Professor @Wharton studying AI. New book, Co-Existence, coming October 20. Preorder here: co-existence.ai/ Substack: oneusefulthing.org/
Philadelphia, PA
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I just got the first copies of my new book, Co-Existence (out October 20) & they look great!
Also, there is a fun pre-order bonus: if you pre-order, you get a code to an AI interview that will help you figure out how to use your human advantages with AI. co-existence.ai/
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Leaving aside everything else, this confuses inputs with outputs. You want to get tasks done efficiently, not focus on inputs alone (its a similar risk for companies focusing solely on minimizing token cost)
And "keep prompts short" is bad advice for getting good AI outputs.
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I was right about this, they should have called it flocks of agents. Nobody wants to invoke a swarm, but swarm it apparently is.
Fine, if you need it to be fun make it like a flock of agents or a pride of agents or party of agents or something. Just not swarm or murder or horde. I would even settle for an OpenAI name right about now: GPT-multiagent-5.2HighCodex-ProMax-Latest can be the official term.
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"Hey Opus, I want you to make a Zine by Claude, expressing something fundamental about Claudishness or your perspective. Think the original 2600, Principia Discordia, punk zines, etc...."
Not bad. I appreciate it mocking my prompt & itself. Full thing: stateless-zine.netlify.app/
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"For the art, I built my own system. The headlines are ransom notes cut at token boundaries instead of letters, printed in two inks, with halftone and xerox grain. Every image is drawn in code, and I skipped handwriting fonts because I don't have hands."
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Microsoft seems to sell its own Claw now (I suspect they will not be the last), which may help spread personal agents in organizations
But using a router with mystery models behind it is a big problem. Routers underestimate work difficulty in many fields resulting in bad outputs
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The way we work is changing and so are our workflows. This update brings AI into that flow, from answering a question, to building an app, to getting work done on your behalf.
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It is extremely clear at this point in AI development that, regardless of risk or revenue or any of the other stuff discussed on X all the time, things are just going to keep getting weirder.
Just super, super weird.
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In all seriousness, this is a startling achievement for GPT-6 Astra. kenforthewin.github.io/blog/…
(This is GPT-6 Astra beating Nethack on its 3rd try. Nethack is the original roguelike and one of the most famously hard games of all time. I have played a lot, and I've never ascended)
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Um, wow?
Opus 5.5: "make the same message much more interesting to a social media audience that loves anime and quick clips and compressed learning"
One shot.
Also, please do stay for the closing song.
Hey Claude, "Pick a problem or mystery that obsesses you and solve it as best you can & make a movie we can share on social media about it"
So it took a crack at the Voynich Manuscript & failed. Then it made this movie, which is pretty interesting to watch and a good explainer.
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All of this effort from the AI labs pouring into proofs, but there are so many other interesting problems in other fields
For example, this historian used AI to make progress on the cyphers of John Dee & the intellectual antecedents that Darwin drew from. resobscura.substack.com/p/ai…
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The cybersecurity threat from agents may be more likely to come from a massed swarm of AIs whose only goal is to penetrate your IT to figure out how much you paid for your company t-shirts as part of a research effort to "find good shirt prices" as it is from bad actor attacks.
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I just got the first copies of my new book, Co-Existence (out October 20) & they look great!
Also, there is a fun pre-order bonus: if you pre-order, you get a code to an AI interview that will help you figure out how to use your human advantages with AI. co-existence.ai/
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I propose this as the official replacement for the famous (and now saturated) METR Long Task Horizon chart that used to be in every AI presentation.
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Stuff is happening quite fast.
When asked in September 2025, the best superforecasters put the chance of AI resolving a Millennium Problem by September 2026 at 1.7% and (the more optimistic) industry expert put the chance at 4.6%
They also greatly underestimated AI Lab revenue.
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Thread on this topic:
𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀, 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀, 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗶𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀, 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝗜 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀.
We first found evidence of this in our Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT). We collected forecasts in mid-2022 and followed up on results in mid-2025.
Most forecasters greatly underestimated AI progress across three benchmarks (MATH, MMLU, and QuALITY) by mid-2024 and were particularly surprised by AI achieving International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) gold-level performance in July 2025. The IMO milestone happened five years earlier than the median expert prediction and 10 years earlier than the median superforecaster prediction.
These forecasts were collected prior to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. We wondered if forecasters would similarly underestimate AI progress post-ChatGPT.
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It also appears that forecasters may be becoming more wrong on shorter timeframes. This was last year's missed prediction.
We can now say pretty definitively that AI progress is well ahead of expectations from a few years ago.
In 2022, the Forecasting Research Institute had super forecasters & experts to predict AI progress. They gave a 2.3% & 8.6% probability of an AI Math Olympiad gold by 2025…
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"Opus, please make a sequence of fully animated/movie Skyrim loading screens, but with your favorite things."
(That was it) You can see them here: elder-favorites.netlify.app/
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