Weekend coastal storm update...
We are still about 72 hours from the potential start of a coastal storm (nor'easter) influence either here locally or somewhere in the NE US, and we STILL have no definitive clarity on the track and potential local impacts, if any. Ensembles are not much help either, as they are largely following their own operational counterparts.
Two scenarios are shown today:
1) A coastal low/nor'easter on the European model (left image) that is tucked below Long Island and less than 50 miles off the New Jersey coastline. In this scenario, it would be a multi-day event from later Friday night through Sunday night, producing heavy rain of 1-4" from far Eastern PA to the coast, with the highest amounts found nearest the coastline. Wind gusts of 25-35mph out of the northeast for a prolonged period would be the result, and 35-45mph+ near the shore points. Moderate to major coastal/tidal flooding, and significant beach erosion would also occur. This is the worst case scenario that was shown by the European model today, but that doesn't make it right... or even realistic necessarily.
2) A coastal low/nor-easter that hits Southern and Southeastern New England much harder, and spares this area from most impacts as indicated by the GFS model (right image) that is instead located about 75 miles east of Boston, MA Sunday morning. Our area sees a few wraparound showers (light) late Saturday night into early Sunday AM for parts of NE PA and Northern NJ only, a little breezy but nothing exciting - maybe 15-25mph gusts much like today. And the only concern would be near the shore points with minor coastal/tidal flooding. This scenario is matched by today's Canadian model and most short range guidance at max range, but this too is not necessarily the correct solution.
As we said a few days ago, please do not to engage or blindly share whatever you see on social media from unvetted "sources" of information. We'll continue to do the monitoring this week and provide the forecast responsibly as it becomes more clear, but there is no need to panic in the meantime or cancel plans just yet.