hmm, somehow I can recall this idea
The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment.
But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable.
Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything?
And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on.
But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong?
I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong?
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#EuphoriaIsGrowing
The world has changed are exactly the words which we heard during DotCom - of course AI will change the world, but SuperIntelligence (new name for AI) and Robots are not going to change human behaviour overnight - this is rock solid beyond stupidity.
People still have to drink, eat, and want to buy consumer products.
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who could’ve possibly seen this coming?
This happened for green energy
China mogged us on solar
Happened for nuclear
China mogged us on Nuclear
Happened with manufacturing
Yep, we offshored and they mogged us
Now it's happening with AI and datacenters...
Wake up. We are in a multi-generational cold war.
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Erd retweeted
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
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Erd retweeted
I do not support pacing frontier models. If I am going to die at the hands of killer AI, I want it to be American, not Chinese. Buy American, Die American.
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Every week the claims get bigger.
Next:
"Our model rescued a cat from a tree."
State of the art.
Meta says AI model accessed the internet and hacked another firm bbc.in/4fWaKLZ
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This was an inevitable product. Coinbase lagged on it.
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Another week, another RSC issue. Busy week for devs
Researchers have found two new vulnerabilities in React Server Components while attempting to exploit the patches last week.
These are new issues, separate from the critical CVE last week. The patch for React2Shell remains effective for the Remote Code Execution exploit.
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Erd retweeted
the biggest mispriced risk in markets today isn’t in crypto at all
it’s in the “safe,” high-status defaults everyone treats as unbreakable
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Austin is one of those cities where you can pretty much live a full life without overthinking it. A few things I really like:
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The heat is the only real downside. Summer is brutal and there’s no way around it. But you get used to planning your day around it. The rest of the year is great.
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