chief data plumber @alliumlabs | building the system of record for onchain finance | prev dir. eng ml @primer_ai, ai @stanford πΈπ¬
New York, USA
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We're sharing our latest update report on the state of stablecoins & payments.
Read about supply, payments, Treasury demand, cross-border activity, and agentic and card payments!
Our new State of Stablecoins and Payments report is out.
We were going to wait until the end of Q3, but with the CLARITY Act Senate vote here, we're sharing an initial version.
So far in 2026:
Supply: $303 billion, up 6% in a year
Treasury demand: about 58 cents of new demand per dollar of supply (Citizens x Allium estimate)
Payments: at least $401 billion, up 42%. Businesses receive 58% to 64%
Cross-border: 0.31% of fiat payment value, growing 64% against 9% for fiat (FXC Intelligence x Allium estimate)
Agentic payments: 29 million a month on x402, at 6 cents each
Cards: $108 million a month on one issuer, 8x in a year
allium.so/reports/state-of-sβ¦
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$295B in stablecoins β ~$170B in incremental Treasury demand
But the real finding is composition.
Payments and dollar savings balances stick through volatility. Exchange balances churn with trading cycles.
That's the difference between durable Treasury demand and flow that leaves. You can only see it onchain. Great work by the team with @citizensbank π
What does stablecoin adoption mean for U.S. Treasury demand?
We worked with @CitizensBank to answer that question using Alliumβs onchain data.
The result: a new report connecting how stablecoins are used onchain with their impact on U.S. funding markets.
The analysis finds that ~$295B in stablecoin supply translates to an estimated ~$170B in incremental U.S. Treasury demand. But the more important finding is where that demand comes from: payments, dollar savings and onchain activity behave very differently from exchange-held balances.
This is exactly the kind of work we want to do more of at Allium: combining institutional expertise with onchain intelligence to answer questions that increasingly matter to global financial markets.
Read the full report from Citizens + Allium: citizensbank.com/corporate-fβ¦
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ethn retweeted
Solana accounts for 12% of onchain RWA market cap.
But 32% of RWA spot volume.
We worked with @Solana to look beyond assets issued and ask a different question: how are RWAs being used onchain?
Across 12 months of data, we found $14.7B in RWA spot volume on Solana, 43M trades, and a market increasingly defined by smaller, more frequent transactions.
The full report maps 37 issuers across fixed income, private funds, equities, commodities and active strategies -- and looks at where issuance, ownership and trading are actually happening.
Read the full report: allium.so/reports/solana-rwaβ¦
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ethn retweeted
Trump just said the CFTC is working to bring Hyperliquid to the US legally.
What started as a crypto platform is evolving into a house for all of finance, as equities, commodities, and pre-IPOs now account for over 50% of volume.
Millions of new traders could be onboarded, alongside an influx of issuers, brokers, market makers and infrastructure providers.
24/7, live Hyperliquid data will become a must-have for any serious trader.
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ethn retweeted
If Rule 611 is rescinded, the best-execution duty doesn't change. The evidence behind it does.
Any firm whose best-ex review leans on protected quotes has a process question to answer.
@AlliumLabsβs letter to the SEC: standardize evidence, not outcomes.
sec.gov/comments/S7-2026-20/β¦
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Financial markets are changing faster than the frameworks we use to measure them.
Allium submitted comments to the SEC supporting rescission of Reg NMS Rules 611 and 610(e).
We asked for something narrow: standardize evidence, not outcomes.
Full letter: sec.gov/comments/S7-2026-20/β¦
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More on what a common measurement vocabulary would look like and why it should be built incrementally: allium.so/blog/allium-commenβ¦
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Pre-IPO markets trading onchain are getting more accurate.
The first two markets missed the IPO open by 24% and 40%.
The last two, SpaceX and CXMT, missed by less than 4%.
Next up is Unitree, one of Chinaβs leading robotics companies, which is expected to IPO this week. On Hyperliquid, traders are pricing it at 4x its IPO issue price.
If that sounds extreme, it is.
But traders have now called two IPO opens in a row with remarkable accuracy.
Will they make it three?
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Hiring a Product Marketing Manager at Allium!
The job: markets now run 24/7 onchain, and institutions need it translated. You've been inside an institution, you've shipped at a startup, you can write. Join @alex_n1n and I on the marketing team!
Seawater, meet freshwater.
Many other roles open too: jobs.ashbyhq.com/allium
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We used onchain data to estimate Circle's Q2 earnings last week within 0.05% accuracy.
Before Circle reported last week, our research team built an independent estimate of their reserve income using three public inputs: adjusted USDC circulating supply, Coinbase wallet labels, and published rate schedules.
Our estimate: $667.4M.
Circle reported $667.7M. (off by $330K on a $668M line item)
USDC reserve income is a function of supply, distribution, and rates. All visible onchain if you have clean wallet attribution.
A similar approach works for any crypto company with meaningful onchain activity. Stablecoin issuers, lending protocols, exchanges with onchain treasuries. If the financial inputs live on a blockchain, you can reconstruct the quarter before it's reported.
If you're evaluating onchain data as an alternative data source, read about how we did it in our weekly Allium Research newsletter:
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ethn retweeted
"It was a bright and sunny Friday afternoon, when a ping came in from the CEO: ' I have a quick question.' "
That'll scare your data scientist friends around a campfire! What every data scientist fears is somehow even spookier for the Blockchain.
As the 'Bloomberg for Crypto', @AlliumLabs sits at the intersection of Data Warehouse, BI Tool, and Data Provider β an exciting but spicy triple intersection.
I couldn't wait to sit down with @ethanyish , Allium's CEO, to talk to him about Data Agents operating in this danger-zone. As many of us long-time data plumbers have experienced, AI is reducing the cost of curiosity; which for chain data is really exciting.
Check out the new episode of @Theoryvc's In Practice, where we discuss answering data questions for all of blockchain's data.
piped.video/watch?v=dGng0QG8β¦
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I went on @theoryvc's In Practice podcast with @BEBischof and talked about what it takes to make blockchain data usable for the world's top financial institutions (on a ferris wheel!)
We talked about:
-> Why blockchain data is a Turing machine's output, not a database - and what it takes to make it queryable
-> Why my title is Chief Data Plumber (5PB in one copy, ~30PB replicated worldwide)
-> How AI agents shift the leverage from tool experts to domain experts
Inside our semantic layer: 12,000 dbt models and an attribution dataset built by humans, accelerated by agents
And yes, we're hiring engineers who want to solve problems at 3%-of-the-web scale - reach out if that's you
Full episode + blog linked below
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v cool, agentic payments are coming.. i just reserved my Cloudflare Wallet tag: ethanyish.cloudflare.pay!
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Fun to be on, thank you for having me!
π¨ Ep. 94 of @TokenizedPod:Β Why Robinhood Are Going All in on Tokenized Stocks and Prediction Markets
@sytaylor isΒ joined by:
π @HadickM, GP, @dragonflyvc
π @Sikes_, COO, @public
π @ethanyish, Co-Founder & CEO, @AlliumLabs
To discuss:
π³ Embedded wallet acquisitions and consolidation trends in crypto infrastructure
βοΈ Monetization challenges and value accrual for standalone infrastructure providers
π€ Comparing embedded wallets to Plaid's integration moat and maintainability
π οΈ Limited DeFi integrations needed versus traditional fintech like Plaid
π Stablecoin adoption challenges for US brokerage on-ramps and payments
π Tokenized stocks' small scale relative to Robinhood's core equities business
π§ Tokenized stocks as a global expansion strategy for US fintechs
π Institutional demand for 24/7 trading and tokenized collateral for weekend risk
βοΈ Stablecoins overindexed in consumer cross border payments versus fiat
π Prediction markets surge driven by politics, sports, and institutional hedging
***
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
0:30 Embedded wallet acquisitions and consolidation trends in crypto infrastructure
2:16 Monetization challenges and value accrual for standalone infrastructure providers
5:48 Comparing embedded wallets to Plaid's integration moat and maintainability
9:49 Limited DeFi integrations needed versus traditional fintech like Plaid
12:26 Stablecoin adoption challenges for US brokerage on-ramps and payments
14:52 Tokenized stocks' small scale relative to Robinhood's core equities business
16:36 Tokenized stocks as a global expansion strategy for US fintechs
23:00 Institutional demand for 24/7 trading and tokenized collateral for weekend risk
31:02 Stablecoins overindexed in consumer cross border payments versus fiat
39:43 Prediction markets surge driven by politics, sports, and institutional hedging
***
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