What should investors be watching for over the next several months? Eric Nuttall highlights two key developments he’s watching closely in the energy market.
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42 days to go until the mid-terms, and pressure is mounting on President Trump to do anything or say anything to get energy prices down. Position accordingly...we are.
Giant sucking sound coming out of China: Chinese visible oil inventories fell 35MM Bbls last week...the fastest week-over-week pace on record (!), and are now at their lowest levels since May 2025.
JP Morgan commodities team writing what many of us have been thinking: “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.” I've asked the most informed energy people on the planet one question and no one has an answer..."how does this end?"
We remain in the danger zone and with each passing day of status quo things get worse. No one knows at what point the system breaks, but if this continues, we will all find out where that is together.
Something not being talked about enough: the new mega-deduction tax policy. Just met with a $22 BN oil producer...their expected tax savings = ~7% of our modelled '27 cashflow (at $70WTI). Hearing even bigger numbers for others.
The amount of free cashflow being generated right now is staggering: in August, 4 of the 6 largest share buybacks were by energy companies, and August was the largest month of buybacks for the energy sector since June 2022..."we remain bullish"!™️
Trump: "I think the war is going to end immediately after the election. They can’t hold out any longer. They’re desperate to try and affect the election..." 55 more days of 4MM+Bbl/d draws = 220MM Bbls. We're going to need a new chart axis!
My god how far we have come as a country in just over a year…a Liberal saying: “In the world we need to live in - not in a magical world - in the world as it is not as we wish it to be, this is the most productive way to be a clean and conventional energy superpower and it makes complete sense to do that.”
China bought the world some time, but that time has now run out. This war was supposed to be over in 2 weeks...what if there is now no end and this is the new normal?
With 60 days to the US midterms, $240/bbl diesel, $4.10/g gasoline, and the US 10 year at 4.75%, the pressure on the US President will only get greater in the days ahead to “do anything” or “say anything” to get the oil price down.