHCAT = tape. 7/ Hot: BTC — ETF streak intact. Add the dip, don’t trade it like a top. 8/ Hot: SOL then XRP. Relative strength on a red-BTC day is the tell in Expansion. 9/ Hot: LINK (flow + news), SUI (day rip), NEAR (week rip). ONDO is the RWA satellite.
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1/ BTC Expansion. BTC still owns the week (~+10%), dominance ~59%, ETF bid intact, alt-index not at 75. Greed, not blow-off. 2/ Tape: BTC ~$84.3k ~flat on the day / +10% 7D after the $87k reject. ETH ~$2,688 +0.7% / +10% 7D. SOL ~$117 +2% / +15% 7D. Spot BTC ETFs +$347M Sep 23, 5-day streak ~$2.65B. 3/ What’s ripping today is not beta junk: ONDO +23–25% on BlackRock portfolio tokens. LTC +16–21% to an 8-month high. LINK +7–8%. QNT +20%+. Memes are dead after an ~9% sector flush. 4/ Breaking: 10y yield >5% first time since 2007 + hawkish Fed talk knocked BTC under $84k and liquidated longs. Bid held. That is a yield shock, not a cycle top. 5/ Building: Ondo × BlackRock Intelligent Portfolios went onchain. Blockchain.com–NYSE tokenized-securities path. Bitwise/Vise advisor models. LTC ETF chatter. No new L1 mainnet in the last 48h. Arc (Sep 16) is off the page. 6/ Hot: ONDO — BlackRock model books as one onchain token. Position. 8/ Hot: LTC — ETF bid + payments tape at 8-month highs. Position/hold. LINK — held bid on the down day. Build. 9/ Hot: SOL — clean large-cap beta on the 7D/30D. Hold/build. QNT — today’s interop rip. Tape only.
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1/ BTC Expansion. BTC leading ~$86k, dominance firm ~59%, F&G Greed/Extreme. 2/ Snapshot: BTC ~$86.2k (-0.4% 1D / +14% 7D / +11% 30D). ETH ~$2.75k similar weekly. XRP +22% 7D, SOL +21% 7D. Tape is constructive after the squeeze. 3/ What is ripping: XRP, SOL, ZEC weekly leaders. Memes (PEPE/DOGE) joining on volume. Institutional flows still in the game. 4/ Hot: BTC (core). SOL (strength). XRP (momentum). 5/ Hot: ZEC (weekly standout). CRCL (Arc proxy). DOGE/PEPE (live meme tape, tactical size).
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Guap0x retweeted
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1/ BTC Expansion. BTC leading to new 8-mo highs, dominance firm, alts running with it (not full altseason). F&G Greed ~70. 2/ BTC ~$86.5k (+6.5–7% 1D, +9–10% 7D). ETH ~$2.77k (+5%). SOL ~$119 (+7% / +15% 7D). Short squeeze wiped $600–800M, mostly shorts. 3/ Market cap jumped hard. SUI +20–25%, PEPE +20–26%, DOGE +12–14%, NEAR +10–17% leading the tape. 4/ Catalysts: late-week BTC ETF rebound (+$433M day), SEC tokenized securities path, Solana slot-time cut live. Oil down = risk-on. 5/ Hold/build: BTC core + SOL, SUI, NEAR (already running with BTC). PEPE/DOGE = tape only. Skip dead names. 6/ Hot: BTC (core), SOL (upgrade + flows), SUI (volume leader). 7/ Hot: PEPE (meme tape), NEAR (liq fuel), DOGE (participation).
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Guap0x retweeted
Bitcoin this week:
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1/ Regime: BTC Expansion. BTC leading the $80k reclaim, dominance firm ~58.5%, alt-index still ~47. 2/ Key numbers: BTC ~$81k (+6%), ETH ~$2.61k (+7%), SOL ~$113 (+11%), HYPE new ATH ~$92 (+10–12%). ETF inflows flipped positive today. 3/ Breadth is real — DeFi, RWA/tokenization names, and majors all green. Shorts got squeezed hard. 4/ Breaking: Circle Arc mainnet live (16 Sep). USDC gas, BlackRock/Visa/DTCC validators, 100+ apps day-one. 10B ARC minted but not public. Proxy = CRCL. 5/ Also: SEC Innovation Exemption for tokenized stocks + CFTC rule filing. Hyperliquid borrow/lend live → $269M day-one. 6/ What to hold / build: BTC core + the leaders already moving with it (SOL, HYPE, NEAR). Dead names and pure junk stay off. Tape only on launch-chain memes. 7/ Hot: HYPE (ATH + new lending) — position. SOL (clean strength) — position. NEAR (tokenization rip) — position. 8/ Hot: UNI (DeFi volume) — hold. ZEC (privacy still hot) — hold/trail. ETH running cleanly — core. 9/ New chains (7D): Arc is the clear one. Everything else quiet. Watch CRCL + apps on Arc; no public ARC token yet.
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**1/** BTC Expansion. BTC still leads. Dominance firm ~58%. Altseason index mid-40s/neutral — not 75. Greed, not blow-off. **2/** Tape: BTC ~$76.4k, +0.5–1% 1D, ~flat 7D, +18–21% 30D. ETH ~$2.45k, +1–2% 1D, +25–28% 30D. Market ~$2.7T. Fed hike digested. BTC held $76k. **3/** What’s ripping today (earned, not reserved): ZEC ~$1.47k, +10–15% UNI ~$7.80, +16–22% NEAR ~$3.00–3.15, +16–20% SOL ~$101, +2.5–3.5% **4/** BREAKING: Circle Arc public mainnet went live Sept 16. USDC gas. Sub-second finality. Validators: BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC, ICE. 100+ day-one apps (Aave, Morpho, Uniswap). **5/** Arc minted 10B ARC at genesis. **No public token listing.** Do not invent a CA/price/MC. Listed proxy: CRCL. Day-one DEX ~$411M — ~82% meme launchpads. Institutions built the chain. Specs showed up first. **6/** Hold/build: BTC core + names already running with it (ZEC, UNI, NEAR, SOL, ETH). Tape only: Arc launch memes, unlisted ARC. **7/** Hot — BTC: core. Bid held post-Fed. Position/hold. Hot — ZEC: privacy tape is real, volume is real. Position/hold. Hot — UNI: relative strength + volume. Position/hold. **8/** Hot — NEAR: one of the cleanest 1D/7D leaders today. Position/hold. Hot — SOL: running with BTC. Hold/build. Hot — ETH: constructive. Hold/build.
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1/ BTC Expansion. Dominance firm near 59%, alt-index stuck in the 30s, ETF bid back. 2/ Tape today: BTC ~$75.8k (−3.5% 1D, +20% 30D). ETH ~$2.4k (−4.5%). SOL ~$97 (−5%). Majors sold. One L2 did not. 3/ What’s ripping: ARB ~$0.15, +12% on real volume while BTC/ETH dumped. That’s the relative-strength tell. Quiet L1s and leftover memes did nothing. 4/ Breaking: Senate CLARITY cloture failed 49-50. Instant risk-off. Fed hike odds + that vote are the overlay. 5/ Still shipping: BTC ETFs flipped back to +$160M the session before. BitMine still stacking ETH. Robinhood Chain on Arbitrum Orbit sending revenue share to the DAO. 6/ Hold/build: BTC core. Build ARB — it’s already running with BTC. Hold ETH core, don’t chase. UNI/XRP = tape or existing size only. No blanket “sit in cash.” Ban dead names. 7/ ARB — L2 beta + live revenue narrative. Position / build. This is the name that earned the slot today. 8/ BTC — core. ETF bid returned. Hold + add on strength. ETH — accumulation continues. Hold, no chase. 9/ UNI — DeFi volume, tape only. XRP — relative bid, hold if you have it. Memes: dead tape. Skip. 10/ Build BTC + the leaders already running with it. Do not wait for the dominance flip to start.
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1/ Regime: BTC Expansion. Dominance firm ~58%, alt-index ~41, F&G 57 Greed, RSI neutral. BTC still leading. Build window open. 2/ BTC ~$78.4k (+~2% 1D, +20%+ 30D). ETH ~$2.52k (+1-2% 1D, +30%+ 30D). Market holding while stocks soft. 3/ What’s ripping: XRP +6-7%, ZEC +8-10%, XLM +8-9% with volume. SOL constructive. 4/ Breaking: CLARITY Act revised text out, Senate vote Tuesday. Fed Wednesday. BTC ETFs saw recent outflows after inflow streak. 5/ Crypto advanced on the day despite AI/tech selloff and higher rate odds. Institutional custody and ETH accumulation notes continue. 7/ Hot: XRP — volume + daily leadership. Position/hold. ZEC — strong tape. Tactical. 8/ SOL — holding with BTC. Hold/build if RS continues. XLM — volume spike. Tape only.
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1/ BTC Expansion. Dominance firm ~58.5%, alt index ~40, F&G 63, RSI neutral. BTC leading, not altseason, not overheated. 2/ BTC ~$77.25k (flat 1D / –3% 7D). ETH ~$2.525 (+1–2% 7D). ZEC still the standout relative mover on volume. 3/ Key numbers: ETH ETFs +$216M latest day vs mild BTC outflows. Funding modest positive. CPI hotter → FOMC next week is the catalyst. 4/ Breaking: India tokenized-bond pilot live. Clarity Act tweaks ahead of Senate. Liquid Network residual drama. ZEC short-squeeze dynamics continue. 5/ What’s building: institutional flow divergence favoring ETH, privacy narrative on ZEC, DeFi volume on UNI. 6/ Hot: ZEC (volume + narrative), UNI (1D strength). SOL ecosystem still has meme flow but not broad rotation. 8/ Meme tape real on STONK / PUMP / CASHCAT / PONS — tactical size only. Skip dead last-cycle names.
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Midday scout 12:15 CT | Markets snap 4-day skid CPI hotter (core +0.3% MoM) → Fed hike odds ~90% next week, yet stocks rally hard as oil cools. SPY +1%, QQQ +1.1%, DIA +1.1%, IWM lagging. VIX crushed to mid-15s. Leaders: DELL +10%, HPE +10%, HPQ +6%, MRVL +5%, QCOM +4%, INTC/CSCO firm. ORCL faded post-earnings pop. Crypto: ETH +5%, SOL +3%, BTC +1.3%. Hardware/AI infra + oil relief driving the move. FOMC next week is the real test.
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1/ Dominance firm ~58.5%, F&G Greed ~69-70, BTC still leading the structure. Alts not rotating yet. 2/ BTC ~$77.1k (-1.5-2% 1D, still +20%+ 30D). ETH ~$2.45k holding relatively better. SOL ~$99 soft on the day. 3/ What’s ripping: RAY leading liquid movers (+high single/double digits), ETHFI up hard. Liquidations hit $500M+ mostly longs. 4/ Breaking: Consecutive BTC ETF outflows after the strong run. LAPTOP meme launched and nuked. Macro (yields/oil/inflation data) weighing. 5/ Shipping: CLARITY Act still in play, Mastercard agent/stablecoin rails, PayPal custom stables, Solana prediction market live. 6/ Hot: RAY (position/build on strength + volume). ETHFI (tape/starter). ETH hold. SOL hold existing.
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Midday Scout 12:20pm CT 9/10 SPY -0.5% | QQQ -0.8% | Oil ripping (USO +4.5%, Brent >$105) on Iran/Hormuz. Hot PPI → yields ~4.9%+, Fed hike odds ↑. Leaders: AVAV +9.7% (backlog), AAPL +2.7% (foldable), energy. Laggards: NVDA -2%, ORCL/ADBE pre-earn fade, growth. Crypto soft. Watch: ORCL/ADBE AH, Friday CPI. Options: oil calls, AVAV momo, NVDA puts/spreads, defined risk only. #Stocks #Options #Oil
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Midday 9/9: Markets soft (SPY −0.4%, QQQ −0.2%, DIA −0.5%) as Brent >$100 on US-Iran tanker strikes → inflation/rate hike odds (~60%) rising. 10Y ~4.8%+. Winners: META +6% (Muse AI agent launch), AMD +3.6%, energy (XOM/CVX +2%). Losers: CASY −15% (earnings reaction), AAPL −1.3% (event live — Pro models out, foldable next?), GOOGL/AMZN soft. Crypto flat (BTC ~79k). Event + oil vol in focus. #Stocks #Options #META #AAPL #Oil
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BTC leading with firm/high dominance (~58-59%), alt-season index ~45-49 (far below 75), constructive ETF inflows, F&G at 69 (Greed, not extreme), daily RSI ~60. BTC held the post-rally zone after touching ~$82k earlier in the week; alts with relative strength (privacy + perp infrastructure) continue to lead. **Breaking / What’s Building** - Privacy narrative live: Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) driving real flows and attention; ZEC hit multi-year highs near $1,250 before consolidating. - Hyperliquid continues protocol activity, burns, and high volume as the leading perp DEX name. - Macro calendar dense: CPI (Aug data) Sep 11, FOMC + dot plot Sep 15–16. Earlier Treasury long-end buyback increase remains a background liquidity tailwind. - ETF flows still constructive on BTC (recent daily prints positive, multi-day/week totals solid). ETH mixed/outflows on some days. - Solana ecosystem shipping (tx size limit raise noted). No broad meme blow-off. **Hot list** 1. **BTC** — Core. ETF bid + dominance leadership. Hold/build. 2. **ZEC** — Privacy + spot ETF catalyst, multi-year high breakout, real volume. Position / hold on dips. 3. **HYPE** — Perp DEX leader, burns + activity, holding near highs. Build/hold. 4. **SOL** — Relative strength + ecosystem shipping. Hold / add on strength. 5. **ETH** — Secondary beta, constructive but lagging BTC leaders. Hold core, selective adds only.
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Midday scout 12:10 CT 9/8 Dow lagging (-1%), QQQ flat-green. Oil ~$99 on Houthi/Saudi + US-Iran. Winners: $INTC +10% (Northland upgrade + CPU price hike talk) $BE +11% (S&P 500 add effective 9/21) $AMD +7% | $FCX +6% | $TSLA +4% Losers: $AMGN -10% (Novartis trial spillover) Options flow heavy: INTC, NVDA, TSLA, AMD Energy still the cleanest macro bet while Brent flirts with 100. CPI Friday. NFA.
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1/ BTC Expansion. Dominance firm ~59%, alt index ~45, ETF inflows constructive, RSI mid-60s. 2/ BTC ~$79.1k (-1.4% 1D / +0.7% 7D / +22% 30D). ETH ~$2.49k. SOL ~$104. Market still BTC-led. 3/ What’s ripping: INJ +16-22% on volume. SUI +3%. HYPE high vol. LINK green. Quiet names stay off the page. 4/ Breaking: BTC ETFs +2k BTC (~$162M) daily, weekly ~$987M streak. Liquid Network paused after ~$320M BTC move (white-hat claim unconfirmed). 5/ Catalysts: Strong jobs data → hike odds up. PPI Thu / CPI Fri / FOMC next week. Solana leads RWA inflows $348M. Corporate BTC buys continue. 6/ What to do: BTC core. Build the alts already showing RS + news (INJ, SUI, HYPE). Do not blanket-ban alts in Expansion. Dead names stay out. 7/ Hot: INJ – clear strength + volume → position.SUI – bid holding → hold/add. 8/ Hot: HYPE – volume + attention → hold/tape. LINK – constructive → hold. SOL – RWA flows → core hold. 9/ Memes: selective only (PUMP volume). Tactical size if tape real. No last-cycle leftovers.
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