We used portfolio Kelly criterion to size bets against a $100 bankroll, maximizing expected log ending wealth.
Using Jev’s probabilities, we evaluated all win/loss combinations, assuming independent games and no ties. We priced contracts at the robinhood ask + a 2¢ fee allowance, with a $1 payout on a win and $0 otherwise.
We optimized over whole contracts with a $3 minimum per selected position.